tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post3395523874749718610..comments2023-12-30T10:06:37.450+00:00Comments on HousingPANIC - The Housing Bubble Blog with an Attitude Problem, 2005 - 2008: Isn't it kinda odd that Wall Street and America would be BETTER off if Ben Bernanke and the Fed would actually RAISE rates?bloggerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06585266242070350399noreply@blogger.comBlogger59125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-50387823120846888572008-07-05T16:33:00.000+01:002008-07-05T16:33:00.000+01:00Bitterrenter,Go read the post again. If you still...Bitterrenter,<BR/><BR/>Go read the post again. If you still find nothing is said there, go back and read yet again, until you understand what was said. If you can't find anything in there after 5 readings, it's time for you to sign up at the community college for reading comprehension calsses. LOL.<BR/><BR/>BR, by the way, it's another Irony (not dichotomy) that after making so many self-contradictory posts you are accusing my post of saying nothing.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-17425102490503651432008-07-02T15:33:00.000+01:002008-07-02T15:33:00.000+01:00Yeah, that said, well, NOTHING.If you have nothing...Yeah, that said, well, NOTHING.<BR/><BR/>If you have nothing to say, why the long, boring posts?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-36170243237370995842008-07-02T03:42:00.000+01:002008-07-02T03:42:00.000+01:00Bitterrenter,"Market stagnation during the summer ...Bitterrenter,<BR/><BR/>"Market stagnation during the summer is no secret. The book Riding the Bear is all about that. Then there's the old adage "Sell in May, Go Away". Of course, that tactic hasn't been the best with recent anomolous years."<BR/><BR/>In other words, you are presenting two contrary predictions at the same time . . . really useful! BTW, In case you didn't notice, I predicted a decline early in the summer, then a rally late in the summer into Labor Day. I most certainly did not recommend getting back in in the fall as in "sell in may and go away" implies. <BR/><BR/>"And timing is notoriously risky (except for the libertarians, they're always spot-on!)."<BR/><BR/>Market timing the full time job of your colleagues at the trading desks. <BR/><BR/>"Bottom line: you discovered nothing new."<BR/><BR/>I'm sure there are other people, perhaps even some at the banking institution that you work for, who hare figured out this year's time line, even if they haven't designed it to begin with. I'm just more inclined to share my hunches, without the burden of having to pretend being stupid like you do.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-21742496777584899112008-07-01T22:09:00.000+01:002008-07-01T22:09:00.000+01:00Hey Bitterrenter, don't you have to be in a Pride ...Hey Bitterrenter, don't you have to be in a Pride Parade somewhere, interrupting the traffic and life of hardworking people, while you all dance shirtless on top of trucks?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-32640908692546372532008-07-01T19:59:00.000+01:002008-07-01T19:59:00.000+01:00Reality darling,Market stagnation during the summe...Reality darling,<BR/><BR/>Market stagnation during the summer is no secret. The book Riding the Bear is all about that. Then there's the old adage "Sell in May, Go Away".<BR/><BR/>Of course, that tactic hasn't been the best with recent anomolous years. And timing is notoriously risky (except for the libertarians, they're always spot-on!).<BR/><BR/>Bottom line: you discovered nothing new.<BR/><BR/>Even a socialist like me knows that.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-79246487275116335772008-07-01T19:37:00.000+01:002008-07-01T19:37:00.000+01:00Bitterrenter,Here's the link to my post on May 21s...Bitterrenter,<BR/><BR/>Here's the link to my post on May 21st, almost six weeks ago :<BR/><BR/>https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=18675105&postID=1590145978755203147<BR/><BR/>a quick excerp:<BR/>"Still think we are range-bound for now, between 1340 and 1440 on the S&P500, with a non-insignificant chance of a drastic downside risk to 1200's . . ."<BR/><BR/>It was a follow-up to a post three days earlier suggesting the stock market is range-bound for the summer, spelling out the details. At the time, SP500 was close to 1440. Each SPX point corresponds to roughly 9-10 Dow points.<BR/><BR/>"Must be the libertarian in you that gives such powers of prescience! "<BR/><BR/>No, it's the other way around: insightful people who do not count on government coercion to make their living tend to become libertarians, as they gain insight on how the government really works.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-33940051243533440342008-07-01T16:28:00.000+01:002008-07-01T16:28:00.000+01:00Paul Volker is on Obama's advisory pannel. If Obam...Paul Volker is on Obama's advisory pannel. If Obama makes it to the Crack House, then Mr. Volker may very well replace Mr. Hellicoper. Then history would write how Volker saved the dollar twice in his lifetime.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-20730240500258205282008-07-01T16:13:00.000+01:002008-07-01T16:13:00.000+01:00Just raise the damn rates!Gentle Ben is waiting un...Just raise the damn rates!<BR/><BR/>Gentle Ben is waiting until next Spring before raising rates for a reason. But it doesnt stop the banks from raising their rates.<BR/><BR/>Housing and the stock market is going to crash regardless. No one can get approved for a house loan, and the stock market will not see new highs - only lower lows because of spiraling down economy.<BR/><BR/>Wait until Q3 2008.Miss Goldbughttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10801986805626811706noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-90904623429765152562008-07-01T15:12:00.000+01:002008-07-01T15:12:00.000+01:00MIke buddy,No, no lisp here. I "pass". Like most g...MIke buddy,<BR/><BR/>No, no lisp here. I "pass". Like most gay men do.<BR/><BR/> Just like your ideological view of the world, your concept of gay men is outdated and based on ignorance.<BR/><BR/>But I would expect nothing more from a brainstem.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-40244161158684396672008-07-01T07:07:00.000+01:002008-07-01T07:07:00.000+01:00Yes, Reality, we know how you timed this whole thi...Yes, Reality, we know how you timed this whole thing so perfectly! Amazing creature that you are!<BR/><BR/>Must be the libertarian in you that gives such powers of prescience! <BR/><BR/>I bow to your powers, Oh Mighty One!<BR/><BR/>PS. I shared your story of savvy investing with Bigfoot and Amelia Earhart when we had tea with the Queen today. They were duly impressed!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-38251303074622947082008-07-01T06:26:00.000+01:002008-07-01T06:26:00.000+01:00Bitter Renter,Why is it that I can imagine you say...Bitter Renter,<BR/><BR/>Why is it that I can imagine you saying 'brainstems' with a heavy lisp accompanied with a flicking of the wrists?<BR/><BR/>You really remind me of one of those bitchy gays who have their ears plugged so they can't hear their own incessant whining.<BR/><BR/>-MikeAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-50731767030277145102008-07-01T06:19:00.000+01:002008-07-01T06:19:00.000+01:00BTW, BR, you don't seem to understand the meaning ...BTW, BR, you don't seem to understand the meaning of the word "dichotomy." You must have seen the word in another post of mine. The word means bifuration and contrast . . . as in: the dichotomy between Democrats vs. Republicans is a false one; they all want to loot you. <BR/><BR/>The word you are looking for is "irony," as in: it's an irony that you call other people "brainstem." It's also an irony that you are telling other people to look up the meaning of the word "dichotomy" assuming they don't know.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-68748923405735070472008-07-01T06:09:00.000+01:002008-07-01T06:09:00.000+01:00Anon 3:15am,Thanks for the info from the front lin...Anon 3:15am,<BR/><BR/>Thanks for the info from the front lines. The conventional modern central banking methodology, namely, keeping interest rate artificially low, and letting time heal the losses at the too big to fail banks unfortunately is exactly what brought us:<BR/><BR/>1. the Japanese 18yr long depression, and still counting; before that:<BR/><BR/>2. the decade of 70's stagflation in the US; and before that:<BR/><BR/>3. the long "great" depression of 17 years, from 1929 to 1946.<BR/><BR/>Recessions (then called "depressions") before modern central banking tended to be rapid and short. Asset prices drop quickly enogh to a level where bargain hunters can step in and bid up the market again, then the business environment improve quickly.<BR/><BR/>Low short-term interest rate is not helping spending at all when banks are not lending out based on those low short-term rates because they are afraid of default. What's needed is a higher short term rate, and lowe long term rate, so that current homedebtors can quickly make a decision on either:<BR/><BR/>(1) refinance into favorable 30-yr full amortized mortgages at a decent rate; that will get the bank mortgage lending loan origination restarted. or<BR/><BR/>(2) abandon the house. Rent a comaparable one for much less. Then there's much much more money left over for the family every month to spend.<BR/><BR/>Yes, many banks that misbehaved will be bankrupt . . . and new banks will take up their place in the market. Yes, some savers will lose part of their deposits, but their remaining deposits at surviving banks would get higher interest return and not be robbed blind by FED-engineered inflation. Such bankruptcies will make savers care about which bank they park money with, hence instill banking discipline.<BR/><BR/>In modern central banking, instead of those natural check-and-balances from savers to banks to borrowers, with descipline every step of the way, the central bank: <BR/><BR/>(1) holds itself out as the guarantor of depositors while robbing them through monetary inflation;<BR/><BR/>(2) holds itself out as savior of homedebtors while in fact shackling them to way too large a housing payment, hence the homedebtors have no money to spend for anything else.<BR/><BR/>Big bankers are the ultimate beneficiary in this game as they no longer have to worry about market descipline . . . take all the big risks for the big bonuses, and never have to worry about the downside risks associated with any those big gambles. The process also stymie the emergence of new banks.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-29112537432771031582008-07-01T05:17:00.000+01:002008-07-01T05:17:00.000+01:00FED raising the short term rates would probably le...FED raising the short term rates would probably lead to:<BR/><BR/>(1) dollar appreciation against other currencies;<BR/><BR/>(2) halt commodity price inflation as monetary inflation gets stopped;<BR/><BR/>(3) making treasury instruments, especially long bond, rise; i.e. interest rates at the long end fall.<BR/><BR/>(4) as treasury long bond rates come down, so will rates on 30-yr mortgages.<BR/><BR/>In other words, it's the exact medicine that's required to get mortgage conversion to 30-yr fixed rolling. While the current low short-term interest rate policy is helping the banks digest the piles of junk paper issued in the past few years, it is also killing new loan origination due to high 30-yr fixed rate. Banks are not writing new HELOC's or low rate ARM's any way, so the low short-term rate is not helping loan originaation at all. When banks already anticipate higher rates in the future and worry about loan repayment at turn-over at that future date, FED's low short-term interest rate is not being passed onto borrowers. <BR/><BR/>Of course, Bernanke is far too mired in the old Philips-Curve nonsense to see this problem.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-83683009747905796962008-07-01T05:01:00.000+01:002008-07-01T05:01:00.000+01:00Bitterrenter,"Must be quite the dichotomy (look it...Bitterrenter,<BR/><BR/>"Must be quite the dichotomy (look it up, brainstems) to be hurting and not being able to blame those truly responsible for their misery."<BR/><BR/>Tell me about it, how do you feel seeing your retirement funds going down 1000+ points in a month, with the banks that you work for leading the way down? Tells us all about it, BR, is that BankRepresentative? <BR/><BR/>For what it's worth, I have been shorting the market since DJIA was over 13000 (when SPX was close to 1440), only recently closing short positions after SPX came in the vicinity of 1300 (corresponding to roughly DJIA 11500). You can verify my posts on this topic in the past month and half, posted in almost real time as the indices moved.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-49557335192386893782008-07-01T03:15:00.000+01:002008-07-01T03:15:00.000+01:00A rate increase would and it will cause and speed ...A rate increase would and it will cause and speed up the housing market collapse. I am a certified appraiser in NJ (I know, I know what you thinking) who has followed this blog for years, let me tell you how bad it is in some of the poor areas that I cover: Elizabeh City, Newark and Paterson, in these areas I have seen an unprecidented increase in the number of short sales, over 50%of the lisings in these areas are short sales or soon to be foreclosures. The increase in the mortgage rates will simply collapse markets! "The banks are in trouble -- I don't know how they bought all that garbage."<BR/>What were they thinking!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-64620051756085750982008-07-01T02:45:00.000+01:002008-07-01T02:45:00.000+01:00What happens when he raises rates and inflation ju...What happens when he raises rates and inflation just continues to build anyway? The real panicAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-53558927440034398342008-07-01T02:21:00.000+01:002008-07-01T02:21:00.000+01:00OLD VERSION:The ant works hard in the withering he...OLD VERSION:<BR/>The ant works hard in the withering heat all summer long, building his house and laying up supplies for the winter. <BR/><BR/>The grasshopper thinks the ant is a fool and laughs and dances and plays the summer away. <BR/><BR/>Come winter, the ant is warm and well fed. The grasshopper has no food or shelter, so he dies out in the cold. <BR/><BR/>MORAL OF THE STORY: Be responsible for yourself! <BR/><BR/>--------------------------------------------- <BR/><BR/>MODERN VERSION: <BR/><BR/>The ant works hard in the withering heat all summer long, building his house and laying up supplies for the winter. <BR/><BR/>The grasshopper thinks the ant is a fool and laughs and dances and plays the summer away. <BR/><BR/>Come winter, the shivering grasshopper calls a press conference and demands to know why the ant should be allowed to be warm and well fed while others are cold and starving. CBS, NBC, ABC, PBS, and CNN show up to provide pictures of the shivering grasshopper next to a video of the ant in his comfortable home with a table filled with food. America is stunned by the sharp contrast. <BR/><BR/>How can this be, that in a country of such wealth, this poor grasshopper is allowed to suffer so? <BR/><BR/>Kermit the Frog appears on Oprah with the grasshopper, and everybody cries when they sing, 'It's Not Easy Being Green'. <BR/><BR/>Jesse Jackson stages a demonstration in front of the ant's house where the news stations film the group singing, 'We Shall Overcome'. Jesse then has the group kneel down to pray to God for the grasshopper's sake. <BR/><BR/>Nancy Pelosi and John Kerry exclaim in an interview with Larry King that the ant has gotten rich off the back of the grasshopper, and both call for an immediate tax hike on the ant to make him pay his fair share. <BR/><BR/>Finally, the EEOC drafts the Economic Equity and Anti-Grasshopper Act retroactive to the beginning of the summer. The ant is fined for failing to hire a proportionate number of green bugs and, having nothing left to pay his retroactive taxes, his home is confiscated by the government. <BR/><BR/>Hillary Clinton gets her old law firm to represent the grasshopper in a defamation suit against the ant, and the case is tried before a panel of Federal judges that Bill Clinton appointed from a list of single-parent welfare recipients. <BR/><BR/>The ant loses the case. <BR/><BR/>The story ends as we see the grasshopper finishing up the last bits of the ant's food while the government house he is in, which just happens to be the ant's old house, crumbles around him because he doesn't maintain it. <BR/><BR/>The ant has disappeared in the snow. <BR/><BR/>The grasshopper is found dead in a drug-related incident and the house, now abandoned, is taken over by a gang of spiders who terrorize the once peaceful neighborhood. <BR/><BR/>MORAL OF THE STORY: Be careful how you vote in 2008.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-62350407786539812932008-07-01T01:53:00.000+01:002008-07-01T01:53:00.000+01:00Sonders in the video said "Nothing terribly unique...Sonders in the video said "Nothing terribly unique about this environment in terms of what investors aughta do." So the DOW losing +1000 points in a month and housing prices declining is a normal thing.<BR/><BR/>Oh and she said the market always anticipates a recession. The market was buying up Bear Stearns and other banks this time last summer in the beginning of a housing recession. <BR/><BR/>How typically and unwaveringly bullish from a Wall Street person. It's like reading one of those god awful investment magazines like "Money" or "Fortune." The house is burning down, but lets keep trying to build it up.Alan Statichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09196717411481032075noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-54327192380716210572008-07-01T01:16:00.000+01:002008-07-01T01:16:00.000+01:00Wall Street and America would be better off withou...Wall Street and America would be better off without the FED. <BR/><BR/>It's interesting how with inflation at least 5% a year, the government is taking an extra 5% of everyone's incomes with this hidden tax and nobody really notices. Am I missing something?Alan Statichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09196717411481032075noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-85732652614109638092008-07-01T01:09:00.000+01:002008-07-01T01:09:00.000+01:00Looks like I'm not alone in the deflation camp"[Bi...Looks like I'm not alone in the deflation camp"<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid=aIwN.hFTsofo&refer=bond" REL="nofollow">[Bill] Gross expects housing prices to fall a further 10 percent by January, by then a ``Japanese-style deflation will be in full stride.'' Home prices in 20 metropolitan areas fell the most on record in April, from a year earlier, according to an S&P/Case- Shiller home-price index released on June 24.</A>BondsOfSteelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08605141600783416939noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-40529969099769902892008-07-01T01:05:00.000+01:002008-07-01T01:05:00.000+01:00Poor brainstems. Still convinced that conservatism...Poor brainstems. Still convinced that conservatism will show them the way out of the woods. Still convinced that the poor with their "outstretched hands" are the enemy, the group making them miserable, the ones responsible for the housing pain.<BR/><BR/>Must be quite the dichotomy (look it up, brainstems) to be hurting and not being able to blame those truly responsible for their misery.<BR/><BR/>That must be why I enjoy coming here and reading brainstem after brainstem complaining about the system they helped create, that they voted for and that they support.<BR/><BR/>Thanks, brainstems for making my time spent here so enjoyable.<BR/><BR/>xoxo,<BR/><BR/>BRAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-24859986275368626652008-07-01T00:54:00.000+01:002008-07-01T00:54:00.000+01:00ACTUALLY READ THE DETAILS of the bailout planAnd d...<I>ACTUALLY READ THE DETAILS of the bailout plan</I><BR/><BR/>And don't forget the 1.5% "insurance" premium per year to the govt--that's $4500 a year from a homeowner with a 300K loan. Yikes.<BR/><BR/>And you then get to share any future capital gains with the government.<BR/><BR/>Sounds like a NEAT way to get a lower/middle class TAX INCREASE through during a recession, and get SOME idiots to think it's a GOOD thing LOL.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-91057803855510663642008-07-01T00:43:00.000+01:002008-07-01T00:43:00.000+01:00"BWA HA HA HA HA HABailout bill is signed, sealed ..."BWA HA HA HA HA HA<BR/><BR/>Bailout bill is signed, sealed delivered.<BR/><BR/>So long renters. Enjoy the shithole 1 bed 1 bath"<BR/><BR/>Your mamaAlan Statichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09196717411481032075noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-57000716957515290402008-07-01T00:35:00.000+01:002008-07-01T00:35:00.000+01:00Higher Fed rates? BRING 'EM ON. It's time I got ...Higher Fed rates? BRING 'EM ON. It's time I got back into stocks.<BR/><BR/>I used the first fed CUT as a very profitable sell signal in the stock market (just like the last time, in 2001) and strong hold signal for commodities. <BR/><BR/>Fed's always chasing.<BR/><BR/>I'll consider the first rate increase a great time to switch back.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com