When will it end, nobody knows... but the trend sure is obvious (and ominous) for Phoenix, as the bubble bursts, investors flee, and locals are left holding the bag. Wonder what they'll do with all those condos under construction when people walk away from their deposits?
As is the norm in a housing collapse, it starts from the top and then funnels down... Check out the drop in the high end (top 25%) bracket. But then again, did $800,000 for a 2-bedroom apartment seem sane this summer?
Date Inventory 25th Percentile 50th Percentile 75th Percentile
12/14/2005 14,077 $265,000 $350,000 $550,000
12/07/2005 14,011 $265,000 $354,900 $559,900
12/01/2005 13,832 $265,000 $355,000 $559,900
11/28/2005 13,884 $265,000 $355,000 $560,000
11/21/2005 13,782 $265,000 $355,000 $559,900
11/14/2005 13,295 $267,000 $359,000 $569,000
11/07/2005 12,813 $269,000 $359,900 $574,999
11/01/2005 12,275 $268,000 $360,000 $575,000
10/28/2005 11,959 $269,000 $364,500 $579,000
10/21/2005 11,287 $269,000 $368,800 $589,900
10/14/2005 10,845 $269,000 $370,000 $597,000
10/07/2005 10,169 $269,900 $374,990 $599,000
10/01/2005 9,264 $268,900 $369,900 $585,000
09/28/2005 9,118 $269,000 $369,900 $585,950
09/21/2005 9,352 $269,000 $375,000 $599,900
09/14/2005 8,907 $269,900 $379,000 $600,000
09/07/2005 8,319 $269,900 $380,000 $625,000
09/01/2005 8,030 $269,000 $380,000 $630,000
08/28/2005 7,979 $267,000 $379,900 $626,834
08/21/200 57,769 $265,950 $379,900 $629,999
08/14/2005 7,447 $264,867 $379,900 $629,900
December 15, 2005
Phoenix listings continue to mount, asking prices continue to fall...
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
4 comments:
Wow, two things. First rising inventory at this time of year but the biggie, 75th percentile falling from $630k to $550k. These are also known as "we'll put it back on the market in the spring." This makes the inventory numbers all the more remarkable. Of course there are other implication such as the possibility that those being held off the market are the first home of those that moved up last summer in the bubble. A couple of months of two payments and come April 10th the second tax installment and then April 15th they find out that the two payments are not entirely deductible as AMT rears its head. Liquidity crisis.
Remember the Titanic? Well, it wasn't the iceberg above water that sank the "unsinkable" ship, it was what was beneath the water and there lies Phoenix's Achillees heel! Sixty thousand permits pulled in 2005 and almost as many in 2004 and guess what, with a 9-14 month lag on completion many of those homes are now coming on the market! Think of all those homes bought in Jan-December of this year, most are still under construction and many homes bought last December are not closing. A nurse I work with is sitting on a house she closed on in October and is paying $1500 a month on a house she can't rent or sell. Many of those homes bought in May, June, July and on during the bidding frenzy will come on the market this spring, then we'll really see a blood bath! How many of those homes are second homes or investment homes? Guess what, many of those "earnest money" deposits will be forfeit and it will be the builders left holding the bag on a market frenzy they helped create. Behold the pain many home owners will feel as those markets are significantly discounted. Add to that those who bought in the last three years and have their ARMs coming due for a rate increase! Many owners are so far in debt they will be a rise in foreclosures as well. With home prices falling up to $100,000 in most major Australian cities (their bubble ended a year ago) and Britain now feeling the "pain" of over priced homes and their economy going into recession and most people in California also poised for a precipitous fall in prices (no cash to come here and pay our inflated prices) the only places that will not suffer major losses are places that homes are still under valued (like Austin and Dallas and Houston and San Antonio to name a few). Call me "Chicken Little" but hey, I sold my property and bought in Texas where I get true value for the dollar. Anything you buy over $100 a sq foot and you have a great risk of losing a lot of dough. Just look at the flat market Texas suffered these past five years (and has been spared the pain that is coming). Of course, the whole country will suffer but some will suffer more than others. Where the greed was the greatest we'll see the greatest pain!
posted by foxwoodlief at 8:52 PM 0 comments
I sold my phoenix loft to an out-of-state investor in January 2005, and today it's still there - unlived in, not for sale, while the investor loses $3000 a month in carrying costs.
Amazing.
Think about the conversations over dinner, as wives question husbands (or visa versa!) WHY again they thought it was a good idea to buy a 2nd home in Phoenix - one they 1) can't rent out and 2) is depreciating every day
ouch.
You have a great website here, and I'm going to tell all my friends about it.
Post a Comment