I'm just amazed by these numbers from Miami... Huge increases in inventory, and the slippery slope of declining values.. even though builders are trying to hide those numbers by offering big incentives (FREE CAR!) instead of dropping price
Trend 11/28/2005 1 month 2 month 3 month
Median Price $400,000 -2.4% -3.6% -4.8%
Inventory 18,660 +13.6% +27.3% +44.9%
Historical Data
Date Inventory 25th % 50th % 75th %
11/28/2005 18,660 $282,900 $400,000 $659,000
11/21/2005 18,261 $284,900 $405,000 $662,000
11/14/2005 17,601 $284,000 $405,000 $662,000
11/07/2005 16,952 $284,900 $405,000 $660,000
11/01/2005 16,424 $285,000 $410,000 $675,000
10/28/2005 16,425 $285,000 $410,000 $675,000
10/21/2005 16,977 $285,000 $409,900 $675,000
10/14/2005 15,894 $285,000 $409,000 $674,900
10/07/2005 15,296 $287,000 $412,000 $680,000
10/01/2005 14,953 $288,000 $415,000 $685,000
09/28/2005 14,655 $289,000 $415,000 $690,000
09/21/2005 14,251 $289,000 $417,900 $695,000
09/14/2005 13,604 $289,900 $420,000 $699,000
09/07/2005 13,064 $289,000 $423,900 $701,000
09/01/2005 12,800 $289,000 $422,900 $714,000
08/28/2005 12,882 $286,990 $420,000 $709,000
08/21/2005 12,606 $289,000 $424,900 $719,000
08/14/2005 12,361 $289,000 $425,000 $700,000
November 29, 2005
Pop! Miami housing market collapsing as inventory explodes
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5 comments:
and it seems you're a goober
never heard of "there goes the neighborhood" - it's a colloquialism you goober
but hey, welcome to the blog. Even goobers are free to post here
it's not rocket science. Ever take an econ class? What's happening is classic bubble.
I didn't make up economics, or the housing bubble, or bubble theory, or herd mentality. Smarter people than I do that for a living
What I do is point out the obvious, find articles and commentary which I feel you, the reader, will find of interest, add my 2 cents, and call it a day. All in my free time.
I'll post this article though - it's a good one. A lot older than this blog too - about six months.
But then I'd also recommend you go back and read the overwhelming supply of good articles found on this blog and others, like housingbubble2 by ben jones.
Read them together, like pages in a book, and it's a damn good story. One that due to the nature of blogging is being played out in real time, and will be here for eternity in order for folks to go back and read "what were people thinking" way after the bubble has burst, the fallout has happened, and the recovery has started
cheers
bottom line:
are you generating positive cash flow from your duplex? If so, congrats and hold on. If not, sell sell sell sell sell
And congrats on your CA play - nice gain. And you need a place to live, so if you like your house and want to stay there for 10+ years, stay
Also, my sister is in Portland. It's definitely in a bubble - especially new built condos. But nothing like phoenix, miami, san diego, vegas and la. It'll drop, but won't crash.
Inventories are steady, prices except at high end haven't dropped (yet):
Date Inventory 25th Percentile 50th Percentile
(Median) 75th Percentile
11/28/2005 4,488 $236,950 $329,900 $499,900
11/21/2005 4,674 $239,000 $329,000 $499,000
11/14/2005 4,710 $236,097 $329,000 $499,000
11/07/2005 4,800 $234,900 $325,900 $499,000
11/01/2005 4,836 $239,000 $329,900 $499,900
10/28/2005 4,848 $238,500 $329,900 $499,900
10/21/2005 4,865 $234,900 $329,900 $499,999
10/14/2005 4,848 $235,000 $327,750 $499,900
10/07/2005 4,759 $234,900 $325,000 $499,500
10/01/2005 4,769 $234,950 $327,000 $499,900
09/28/2005 4,800 $234,900 $329,000 $499,900
09/21/2005 4,750 $234,900 $329,500 $499,950
09/14/2005 4,588 $231,000 $329,000 $509,900
09/07/2005 4,395 $229,950 $329,900 $509,900
09/01/2005 4,377 $229,900 $330,000 $519,000
08/28/2005 4,373 $229,900 $329,900 $511,300
08/21/2005 4,337 $228,000 $329,000 $509,900
08/14/2005 4,241 $229,000 $329,900 $520,000
I wouldn't touch a rental property unless it gave me over 12% ROI with a fixed rate mortgage after property management fee. You don't see those anymore.
you are doing great after moving to Portland. Portland will pop a bit, especially if the tech sector takes any job hits, the real estate jobs in PDX will dry up. The home owners that are going to get waxed in Portland are the no money down, ARMs, etc. How can sell your house and not get soaked by fees? Once the Portland market tanks a bit it will tough on 30% or so of the people who bought house after 2003. To long term owners it won't matter or effect them at all. Look at the Portland rental market, lot's of homes for rent, and the condo market is already "eating" it.
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