December 13, 2005

Hard landing underway as housing bubble bursts


Folks, if you or someone you know is still living in la-la-land, in denial that the housing correction is fully underway, please send them this article for starters (and then a link to the blog of course). The numbers are the numbers, but the stories from the street are equally interesting. The bubble has popped, and the correction is underway - nationwide. Period. Full stop.

Sellers chop asking prices as housing market slows - Cuts of up to 20% are now common as analysts see signs of a 'hard landing'

Boston-area homeowners trying to sell their houses are sharply reducing asking prices -- in some cases, by $100,000 or more -- in response to the sudden slowdown in the real estate market.

In Cambridge, price cuts averaged $300,000 in a sampling of a dozen houses listed in the $1.25 million to $4.3 million price range. In suburbs like Tewksbury and Hopkinton, homes originally listed for around $500,000 have been slashed to the low $400,000s.

''The evidence -- both early data and the anecdotes -- are pointing more toward a hard rather than a soft landing" in the housing market, said Nicholas Perna, an economic consultant in Ridgefield, Conn. ''Prices could come down. Could it be 10 to 15 percent? There's no way of knowing, but what we're getting is more clues that you've got a decline in prices underway.

But those who need to sell quickly -- couples in the midst of a divorce, employees who are relocating to another region, or owners who are purchasing another home, for example -- may have no choice but to entertain offers they would have scoffed at months or even weeks ago.
''It's unbelievable," said Polly Drinkwater, an agent with Coldwell Banker Cambridge, who has dropped the price on one of her listings $550,000, or 22 percent, since March.

These ''are very large drops," she said.

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hogwash
Try this site, I think you want to see housing values spiral downward, why?

http://www.housingzone.com/article/CA496417.html

Anonymous said...

I started read the above link and I have to say I abruptly ended it when I heard the words "In the past..." I get a kick out the guys who try to predict what will happen with housing by looking at the past and going off of old real estate standards. We're off the map on this one, my friends. "Here there be monsters." Nothing of what we have seen in the last few years mirrors anything we have ever seen in housing, period! Try this link:
www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/schiff/2005/1118.html

Try to refute the facts presented in that article. Cast aside emotion, be open-minded, and weigh the evidence. (Maybe you should set aside a "warm-n-fuzzy" movie for a pick-me-up when your done.)

Hey, I'm a mortgage broker and I going to hate to see this thing implode and be looking for work in a year. I was hoping you could give me a glimmer of hope. Unfortunatly, no......

Anonymous said...

It looks like the link I gave above was cut off. After /2005 it ends /1118.html

blogger said...

hey, thanks #1 anonymous for the link to the site for "BUILDERS, REMODELERS, ARCHITECTS, SUPPLIERS AND MANUFACTURERS"

Guess you kinda have a vested interest in this bubble not deflating, eh?

Sorry to hear that.

Thanks for visiting.

Anonymous said...

Median Price

The price at which half the homes sold above the price and half the homes sold below the price - the midpoint price of home sales in each year. According to most experts, this is the most accurate measure of home sales price growth or decline in a given year

1968 $20,100
1969 $21,300
1970 $23,000
1971 $24,800
1972 $26,700
1973 $28,900
1974 $32,000
1975 $35,300
1976 $38,100
1977 $42,900
1978 $48,700
1979 $55,700
1980 $62,200
1981 $66,400
1982 $67,800
1983 $70,300
1984 $72,400
1985 $75,500
1986 $80,300
1987 $85,600
1988 $89,300
1989 $89,500
1990 $92,000
1991 $97,100
1992 $99,700
1993 $103,100
1994 $107,200
1995 $110,500
1996 $115,800
1997 $121,800
1998 $128,400
1999 $133,300
2000 $139,000
2001 $147,800
2002 $156,200
2003 $169,500
2004 $185,200

i am older than a lot of you, but i have been hearing about a housing bubble since 1974......when is it going to happen??????

blogger said...

past performance does NOT predict future returns.

Here's listings and median prices from RECENT data however, please read and enjoy

http://www.benengebreth.org/housingtracker/location/

we're here to help. If you're older, you should realize by now what a bubble looks like - whether it's in stocks, tulip bulbs, gold, or now housing. The underlying commodity doesn't matter - what matters is human nature bubble behavior.

The difference this time is the amount of debt and leverage possible. Even in NASDAQ days $1000 would get you $500 in margin. Now $1000 gets you $100,000 in housing margin. And that's a new development.

Get it?

If not, I can't help you. A fool and his money are soon parted.

blogger said...

sky - you hit it on the head. We've NEVER been here before

Credit was NEVER this easy to get - remember just a few years ago you had to put 20% down on a house, have verified income, and not borrow your downpayment.

Now? You can put zero down, and you can make up your income. And you don't even need to make the minimum payment.

That easy access to credit has caused the bubble.

So any stats from the past are irrelevant. What is relevant are current market conditions. And the rapid change in psyche as people realize the error of their ways.