Risk of Home Price Declines Increases

Nothing surprising here - just that Boston, almost all of California, and many major markets are seen as ripe for a crash. See where your market rates here

A number of the nation's largest housing markets remain at risk of price declines, according to the PMI U.S. Market Risk Index, issued today, and prices in many markets are overvalued.

The median Risk Index value increased 11.6 percent, from 120 to 134. Topping the Risk Index list with a greater than 50 percent chance of experiencing price declines are Boston, MA, San Diego, CA, Long Island (Nassau-Suffolk), NY, Santa Ana, CA, and Oakland, CA.

Nationwide, there exists a 21.8 percent probability of an overall house price decline, as measured within the next two years and across the 50 largest housing markets, up slightly from 21.3 percent last quarter. At the top of the valuation index, a new feature this quarter, were Los Angeles, where home prices are estimated to be overvalued by 33.7%, Sacramento, by 31.3%, and Riverside, by 30.7%