Here they are folks - National Association of Realtors' (NAR) talking points used to calm freaked out buyers and sellers. Aren't they great? The nice thing is after it bursts, we'll have this smoking gun to shove back in their face
There is virtually no risk of a national housing price bubble, based on the fundamental demand for housing and predictable economic factors. It is possible for local bubbles to surface under the right circumstances, but that also is unlikely in the current environment. There are tight supplies of homes available for sale in most of the country, and labor markets have been improving. In other words, the two conditions necessary for price softness do not exist in most of the country.
November 19, 2005
From the belly of the beast - realtor talking points on the bubble
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
5 comments:
everyone calm down, thank you for visiting - we love to hear folks who are either 1) heavily vested in this ponzi scheme continuing, or 2) people who don't understand economics, supply and demand and 3) complete and utter dolts
so thanks for visiting - keep coming back and keep posting!
If you want to take the time, check out the price changes in the following builder companies:
I put these companies in a watch list on Yahoo. Easy to check out price changes on the charting site.
The first one, NVR , has a price range of: 52wk Range: 641.00 - 947.95 . September it was $900 per share. Friday it was $732 per share.
Also while your are there at the Yahoo Finance chart, check out the Message board on NVR. Those investors are running scared
Symbol Last Trade Chg
NVR Nov 18 732.05 +4.05
WLS Nov 18 116.00 -2.00
DHOM Nov 18 10.60 -0.01
CHCI Nov 18 15.94 -0.23
CTX Nov 18 73.78 +0.75
MTH Nov 18 63.17 +0.37
HOV Nov 18 48.36 +0.35
TOL Nov 18 34.09 -1.50
LEN Nov 18 56.90 -0.24
PHM Nov 18 40.75 -0.31
PHM Nov 18 40.75 -0.31
SPF Nov 18 37.59 -0.53
DHI Nov 18 34.81 -0.15
BZH Nov 18 69.14 +3.68
IYR Nov 18 64.79 +0.51
FRE Nov 18 62.12 +0.22
FNM Nov 18 47.74 +1.
thinking about shorting the builders again this week now that they've come up a bit again... especially NVR
Also, look to short builders exposed to the phoenix market which is imploding, like spg and ctx
here's my math
bought condo 2003 for 165,000
sold condo july 2005 for 315,000
profit: $150,000
renting "$600,000" condo for $2000 / month. cost of owning would be $4500 / mo - $5,000 / mo, plus depreciating, yes depreciating based on government data for sept and oct, 5% a month or $30,000 - PER MONTH
now, who's the idiot?
I really liked your post. You would probably enjoy the articles I have compiled at my whats the value of my home site. I invite you to check it out.
Post a Comment