tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post8264300674654460813..comments2023-12-30T10:06:37.450+00:00Comments on HousingPANIC - The Housing Bubble Blog with an Attitude Problem, 2005 - 2008: HousingPANIC Stupid Question of the Daybloggerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06585266242070350399noreply@blogger.comBlogger51125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-41756835857891191342008-05-25T07:08:00.000+01:002008-05-25T07:08:00.000+01:00I think deflation will win in the end actually. Fo...I think deflation will win in the end actually. For the short to medium term inflation will take hold, which is what I said on my blog earlier this month:<BR/><BR/>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/05/inflation-is-here-to-stay.html<BR/><BR/>But, truth be told, I think the debt deflation and deleveraging automatically spell deflation. If deleveraging gets gruesome, nothing can prevent deflation from taking hold.Edward Harrisonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06078305973678479125noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-78105089751930918852008-05-24T00:43:00.000+01:002008-05-24T00:43:00.000+01:00You know, I love reading all these "couch economis...You know, I love reading all these "couch economists" preach about how the fed "caused this" with loose lending. Boloney - you guys need to read some real economists such as Friedman and Schwartz and look at some history. This "pushing on a string" , deflation of assets, bank runs, inflation of commodites etc. has all happened before. And at the time the fed took exactly the view of the bears and nuts on this blog "Speculative excesses of the 20's must be purged" and they refused to "bailout banks and speculators". Well, what happened next was one of the single largest monetary disasters in US History! If it was not for WWII, and the industrial jobs that brought on, it would have gotten much worse. What I find interesting about all of you people is that you spout off about how YOUR taxpayer money is funding these bailouts. Well let me tell you from someone whose parents lived through the great depression (Yes I am an old guy), if you bears on here were in charge, you would not have to worry about your tax dollars because you as well as "the gamblers and speculators" you all detest, would not have a job, money or any resources to worry about. I will admit that there was excess and fraud, however what is being preached on this blog amounts to crashing a 747 with 400 passengers on it to keep 4 criminals from entering the airport terminal when the jet lands. Frankly if a few speculators are "bailed out" for the future good of the overall economy, I have no problem whatsoever with that. Not to mention in a good economy, tax rolls build and real output increases so your "tax payer bailout" will be repaid faster. The "inflation" you are griping about is a DIRECT result of the Bush Administrations policy of war in Iraq and running up a huge debt, as well as inaction to decrease and mitigate and contain the Real Estate contraction. The money will find a place, like water seeking the lowest point. Take away stocks, you will get real estate speculation. Take away Real Estate speculation, you will get commodity speculation. Folks, you will go down LONG before the speculators, so quit fighting them, and just accept that they have existed since the Great Depression and will continue to exist after the housing depression - the question is, are you willing to take down the entire country just to "punish" the speculators. I personally am not, however I presume since everyone here has their millions in coffee cans, they don't care.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-74068761260951353342008-05-23T21:37:00.000+01:002008-05-23T21:37:00.000+01:00Logically:Housing crash = defaults and fewer new l...Logically:<BR/><BR/>Housing crash<BR/> = defaults and fewer new loans = less debt<BR/>= less money (as money is created by banks when they lend)<BR/>= less inflation<BR/>= deflation<BR/><BR/>I will only believe it when I see it though...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-64116459622419847232008-05-23T19:24:00.000+01:002008-05-23T19:24:00.000+01:00It's such a myth that China, India, or Brazil have...It's such a myth that China, India, or Brazil have decoupled from the American economy.<BR/><BR/>They're all going down with us, and that includes EU.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-89478067897590923092008-05-23T16:17:00.000+01:002008-05-23T16:17:00.000+01:00Prices realtive to gold haven't increased nearly a...Prices realtive to gold haven't increased nearly as much as prices realtive to the US dollar.<BR/><BR/>What we're seeing is the prices of good rising due to the devaluation of the $... not demand. <BR/><BR/>While demand globally has increased, most developing nations economies/currencies are tied to the US. Consumption will decrease. Look at food prices world wide.<BR/><BR/>The dollar will not continue to fall because the fed cannot continue to ease, and the current easing will help the economy.<BR/><BR/>Deflation.BondsOfSteelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08605141600783416939noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-40449519450617695962008-05-23T07:05:00.000+01:002008-05-23T07:05:00.000+01:00Anon 9:49It ain't inflation til we have wage infla...Anon 9:49<BR/><BR/>It ain't inflation til we have wage inflation<BR/><BR/>----------------------------------<BR/><BR/>Wrong. We can experience cost-pull inflation. Prices for goods are pulled up by higher input costs. Much different than wage-push inflation (what you are referencing), because consumers have no way to pay the higher prices. Therefore, as prices go up, consumers must cut back. This has the obvious effect of reducing demand. Producers cut back on production in the face of lower demand. Usual Result: prices fall.<BR/><BR/>However, now enters the global economy, specifically China and India with their growing demands<BR/><BR/>End result: prices stay high due to global demand while U.S. wages are stagnant = lower standard of living for many in the US.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-21285635005207424432008-05-23T04:38:00.000+01:002008-05-23T04:38:00.000+01:00Let's see; where do I see lower prices...(deflatio...Let's see; where do I see lower prices...(deflation is lower prices caused by a "shrinking money supply"; that is the only TRUE definition)<BR/><BR/><BR/>Electronics...<BR/>Boats...<BR/>Big Trucks and SUV's,<BR/>RV's and campers...<BR/>HOUSES!!!<BR/>Toys, such as ATV's snowmobiles, dirt bikes, and pool tables.<BR/>Collectibles, like cards, coins, and stamps.<BR/><BR/>In a nutshell, everything we DO NOT NEED, is going down, while everything we do need is not just rising in price, (Yes, you can accurately call this INFLATION; by definition, it is rising prices due to "Increase in the money supply") <BR/>but accelerating in it's rise.<BR/><BR/>Fortunes will be made and lost in this upcoming turbulence. Try to be on the right side.<BR/><BR/>Look at DCR.<BR/>It is a Macro shares OIL Down equity.<BR/>Selling for 1.11 at close Thursday with some heavy buying at last 1/2 of day.<BR/>Might have some nice upward action tomorrow (FRIDAY, 5/23).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-82512524393037126362008-05-23T03:51:00.000+01:002008-05-23T03:51:00.000+01:00A House is not a HomeYou Can't Go Home againHousin...A House is not a Home<BR/>You Can't Go Home again<BR/><BR/>Housing Panic bloggers are Homophobic i.e. scared of buying homesAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-84379395379907416152008-05-23T03:13:00.000+01:002008-05-23T03:13:00.000+01:00Anon 9pm,The mafia industry is a $20 billion busin...Anon 9pm,<BR/><BR/>The mafia industry is a $20 billion business only because over $50 billion dollars are spent on the war on drugs. There is no botonological reason why opium or pot can not grow in any backyard, balcony or even living rooms under plant light. When that happens, or more likely when everyone can buy cheap legal fix from the nearest 24-hr store, the mafia business would be much much less profitable . . . just like mafia business collapsed when prohibiiton was lifted . . . and did not see revival until they were hired by the government to fight WWII and given the drug trade in return. The $50+ billion tax dollars and all the sophisticated equipment and manpower spent on breaking the legs of would-be mom-and-pop competitors is what make mafia a profitable industry.<BR/><BR/>Al Queda defeated the Soviets because of US help, especially the Stinger Missile. Today, every dollar spent in Iraq by the US government, a portion of it ends up in the hands of the "insurgents"; heck, whole platoons of the Iraqi national army and police are actually "insurgents" in disguise. That and Iranian money are where the "insurgents" get their money so they can keep fighting instead having to look for a real job to support themselves. If we leave, the Iranians may actually have to fight them to put them down at their own cost.<BR/><BR/>The whole idea of geopolitical control to ensure oil flow is lunacy. Even Ayatollah Komeini kept selling oil to Mark Rich's "Swiss" company, which resold the oil to the US; the shipping schedule wasn't even changed from prior to the "embargo," just some paper work to make the sale nominally to "Swiss." It was our Carter government that arrested Mark Rich and charged him with smuggling and trading with enenmy . . . all at the time when the US was supposed to be short on oil! Talk about lunacy! The man should be a national hero for providing oil to the US without having any American boys and girls dying for it. Yet, in the perverse logic of government, it's a crime to alleviate oil shortage in the US!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-16914872202875253772008-05-22T23:59:00.000+01:002008-05-22T23:59:00.000+01:00Inflation has won. The money that is destroyed are...Inflation has won. The money that is destroyed are paper losses that are no match for the printing press. Plus all that money from houses sold near the peak is very much in existance. The seller got paid, the realtor got paid 6%, the mortgage broker got paid, the lawyer got paid, the surveyor, appraiser, etc. They all got paid and are spending that money on stuff. But see for yourself:<BR/>http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page5.pdf<BR/>Inflation running at about 15%Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-10623772051001129142008-05-22T23:11:00.000+01:002008-05-22T23:11:00.000+01:00Poster daveo hit the nail on the head.The falacy i...Poster daveo hit the nail on the head.<BR/><BR/>The falacy in thinking with regards to the inflation/deflation argument is taking an American-centrist view of the situation. And this is a falacy that Bernanke is also guilty of.<BR/><BR/>The problem is that our economy is now part of a larger, global entity. Regardless of what one may think of India or China and their political mechanisms, the fact of the matter is that these economies are ramping up. As a more robust and increasingly wealthy middle class begins to form in those countries (along with others), there will be increased demand on various commodities such as oil. We also have to take into account the scarcity of a given commodity and as we all well know, we've pretty much discovered the majority of the oil that there is to find.<BR/><BR/>Now the Fed in their infinite wisdom has tried to pass off their "core" inflation numbers as being the more prescient for gauging overall inflation trends because they are less volatile. But in my opinion, that is extraordinarily short sighted. Ignoring a segment of the CPI due to its volatilty is nonsense. Especially when those segments constitute the most important items needed for human survival. i.e. food and fuel.<BR/><BR/>As another poster mentioned, when confronted between the spectre of deflation, the Fed will always choose inflation as the lesser of two evils.<BR/><BR/>So what is the end result? Stagflation. Pure and simple. Items such as houses, which are very illiquid and harder to move (and grossly over-valued) will come down in price. We all know that. By thinning their profit margins, companies will (as a result of competition) try to keep the prices of non-essentials lower to instill demand. But for anyone that thinks gas, energy or food prices are going down anytime soon is foolish.<BR/><BR/>So what will the Fed end up eventually doing? Exactly what they did in the early 80s. At some point, we will reach a pain point where the sheeple will start screaming at the heads of state to curb inflation. By then, we will already be in desperation mode in housing so most will consider that a lost cause anyway. <BR/><BR/>Once that pain point is reached, the Fed will raise rates and raise them rapidly. That will place the final nail into the housing coffin and normlalize it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-42825487277500316492008-05-22T23:10:00.000+01:002008-05-22T23:10:00.000+01:00Anonymous said... Lot of socialist nuts on this...Anonymous said...<BR/><BR/> Lot of socialist nuts on this board.<BR/><BR/> Of course - they have never lived under socialism - but it sounds great on paper. Socialism has NEVER worked - but that is only because they never had the "right" people in charge.<BR/><BR/><BR/> Whenever you run into one of these socialist nuts just send them this:<BR/><BR/> Everything You Love You Owe To Capitalism<BR/><BR/> They can't help it - they're educated to love the system and they have zero comprehension of the power of free markets and the competition between free individuals. They have zero comprehension of the legacy of the USA and what made it great.<BR/><BR/> May 22, 2008 8:46 PM<BR/><BR/>So you have read this rah rah book and you are an expert on capitalism? Have you ever lived under Socialism? Do you have any kind of comparison to offer besides this book? I am more or less a Libertarian and I have to tell you that I believe that the jury is still out on Capitalism.<BR/><BR/>Check back with all of us in a year. I believe the situation is going to look a wee bit different once the Ponzi collapses. You may need free soup. (Capitalism didn't invent soup). Perhaps someone will write a book in the future about how to make soup from discarded IPods and cellphones.<BR/><BR/>JaneZAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-24180709165866249212008-05-22T21:49:00.000+01:002008-05-22T21:49:00.000+01:00It ain't inflation til we have wage inflationIt ain't inflation til we have wage inflationAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-88701666975228440852008-05-22T21:39:00.000+01:002008-05-22T21:39:00.000+01:00The caves are where they have their advantage and ...<I>The caves are where they have their advantage and where they defeated the Soviet Army which had the most advanced tanks, jets, and missiles in the world. Yes, a bunch of backwards Arabs living in caves destroyed a world superpower before and they can do it again</I><BR/><BR/>Actually, the Soviet Union collapsed when their socialist economy collapsed. They couldn't afford to fight in Afghanistan any more. They learned that a war on "terror" or fighting guerilla warfare is impossible to win with a standing army. The Romans learned the same thing in Spain. <BR/><BR/>So there's a little bit more to it than "A-rabs in caves defeated the Soviets". Another thing you fail to mention is the support those A-rabs in caves received from the good old USA.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-18591686626395786952008-05-22T21:04:00.000+01:002008-05-22T21:04:00.000+01:00It's all about supply-demandThe supply of money is...It's all about supply-demand<BR/><BR/>The supply of money is up while the demand for US$ is down<BR/><BR/>The supply of natural resources is down while the demand is surging due to growth in Asia and South America<BR/><BR/>The supply of cheap junk from China is up while the demand from broke American consumers is downAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-70112723486523534092008-05-22T21:00:00.000+01:002008-05-22T21:00:00.000+01:00These people are convinced that a lunatic with a c...<I><BR/>These people are convinced that a lunatic with a cell phone and laptop computer orchestrated the 9/11 attacks from a cave in Afghanistan,</I><BR/><BR/>The $20 billion a year Mafia business is conducted in back alleys, smokey bars, and basements by a bunch of highschool dropouts who are filthy rich and powerful. You don't have to be in a boardroom with sophisticated electronics to commit a conspiracy. In fact, most conspirators hide where it is hard to find them. Would it make sense for Osama to be working out of the Trump Towers in NYC? The caves are where they have their advantage and where they defeated the Soviet Army which had the most advanced tanks, jets, and missiles in the world. Yes, a bunch of backwards Arabs living in caves destroyed a world superpower before and they can do it again. You arrogant liberal pussies in your ivory towers think that you are invincible because of your IKEA furniture, iPods, and Mac notebooks.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-42786326464314654772008-05-22T20:46:00.000+01:002008-05-22T20:46:00.000+01:00Lot of socialist nuts on this board.Of course - th...<I>Lot of socialist nuts on this board.<BR/><BR/>Of course - they have never lived under socialism - but it sounds great on paper. Socialism has NEVER worked - but that is only because they never had the "right" people in charge.</I><BR/><BR/><BR/>Whenever you run into one of these socialist nuts just send them this:<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://mises.org/story/2982" REL="nofollow">Everything You Love You Owe To Capitalism</A><BR/><BR/>They can't help it - they're educated to love the system and they have zero comprehension of the power of free markets and the competition between free individuals. They have zero comprehension of the legacy of the USA and what made it great.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-28704138868426723412008-05-22T19:07:00.000+01:002008-05-22T19:07:00.000+01:00i'll keep it simple:inflation = money supplyinflat...i'll keep it simple:<BR/><BR/>inflation = money supply<BR/>inflation <> commodity pricesAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-21482698614215285672008-05-22T18:50:00.000+01:002008-05-22T18:50:00.000+01:00Deflation makes more sense here than anything else...<I>Deflation makes more sense here than anything else. Producers are now caught with higher prices on some cases, but cannot pass it to the consumer, as the consumer is tapped out. No more money, no mula, no cash.<BR/><BR/>How can prices increase?? Everyone is broke dude.<BR/><BR/>Dny</I><BR/><BR/>Because of the global economy and the fact that most goods are not produced in the US, it doesn't matter even if everyone in the US is broke. As long as others in the world have the money, prices can go up for such goods. This is a sad consequence of the global economy that we allowed to take part of in the US.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-18925888124350010782008-05-22T18:37:00.000+01:002008-05-22T18:37:00.000+01:00Bingo Keith.High rates, coming to a new administra...Bingo Keith.<BR/><BR/>High rates, coming to a new administration near you.Devestmenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13704339847524381868noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-10729972470003679222008-05-22T18:11:00.000+01:002008-05-22T18:11:00.000+01:00Lot of socialist nuts on this board.Of course - th...Lot of socialist nuts on this board.<BR/><BR/>Of course - they have never lived under socialism - but it sounds great on paper. Socialism has NEVER worked - but that is only because they never had the "right" people in charge.<BR/><BR/>Don't count out America. As long as economic opportunity and personal liberty exists, America will bounce back. <BR/><BR/>Go ahead and bet on the Chinese or Arabs.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-1970557497779485322008-05-22T18:03:00.000+01:002008-05-22T18:03:00.000+01:00The bums will always lose. And the Fed will always...The bums will always lose. And the Fed will always choose inflation as the lesser of evils. There will be no raising until bank balance sheets are adequately reliquified, i.e., no time soon. If the Fed cared one bit about the dollar, it would not have lost 97% of its value since the Fed's inception in 1913.<BR/><BR/>-SkidAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-64681269141292175952008-05-22T17:47:00.000+01:002008-05-22T17:47:00.000+01:00Analogy Time:Beaten fighter on back on canvas:(Los...Analogy Time:<BR/><BR/>Beaten fighter on back on canvas:<BR/>(Loser)<BR/><BR/>America (USA)<BR/>Bushco-Cheneyburton (WORST EVER)<BR/>Hitlery/Grandpa Munster McCain<BR/>REIC (esp. 6% ers, you are done)<BR/>Joe & Jan 6 Pack (YOU, F*ck You)<BR/>US Dollar<BR/><BR/>Muhammad Ali (The Greatest, EVER)<BR/>(Winner)<BR/><BR/>Obama<BR/>Arab World<BR/>China<BR/>Mexico and Mexicans<BR/>Mozilo, et al (Wall Street)<BR/>Suzanne<BR/>Any other currency than US Dollars<BR/><BR/>Game Over. America is DEAD<BR/><BR/>America = Turd World Ghetto<BR/><BR/>$ 10/gal Gas on the way. Thank your incumbents, esp. Pelosi, Feinstein and Boxer. What a crew.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-67973871294564435022008-05-22T17:07:00.000+01:002008-05-22T17:07:00.000+01:00The Fed can't raise rates anytime soon. The count...The Fed can't raise rates anytime soon. The country has too much debt. Raising rates will be the nail in the U.S.'s coffin. <BR/><BR/>Instead, the Fed will continue to "loan" out billions to the insolvent banks and put out make believe inflation numbers to justify its actions. Eventually, the Fed will get desperate and begin the money drops. The government will continue to spend money it doesn't have.<BR/><BR/>I see continuous decline in homes and equities (where the average <BR/>J6P stores his wealth) and increasing costs in necessities and continuous destruction of the dollar.<BR/><BR/>In other words, we're screwed.<BR/><BR/>Time to buy more gold.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-87252946801844007302008-05-22T17:01:00.000+01:002008-05-22T17:01:00.000+01:00Poor George...the entire country of Zaire chanting...Poor George...the entire country of Zaire chanting for your death. <BR/>Brother George won in the long run!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com