December 23, 2005

2006: Expect some good news, expect some bad news - HousingPanic poll results (still time to vote!)

The good news: Britney will be divorcing Kevin, Bird Flu will not break out, and the mother of all hurricanes won't be hitting.

The bad news: The Fed will raise rates above 5%, the Dow and Dollar will drop, and poor, poor GM...

Thanks all for voting in the latest HP survey - I'll keep it open until year-end so you can still get on record

What is MOST likely to happen in 2006?

Answers Votes Percent

* Fed raises rates above 5% - 29 - 24%
* Dow closes 2006 below 10,000 - 9 - 8%
* Dollar falls 10%+ to major currencies - 10 - 8%
* Bush/Cheney impeached - 7 - 6%
* Major Avian Flu outbreak - 2 - 2%
* Hurricane season worse damage than '05 - 1 - 1%
* Yield curve inverts - 14 - 12%
* GM declares bankruptcy -18 - 15%
* Major quake hits California - 4 - 3%
* Britney divorces Kevin - 25 - 21%


newmy newmy said...

I was watching Jim Lehrer NewsHour on PBS this evening and saw that many expensive houses in Sacramento are built on flood plains with only dirt levees to keep the river from flooding the houses. A developer named Don Hofer (Shea Homes) was interviewed and he said lot of people need houses so he keeps building them on flood-proned areas even though engineers and polititians say it's not a wise thing to do.

At one point Cal. State Assemblywoman, Lois Wolk, remarked "It is immoral, and frankly irresponsible, to continue to build in the flood plains -- to put our houses there, to put people there, to put schools there..."

And what does boy genius Don Hofer say? "Some regulatory oversight is obviously necessary. We've had that on this project. But does it mean that the state needs to control land use? I don't think so."

Anonymous said...

Thanks guys for creating this blog. Very educational. I also believe housing will seriously burst in many places. However, I disagree with the TOTAL doom and gloom consequences for the stock market. Not all investors are located in California or Florida. Besides many many people investing in stocks are actually well off. Would not you think that many investors will want to invest more capital in stocks, away from real estate, and thus cause a stockmarket to overperform next year, knowing that housing is a such lousy investment now. Besides the economy is quite strong today. Any thoughts on that? Thanks.

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