November 29, 2005

Pop! Miami housing market collapsing as inventory explodes


I'm just amazed by these numbers from Miami... Huge increases in inventory, and the slippery slope of declining values.. even though builders are trying to hide those numbers by offering big incentives (FREE CAR!) instead of dropping price

Trend 11/28/2005 1 month 2 month 3 month
Median Price $400,000 -2.4% -3.6% -4.8%
Inventory 18,660 +13.6% +27.3% +44.9%

Historical Data
Date Inventory 25th % 50th % 75th %
11/28/2005 18,660 $282,900 $400,000 $659,000
11/21/2005 18,261 $284,900 $405,000 $662,000
11/14/2005 17,601 $284,000 $405,000 $662,000
11/07/2005 16,952 $284,900 $405,000 $660,000
11/01/2005 16,424 $285,000 $410,000 $675,000
10/28/2005 16,425 $285,000 $410,000 $675,000
10/21/2005 16,977 $285,000 $409,900 $675,000
10/14/2005 15,894 $285,000 $409,000 $674,900
10/07/2005 15,296 $287,000 $412,000 $680,000
10/01/2005 14,953 $288,000 $415,000 $685,000
09/28/2005 14,655 $289,000 $415,000 $690,000
09/21/2005 14,251 $289,000 $417,900 $695,000
09/14/2005 13,604 $289,900 $420,000 $699,000
09/07/2005 13,064 $289,000 $423,900 $701,000
09/01/2005 12,800 $289,000 $422,900 $714,000
08/28/2005 12,882 $286,990 $420,000 $709,000
08/21/2005 12,606 $289,000 $424,900 $719,000
08/14/2005 12,361 $289,000 $425,000 $700,000

11 comments:

the_banker said...

Umm......click the below:

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/features/2004/0404.wallace-wells.html

It seems our blog host is not as original as he posits himself to be. Not only does he just cut and paste articles into his "blog", but it seems his whole basis for his "blog" is also unoriginal.

keith said...

and it seems you're a goober

never heard of "there goes the neighborhood" - it's a colloquialism you goober

but hey, welcome to the blog. Even goobers are free to post here

the_banker said...

C'mon......did you read (re-read?) the article? I have been reading your blog and posts for a week now, and thought something seemed vaguely familiar....then I remembered this article from our regional magazine......what Wallace-Wells says and what you claim (paste) in your writings are from the same vein (if not the same author) and are almost verbatim in nature (except Wallace wrote it 18 months ago).....

I expected more from the "definitive source of news, opinion and user commentary for the worldwide housing bubble".........

keith said...

it's not rocket science. Ever take an econ class? What's happening is classic bubble.

I didn't make up economics, or the housing bubble, or bubble theory, or herd mentality. Smarter people than I do that for a living

What I do is point out the obvious, find articles and commentary which I feel you, the reader, will find of interest, add my 2 cents, and call it a day. All in my free time.

I'll post this article though - it's a good one. A lot older than this blog too - about six months.

But then I'd also recommend you go back and read the overwhelming supply of good articles found on this blog and others, like housingbubble2 by ben jones.

Read them together, like pages in a book, and it's a damn good story. One that due to the nature of blogging is being played out in real time, and will be here for eternity in order for folks to go back and read "what were people thinking" way after the bubble has burst, the fallout has happened, and the recovery has started

cheers

chris said...

Anyone have any predictions where Portland, Oregon will play into the housing bubble. I bought way before the bubble in 1999 in Oceanside, CA San Diego, CA a 1411 sq ft 4 bed/2 bath cookie cutter home in an HOA for 168K with 0 down and used my roomates to mostly pay the mortgage. Due to the potential housing bubble fears I sold it in 2 weeks in June 2005 for 495K. My girlfriend and I moved to Portland, OR bought a nice 2100 sq ft 1923 built remodeled bungalow home within the urban growth boundary in SE Portland 5 miles to downtown for 222K.I put 120K down and took out a 100K mortgage for 500 a month. Then bought a duplex built in 1996 which I rent out and break even after I pay the mortgage for 240K right down the street from our home. I put 25K down on the duplex. I paid off all of my debts and was able to bank 35K.
I found a job which pays as much as I was making in San Diego area.
Do you think I made a good decision? I dont plan on selling the duplex at least for 5 years. I hope to make some positive cash flow eventually.
It dosen't seem like were in a over inflated price and alot of Californians are moving here.

keith said...

bottom line:

are you generating positive cash flow from your duplex? If so, congrats and hold on. If not, sell sell sell sell sell

And congrats on your CA play - nice gain. And you need a place to live, so if you like your house and want to stay there for 10+ years, stay

Also, my sister is in Portland. It's definitely in a bubble - especially new built condos. But nothing like phoenix, miami, san diego, vegas and la. It'll drop, but won't crash.

Inventories are steady, prices except at high end haven't dropped (yet):

Date Inventory 25th Percentile 50th Percentile
(Median) 75th Percentile
11/28/2005 4,488 $236,950 $329,900 $499,900
11/21/2005 4,674 $239,000 $329,000 $499,000
11/14/2005 4,710 $236,097 $329,000 $499,000
11/07/2005 4,800 $234,900 $325,900 $499,000
11/01/2005 4,836 $239,000 $329,900 $499,900
10/28/2005 4,848 $238,500 $329,900 $499,900
10/21/2005 4,865 $234,900 $329,900 $499,999
10/14/2005 4,848 $235,000 $327,750 $499,900
10/07/2005 4,759 $234,900 $325,000 $499,500
10/01/2005 4,769 $234,950 $327,000 $499,900
09/28/2005 4,800 $234,900 $329,000 $499,900
09/21/2005 4,750 $234,900 $329,500 $499,950
09/14/2005 4,588 $231,000 $329,000 $509,900
09/07/2005 4,395 $229,950 $329,900 $509,900
09/01/2005 4,377 $229,900 $330,000 $519,000
08/28/2005 4,373 $229,900 $329,900 $511,300
08/21/2005 4,337 $228,000 $329,000 $509,900
08/14/2005 4,241 $229,000 $329,900 $520,000

Out at the peak said...

I wouldn't touch a rental property unless it gave me over 12% ROI with a fixed rate mortgage after property management fee. You don't see those anymore.

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Anonymous said...

you are doing great after moving to Portland. Portland will pop a bit, especially if the tech sector takes any job hits, the real estate jobs in PDX will dry up. The home owners that are going to get waxed in Portland are the no money down, ARMs, etc. How can sell your house and not get soaked by fees? Once the Portland market tanks a bit it will tough on 30% or so of the people who bought house after 2003. To long term owners it won't matter or effect them at all. Look at the Portland rental market, lot's of homes for rent, and the condo market is already "eating" it.