Thanks to housingpanic reader skytrekker for pointing us to this excellent article, and "meltdown" quote from Ian Shepherdson...
Homebuilder Toll Brothers' warning of a cooler market sent investors running. The end of the boom? Probably, so keep your eyes open
There's an old saying that nobody rings an alarm bell at the top of a market. But luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers (TOL ) came awfully close on Nov. 8, when it warned investors of "some softening of demand in a number of markets" and that "it appears we may be entering a period of more moderate home price increases, more typical of the past decade than the past two years."
continuing...
A "MELTDOWN"? The pessimists still are convinced a real fall is coming. Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist for High-Frequency Economics in Valhalla, N.Y., thinks prices and construction won't just go into a lull for a few years -- they'll actually fall, possibly dragging down the overall U.S. economy. He notes that a sharp downturn in a white-hot housing market contributed to the two recessions that struck in the early 1980s. This time, says Shepherdson, housing starts could fall 40% or more. "Meltdown, in other words," he wrote in a recent publication.
November 10, 2005
Meltdown? Housing: Red Alert, or a Wake-Up Call?
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3 comments:
Isn't it odd that folks think that it's UNTHINKABLE for prices to fall, even 10%, when they see it as completely normal that they rise 10%, 20%, 40% or 100% in a year or two?
I keep wondering where people get the monthly income to buy a $500,000 home in Los Angeles. Food prices, gas prices, and general living expenses constantly go up for me. ???? I can see the Hollywood sign from my apartment. 41cadillac.
they get the money in a classic ponzi scheme - by buying and selling overvalued houses from/to each other
then the music stops
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