Couldn't agree more here with Gary Kaltbaum at Fox News. Especially that the hottest will now become the coldest. It's called gravitating toward the mean...
Here's his take:
* When websites open up to help you flip condos, it is a sign of being late in the game
* When colleges start teaching you how to flip condos, it is a sign of being late in the game
* When your best buddy quits his job of twenty years to become a mortgage or real estate broker, it is a sign of being late in the game.
I am in no way saying the end of the world is coming. I am just saying that we are going to see a pretty decent dip in prices over the next couple of years...and maybe worse. My simple motto is "do not be the last one in!"
The biggest losses will come from the hottest areas. That's how it always works.
December 20, 2005
Do Not Expect a Housing Boom in 2006!
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12 comments:
History again repeats itself.
If everyone is doing it it must be right? RIGHT? Wrong. When everyone thinks there is free, easy money that is a sign that something is fundamentally wrong in the market. Do the opposite of the masses and mint money.
I'd be surprised if housing bumps around in the positive range for the next couple months before going negative. I think the real numbers are negative already and the realtor groups and their cronies are in too deep to admit it.
Open house Sunday search for a special home in Hancock Park, Los Angeles.
So I am looking for that special grand hall home for musical Sunday afternoons with friends.
Hancock Park has been listed as the 8th wealthiest neighborhood in the USA. I am in an apartment with rent control. I am waiting for the Crash and Burn.
I walk into an open house and
my question to the Realtors is ," What about the Bubble Bursting in Real Estate"
To my astonishment the Realtor said yes to the bubble burst but "not" in Hancock Park.
The home is $6,850,000. French chateau - an Architectural masterpiece built in 1927. Featured in Architectural Digest.
We established the US Condo Exchange, www.uscondex.com , to make it faster easier and cheaper to search, compare, buy and sell condos.
Last year there were 1 million condo transactions creating a market of approximately $200 bn. These numbers is expected to continue to increase over the next decade.
While there is a speculative component to the current condo market, it is important to remember that the majority of condo transactions are closed by participants seeking to sell or acquire a home. The fanatic search for a "boom" or a "bust" is akin to examining a bottle of champagne by the froth onthe glass as it is poured.
All the best,
jh
Is Real Estate a House of Cards?
Jeremy Siegel, Ph.D.
Real estate has been the hottest asset class over the past five years. Some locales have seen prices double in two or three years and news of investors flipping condos reminds me of the frenzied days of Internet IPOs in the late 1990s.
But with the latest rise in mortgage rates there's been an unmistakable shift in sentiment. Recent data from the research firm ISI shows that the dollar value of unsold homes in the U.S. has now surpassed $500 billion, up an unprecedented 33 percent from a year ago.
Sacramento's Housing Market Shows New Signs Of Weakness
Prices Falling; Buyers Canceling New Home Purchases
POSTED: 9:01 am PST December 19, 2005
SACRAMENTO, Calif. -- One of the nation's hottest housing markets is showing fresh signs of weakness as sales slow, prices fall and more buyers cancel new home purchases.
Experts don't know how much the Sacramento area market will soften, but many suspect the recent chill is more than just a seasonal lull. And the region's housing troubles appear to be worse than in most parts of California.
"At the moment it is one of the weakest in the state," said economist G.U. Krueger of Irvine consulting firm Institutional Housing Partners. "I can't see anything that's weaker."
Most experts don't expect the Sacramento market to crash. Instead, many predict a soft landing in which prices stagnate or drop slightly for a while, then rise modestly over the next two years.
But the epic housing boom that generated wealth, created jobs and propped up an otherwise lackluster economy appears to be over.
In the Sacramento resale market, sales volume dropped nearly 20 percent in October from a year ago, according to DataQuick Information Systems. The median price of a resale home in Sacramento County slipped 2 percent to $363,000 in October from $372,000 in August.
Resale prices are still about 17 percent higher than a year ago, but until recently, homeowners enjoyed year-to-year gains of 25 percent, among the country's highest appreciate rates.
Real estate agents are now seeing the largest inventory of unsold homes in a decade, with the number of "For Sale" signs doubling in the past six months. Cancellations of new-home purchases soared 260 percent in the third quarter over last year, according to Hanley Wood Market Intelligence.
Experts attribute the softening market to a variety of factors.
Mortgage rates have risen above 6 percent, while banks are tightening their lending standards, especially on the riskier types of loans that helped fuel the boom.
Bay Area residents aren't buying Sacramento properties as quickly because it's taking them longer to sell their existing homes, said analyst Greg Paquin of the Gregory Group in Folsom.
Investors who believe the market has peaked are cashing out and buying in cheaper markets in the Midwest and South.
Economists worry that the economic effects of the housing slowdown will be felt across California.
"It definitely worries me," said UCLA economist Ryan Ratcliff.
I'll take my 4.25% savings account for now... why risk it all for 2 - 3% more in 2006 (as Ed Yardini predicts 7% growth in stocks)
The sidelines feel so good right about now
devestment - I was actually researching those ibonds at treasurydirect the other day - can you enlighten us with your thought there - much appreciated
nice return but max investment is 30k...that does me no good...
As said by "Mr. Condo"
Last year there were 1 million condo transactions creating a market of approximately $200 bn. These numbers is expected to continue to increase over the next decade.
While there is a speculative component to the current condo market, it is important to remember that the majority of condo transactions are closed by participants seeking to sell or acquire a home. The fanatic search for a "boom" or a "bust" is akin to examining a bottle of champagne by the froth onthe glass as it is poured.
Reply to Dear Mr. Condo
I would suppose you have not gone through a "Condo Bust" in your career. There have many periods in the market where half finished condo projects went unsold for many years. I toured the West coast of Florida in the 80's only to see dozens of high rise condo buildings on the water empty and the builder couldn't give them away.. Ditto in Houston......It took many years for the market to return........this one will be worse!
In my lifetime I saw the Florida condo boom and burst, the Houston/Denver condo boom and burst, and now the miami/las vegas/phoenix/san diego/marin county/LA/Tampa condo boom and burst.
I do remember from those first two the amazing buying opportunities after the burst. When 20% of the condos are empty, HUD homes.
People with fistfuls of cash made out like bandits.
Let's all aim to be those people. Get your cash ready for 2008, 2009. MOABO.
You'll know when it's safe to get back in the water when condos have positive cash flow again (rent - ownership costs = profit). That basic equation is not available today. Not even close.
I rent a 2 bedroom condo for $1500 in a neighborhood where the median(per CAR) home price is $1.1M. The 2 bedroom condo across the alley from mine is on the market and vacant priced at $439K. Last summer they were priced at $479K but several have been vacant for months and prices are now dropping, even in the extreme low end. On the AVERAGE side, a house near what is actually the high end for existing homes was priced at $989K last summer and still sits, now reduced to 939k. The "median" reflects new inventory that has come on at well over $2M and sold to people who don't really need to worry about losing their shirts. CAR and NAR seems to be publishing data very selectively to mitigate evidence of actual price drops that are happening now in Southern California. I am aware of several others who, like me, cashed out in the past year, and will rent until something in California once again cash flows. The clear absence of common sense indicates a classic mania. I worked in the mortgage industry for a few years until earlier this year and saw how full of speculative loans the major CA lender's portfolio was. This is not just going to be an implosion, but the mother of all implosions. It will cost homeowners far more than the 2000 internet stock bubble collapse and it will result in a big taxpayer bailout of the reinsurance industries and GSEs that could rival the S&L bailout (it cost us more in inflation adjusted dollars than World War II, but most have forgoten about it in our Britney-centric times). There will be massive restructuring of mortgage finance. My advice is not to try to catch a falling knife but get back in if possible after the number of CA foreclosures exceeds 50,000 but before the regulatory changes take effect.
xsparta - I wish I could let you talk to a few of my friends. There isn't much on the internet about the Florida condo bust of the 1980s but the local Tampa newspaper did have a "remember when" article earlier this fall.
Too many of my friends were either too young or drank too much and have forgotten about the last bust. We all have front row seats for the current one.
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