December 26, 2005

Phoenix we have a problem - listing explosion update


For the folks that don't live here, I can't tell you how incredibly interesting it is to see an entire city go up for sale at the exact same time. You would have guessed we have some big manufacturing plant close down. Or maybe a toxic spill.

You drive down streets where it's odd to see a home WITHOUT a for sale sign up. Like that one homeowner must be stubborn or something, holding out, or missed the memo to leave.

Here's the listings. These are just amazing. Absolutely amazing. When the speculators get out, they seriously GET OUT.

6/30: 11,665
7/20: 10,748
7/30: 11,655
8/10: 13,099
8/30: 15,042
9/10: 16,716
9/20: 17,516
9/30: 18,799
10/10: 20,073
10/20: 21,806
10/30: 23,770
11/20: 26,616
11/30: 26,811
12/20: 27,580

84 comments:

Anonymous said...

keith,

I've noticed 5 cars from AZ, 3 from CA , and 2 from NV cruising my neighborhood in TX just within the past week. Don't know whether they are visiting for the holidays or are on scouting expeditions, but I've never seen this before at any time of the year.

keith said...

I'm telling ya, I'm hearing the hot investor money from Arizona has left this state and is actively looking for a place to park in Texas

foxwoodlief said...

Yes, here in Phoenix all the people I work with are a buzz about Austin. Everyone knows someone who is moving there. Hello? A city voted one of the best cities to live on a consistent basis? A city with a diversified, non-real estate based economy? One that continued to grow even after the high tech melt down of 2000? A city where homes are expensive but more affordable than just about any other major metropolitan area and with a mild four season climate? One in a state that has seen no real growth in home prices for six years and where after they pass a tax reform bill for property taxes you won't have to mortgage your firstborn to pay property taxes? This later point probaly helped keep home prices down and staves off a lot of investors.

Over a year ago I lost faith in Phoenix and the path they have taken over the past five years. Suburban sprawl, lack of investment in the central city, the loss of Fortune 500 companies, an economy built purely on growth and not production. A city that one offered affordable homes one can buy with the below national average incomes with a relatively tolerable climate has turned into an expensive, over-crowded clone of LA with triple digit temperatures and smog. With the lack of leadership that could have built growth boundries (Vistancia? Verrado? Homes in Maricopa?) and if only 10% of all the constructions in the past five years had been centered in the Central city, what a difference that investment could have made. A real city with a street scene? Preservation of the environment, high rises living that uses less water than single family homes?

Can you say future ghetto? I saw a home in Surprise this weekend by a major builder (I once bought a home by this builder and thought they offered a great product at a great price) and it looked like a home one would build for low income housing and only 1400 sq ft, no front or back yard and it was almost $200 a sq ft base price! In Surprise for gods sake? You can drive from I-17 west to 75th ave from I-10 to the 101 and the whole area that once was a middle class area is now tattered and slummy and many abandoned strip malls. Talk about a waste of resources and areas that could have been rejuvenated instead of going future out to virgin land!

Austin: I chose it after my search in mid-2004 because i couldn't see any value any where else unles you want to live in a small, dyiing town along the Mississippi in Iowa where you can buy the former "McMansions" of the 1880s, 5000 sq ft Italiante mansions with marble fireplaces and great craftsmanship that in todays dollars would have cost A mil for $85,000! Who says prices and values can't fall? Well I was drawn to the Austin after exploring San Marcos just south of Austin and had found a lovely 2000 sq ft custom home from the mid-70s on 1/2 an acre in mint condition by the University for $158,000. Since I work in the medical field I didn't want to commute to San Antonio or Austin to work and hospital/medical jobs in my field in San Marcos are limited (though there were openings there for my field) I decided to spend a little more and go to a less "Texan" city. Austin has always been in but not of Texas! It is a liberal city that doesn't want to be a carbon copy of other cities. It was the only city in Texas that over whelmingly voted against the ban on gay marriage (though Texas did as a state ban gay marriage). So I decided I'd rather live in a beautiful city with a hip urban scene, great resturants, great music, good univeristies and colleges, a diversified and high tech economy, TREES, WATER (three lakes, Town Lake, Lake Austin and Lake Travis) close to Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, the Gulf Coast....what isnt there to love about Austin? Hey even Lance Armstrong lives there!

Yes, you'll see many more out of state tags as more people decide they want a lifestyle and quality of life at an affordable price, clean air, pro-environmental outlook, liberal values (inspite of the fact that Crawford is nearby) and a temperate four season climate!

Anonymous said...

Foxwoodlief,

I am very interested in Austin and will be taking a trip in Feb to check it out. Can you help me with regards to recommending some nice areas to start.

Anonymous said...

Fox:

Don't speak too soon. Once the secret is out the same people that ruined Phoenix will ruin Austin.

Anonymous said...

The state gov. didn't pass the school refinance that was supposed to lower property taxes. FYI

Anonymous said...

More on Texas real estate:

It is true the best housing values to be found today are in Texas. Also, there is no state income tax or state property tax.

The sales tax is high and the local property taxes are high, as that is the primary source of funding for public education there. Local property taxes run between $2 and $3 a square foot per year in most places, and is placed on assessed value, not what your granddaddy paid for the property years ago. The gap between haves and have-nots is wider than in most other places, as Texans place little value on social services, and much value on one's ability to care for one's self. The public schools are very good in areas of affluence, and are abysmal in poor communities. Politics are controlled by those who tend to favor the haves, so it is more likely that state government will be virtually gutted before there is a state income tax there.

If the predatory vultures have targeted Texas as the next place to make a quick buck, then Texans would be wise to sell out after a quick run-up before their bubble, which has so far escaped them, bursts as well. For now, one can buy a fantastic home there for $100 a square foot or less.

keith said...

$100 a sq foot? Wow - you got me thinking about buying some texas real estate.

Seriously, you can just follow the speculators, buy early, sell early, and cash in.

The only problem is that it might be too late. As people in Texas (and speculators) read about the devastation around the country as the bubble pops, even they might not want to buy any more either.

keith said...

Finding the Next Phoenix

By Nicholas Yulico
TheStreet.com Staff Reporter

Want to turn some heads at your next cocktail party? Tell people that buying real estate in Texas is a better bet in the short term than investing in California. It might sound bizarre, but it's what some real estate gurus are telling their investors.

To get a feel for which real estate markets were hot in 2005 and in previous years, you could practically throw darts at maps of California and Florida to find winners. Arizona and other Sun Belt areas didn't perform too shabbily either.

But the question on many wise real estate industry minds is whether these states can keep up their torrid pace of sales and price gains.

One belief out there is that pricing is peaking in these markets, partly because speculators (who bought houses solely as investments and provided artificial demand in recent years) are starting to exit. Thus, there might not be too much to gain by buying a home in such states, at least for the short term.

Experts suggest that areas like Texas and the Carolinas could be next year's winners. As for next year's stinkers, they'll likely be in areas that rely heavily on manufacturing, such as Detroit, Cleveland, Buffalo, and Rochester, N.Y.

Phoenix recently took the nod as the nation's hottest housing market, with prices rising 34% year over year for the quarter ending Sept. 30, according to the statistics from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight. Next up were two neighboring southwest Florida coastal communities -- Cape Coral-Fort Myers, which saw prices jump 33%, and Naples, with a rise of 32%.

Besides newfound retirement destinations -- like St. George, Utah, Coeur d'Alene, Idaho, and yet another Arizona market, Prescott -- the remainder of the top 20 price-gainers this past year were cities in Florida and California. This growth shows how coastal areas with warm climates continue to see much demand.

foxwoodlief said...

Anonymus, I didn't say the bill passed yet. It has failed for three years. That is why a law suit was file and challenged school funding and the Texas Supreme court ruled that funding schools only through property tax was unconstitutional and instructed the state legislature to pass a new bill correcting this deficiency or that schools will not be allowed to open in August 2006. The legislatrue is suppose to meet in Jan to try and work out a deal. The Democrats have been obstructionist in the battle with Republicans and neither party seems willing to do what is in the best interest of the taxpayers of Texas or schools. The high cost of property taxes is the most regressive form of taxation and the most counter-productive. This is why Texas ranks near the bottome for home ownership. The fact that there is the possiblity of reform and a significant reduction in property taxes bode well for the market in Texas. If Texas can escape any significant home price run up and the speculative plague that has hit other prime markets and stay with the healthy PE ratios for rents, Income to mortage ratios, and normal iinflation adjusted annual return (which is in effect a zero increase and zero decrease) then this tax reform makes homes even more affordable.

Texas has some 22 million people. It is continuously growing and is in the sunbelt. It is home to three of the largest cities in the country. It has a diversified state economy and oil, ports, beaches, agriculture, high tech, telecommunications, manufacturing. Texas has a NORMAL economy not built purely on Real Estate like Phoenix. It has absorbed a lot of people from New Orleans reducing bloated inventories of apartments in Houston and a lesser degree in other Texas cities. People will move to Texas to LIVE not to Speculate. Austin is a Great city to live and an influx of people and money will help the cities over all economy which is currently growing naturally and whose High tech industry is much healthier than in 2000. Recently an office building in Austin sold for $245 a sq ft, the highest price for any commercial space in Texas. Samsung is building a new fab plant, the office vacancy and retail space vacancies rates have dropped to healthy levels compared to the bubble of 2000. Though rents for commercial and retail and housing are rising they haven't risen enought to over stimulate speculative building. Coming at the end of a bi-coastal bubble they are better poised to prevent the same thing happening there as lenders and builder position themselves to prevent further bubble induced losses. With a lot of people cashing out of their high priced homes in other markets and using that cash to move to Austin with substantial down payments on high quality homes that will insulate them better against any price declines. Would you rather buy a 3300 sq foot home on a large lot with all the bells and whistles for $330,000 or less and put $200,000 down and have a $130,000 mortgage at 6.5% fixed for 30 or even less at 15 years? Or even (for those lucky enough to really have cashed out of CA or Florida) and pay cash and have no mortgage? What city will suffer more? Las Vegas? Phoenix or other cities in the bubble markets where people bought high and have no options but to live like the Japanese for the next 15 years paying off their over-inflated notes?

So, if any investors read this, beware. Texas is not for dummies. The market is unique. There are plenty of homes at affordable prices that you can't buy and flip fast and make a killing nor buy and charge excessive rents to cover you 0 down investment. Until the tax bill is passed next year you will have very high tax bills on top of any other carrying costs. The benefit of any tax reduction won't be in effect until 2007 tax year and won't be actualized until that bill comes due Jan 1, 2008. Texas and Austin are for those individuals who are tired of their over-priced cities and are looking for a better quality of life and who buy to LIVE in their home in Texas. Those who think they can do a Phoenix flip will be burned. No city in Texas is building 60,000 houses a year or experiencing 100,000 new residents a year to push up demand.

Austin Metro is 1.2 mil and Austin about 680.000. The market has plenty of housing units, only 6600 realtors and many neighborhoods that won't be appreciating at even 1% a month. The hot neighborhoods are still high for Austin and Texas and can still suffer a price reduction as people look to the new areas of Austin that are "hot" and "affordable" and price concious. If you can buy new 9 miles from downtown in South or SW or SE Austin for $105 a sq ft or less you'd have to be crazy to buy in the old "hot" areas of 2000 where homes go for up to $500 a sq ft and need a lot of updating. As in any market you need to evaluate value, location, distance from employment and competition. That large Master Planned community is a sure loser as you'll be competing with new build for up to ten years. But if you look for quality at prices per sq ft that are near the historic norm adjusted for inflation and a home and not an investment then Texas has many viable options to those seeking a better quality of life.

foxwoodlief said...

To Anonymous interested in Austin: Febuary is an intersting time to go to Austin. You'll find many things about Austin you'll like. Normally the weather is temperate, you'll be in Cedar Pollen season so if you have allergies, a good try out to see if you can tolerate the pollen. You'll still have lots of trees (mostly the oaks) with leaves but some brown grass. You'll love the Air Port and it continues to expand service across the country with, I think I read recently, to Boston and NY City. The city has quite a few distinct areas. I-35 divides the city in half with the western half part of the hill country and the eastern half part of the black praire. The river divides the city into North and South. Immediatlly south if very desirable with Barton Springs and Travis heights and priced accordingly. Very bohemian in these parts. Just north is downtown and Tarrytown and around Lamar are really great neighborhoods. To th NE of downtown the hottest area is Frenchman's place and other parts of East (traditionally the hispanic/african american side of Austin) are gentrifying and light rai is headed into that area as well (light rail from leander to East Austin is ready to start construction). Ben White (US 71) further seperates South Austin and this area south of Ben While has some great and affordable 80s homes and immediately south of Ben White between S. Congress and Lamar is really interesting and heating up but you can still find homes for around $90 a sq ft. SW Austin from Circle ranch (very large Master planned community) north to the River offers great older neighborhoods and easy access to town. This area is where a lot of interest has shifted over the past several years and is where a lot fo Silicon business are expanding, especially around the OakHill and SW Parkway areas. Newer homes here are a great buy. I bought off 71 on the way to Bee Cave just inside the Austin City limits so close to Lakeway and Austin in a small, master planned community of around 300 homes that is just about built out. It has been under construction for the last four years and struggled during the .com bust and the sluggish real estate market that Austin has experience the past six years. Lakeway is a great upscale area but is 28 miles from town though it is on the shores of Lake Travis. The NW Hills has always been hot as has the area around Mt Bonnel (NW) but prices are high and homes dated and the area has grown so much the past 10 years that it is becoming extremely congested and you pay for location rather than value. The far north is still struggling and suffering from the uncontrolled growth of the 90s and though many homes are inexpensive they are not in areas that are as nice as the NW Hills or South/SW Austin or Lakeway. Austin does suffer some of the worst congestion for a mid-size city with a few years still to go before some of the current highway improvements provide some relief. If you choose to buy north be prepared to pay for those "values" in long commutes. During rush hour I-35 North is a parking lot for 20 miles to Georgetown.

Some of the smaller communites within 28 miles that offer low cost homes are Lockhart, San Marcos, Georgetown, Taylor, Elgin, Bastrop. These are definitely "Texas" towns with the same conservative bent that Texas is famous for. Central Austin, NW Hills, South Austin tend to be the Liberal areas most associated with Austin that distinquishes Austin from the rest of Texas.

Taylor has a lot of old historic homes but economically depressed and one must commute to find employment. Lockhart is similar (but to the SE) and has great potential if it every finds a local economy to boost the area out of poverty. Bastrop is growing but very conservative and quiet. San Marcos 40 miles south of Austin adn 50 miles North of San Antonio is a great area, growing (even if the city is fighting growth every step of the way) and home to a Texas University (LBJs alma mater) not economically depressed, has a great spring and historic square and homes but most people have to commute to San Antonio or Autstin for employement.

Hope that gives you a point of reference to start your visit to Austin. Oh, and visit South Congress, the 6th street Entertainment district, the warehouse district near Lamar for a sense of culture and a horse drawn carriage ride through downtown to see the Capital and the historic areas is worth the money for a taste of Austin.

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