tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post6740736584501350206..comments2023-12-30T10:06:37.450+00:00Comments on HousingPANIC - The Housing Bubble Blog with an Attitude Problem, 2005 - 2008: FLASH: Foreclosures soar 800% in California vs. last yearbloggerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06585266242070350399noreply@blogger.comBlogger69125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-85838850480185000662007-04-25T01:38:00.000+01:002007-04-25T01:38:00.000+01:00" Frank said... Here's what's happening in Cali..." Frank said...<BR/><BR/> Here's what's happening in California ... "<BR/><BR/>Friken douchebag JUST moved to CA and now he is an expert on the local RE market and culture. Give me a fucking break Frank the "I wrote a #1 Best-Seller, so I am better than you'' douche bag. You pompous ass, you picked the perfect spot to hang your tootsies. Fitting right in with the rest of the arogant pricks in Newport! HAHHAHAHAHAAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-13000437434162382912007-04-22T02:49:00.000+01:002007-04-22T02:49:00.000+01:00Not all NOD go into foreclosures. However, if you...Not all NOD go into foreclosures. <BR/><BR/>However, if you have a NOD, it's a given that you're on thin ice, financially speaking.<BR/><BR/>NOD for March were 30,000. So yearly that's 360,000 homes on thin ice. There are about 6M homes in CA. <BR/><BR/>The GOOD news is that rates are about 40% NOD into foreclosure. So only 40% of the 360K or about 200,000 homes will be lost this year. Only 3.3%!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-25878969395314985712007-04-22T02:46:00.000+01:002007-04-22T02:46:00.000+01:00Sure, 7% a year. Do people's incomes go up 7% a y...Sure, 7% a year. Do people's incomes go up 7% a year? Then why would home values? <BR/><BR/>No "foreclosure" investors are buying homes to rent out. They'd be earning 3% on their money doing that. Oh, wait, houses go up 7% a year too, I forgot. <BR/><BR/>Why are inventories up at all given that house prices are such bargains and there are so many people with so much money? Why did prices go down in the early 1990s (50% adjusted for inflation)? Weren't the same issues in place then? Lots of people with lots of money, lots of OC mortgages paid off. <BR/><BR/>If anything OC mortgages paid off will be great...people can sell and spend 1/3 as much on a bigger house in a cleaner, nicer area of the country. Oh, I forgot, OC is IT, and no one wants to live anywhere else.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-87920993894764846612007-04-22T00:49:00.000+01:002007-04-22T00:49:00.000+01:00Maricopa County saw around a 1000% increase in for...Maricopa County saw around a 1000% increase in foreclosures from March 2006 to March 2007. <BR/><BR/>Keith, why didn't you report that?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-65608535379483162892007-04-21T21:05:00.000+01:002007-04-21T21:05:00.000+01:00Real estate is the backbone for everything. You bu...Real estate is the backbone for everything. You buy a bred it is inside the real-estate, you buy gas on some ones property, you sign your home loan inside the building own by someone. Everything is about the real estate and it will never crash. Laws of supply and demand are limited in real estate. There are ups and downs and people with money just wait to get in and I'm not talking about guys who thing they will buy a $400000 home in Newport. There are groups and individuals showing up with many millions in cash at foreclosures and just wait how they will suck the rent money from dreamers who dream of real-estate bargains. Look at the dollar value - going down and down. Pretty soon you will be sending your rent check to Sudan or Saudi Arabia or.... , but keep dreaming - bargains are jus around the corner. <BR/>Look at the amount of foreclosures in OC – look at the loans in OC – 30% of OC homes carry no mortgage. Most of the foreclosures you see in Riverside, San Bernardino, etc.. Why? I would say because of dreamers on the other side thought they will score big in getting in real-estate – ooooppppsss – did not happen and I do not think it will happen for dreamers on either side. If you balance out the dollar, economy, inflation etc….. you will see that the housing market ups and downs are +/- 20% and in the long run going up +/- 7% a year.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-56263729510162427822007-04-21T19:25:00.000+01:002007-04-21T19:25:00.000+01:00Lets put this in proper context. Many have seen th...Lets put this in proper context. Many have seen this chart from Credit Suisse showing the schedule of ARM resets. Look at where Caloifornia foreclosures are today. Now look at the chart. We are in month three or the third bar of this chart. Now look at the size of the bars moving forward. <BR/><BR/>http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/wp-cont...<BR/><BR/>We could see foreclosures in CA double or triple or quadruple the record number of foreclosures hit in 1996. That is not hyperbole.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-43955362010548447942007-04-21T16:29:00.000+01:002007-04-21T16:29:00.000+01:0011,000 foreclosures per quarter x 4 persons per ho...11,000 foreclosures per quarter x 4 persons per house = 44,000 people out of home per quarter x 4 quarters per year = 176,000 people out per year x 4 years = over 900,000 people directly affected in California<BR/><BR/>That's only if things don't get worse. If it's already this bad and the housing trolls claim Cali prices are still rising and the economy is strong, what will happen when prices drop and people owe more than the home is worth and unemployment goes back to the normal 5% range??Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-19245815067171737252007-04-21T15:17:00.000+01:002007-04-21T15:17:00.000+01:00Well put anon 8:05! Especially the; Duhhhhuuhhhhuu...Well put anon 8:05! Especially the; <BR/><BR/>DuhhhhuuhhhhuuhhHHHHHH!!!!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-16664553579011828232007-04-21T09:05:00.000+01:002007-04-21T09:05:00.000+01:00"Lars said... " (See his posting: April 20, 2007 1..."Lars said... " <BR/><BR/>(See his posting: April 20, 2007 11:14 PM)<BR/><BR/>Now this guy got it completely right. Money, will always seek refuge and return, moving about dynamically in the quest. <BR/><BR/>In the case of R.E., all the smart money is now **OUT** of the game with their cash returns burning a hole in their pocket. <BR/><BR/>Leaving the STUPID people holding the option-arm bag, listening to a giant loud sucking-sound and the clang of foreclosure, as the open marketplace efficiently hands their money over, irretrievably, to the SMART people!<BR/><BR/>The SMART money takes the STUPID money THEY NOW OWN and seek (attempt) some decent investment return, cuz there's none in R.E.<BR/><BR/>So, where do they go??<BR/><BR/>T h e S t o c k M a r k e t!! <BR/><BR/>DuhhhhuuhhhhuuhhHHHHHH!!!!!<BR/><BR/>It's a yet another sign of real monetary turmoil right there in clear view before your eyes.<BR/><BR/>The printing presses have been running max-tilt for over six years now after the Dot.com bust.<BR/><BR/>Where do you THINK all this much money has to go now, anyway? now that R.E. is NFG!?.<BR/><BR/>The stock market will, in itself, become another asset bubble for 'awhile', until the SMART money suddenly goes real short, leaving the STUPID masses holding their ass-es. (read: panic sell-off, which is GOOD for those with SMART timing, BAD for the STUPID!)<BR/><BR/>J u s t L i k e R. E. W a s!<BR/><BR/>This next asset crash, will in-fact become THE most efficient transfer of STUPID money to SMART people the world has ever known, in an inescapable logical next step in the unwinding sequence of events.<BR/><BR/>So, for those of you that ARE so amazingly STUPID to be quoting a fast rising stock market, in this fiscal environment, as some sort of economic health indicator, you are so lacking in basic knowledge of economics that your really should be keeping your mouth shut.<BR/><BR/>Unless you really LIKE proving what a jackass you are. You have no idea the hell you're talking about, not even the bare basics of it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-12394965849509298082007-04-21T06:40:00.000+01:002007-04-21T06:40:00.000+01:00Oooooh, like I'm sooooo surprised. If you're shoc...Oooooh, like I'm sooooo surprised. If you're shocked or surprised then, seriously, under what rock have you been living?<BR/><BR/>Boston is no differnt from any other market and will experience the same effects, peckers.<BR/><BR/>D.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-67317147078389453692007-04-21T05:44:00.000+01:002007-04-21T05:44:00.000+01:0011,000 foreclosures in a state of 30,000,000 peopl...11,000 foreclosures in a state of 30,000,000 people is the same thing. It could double next month and still less than 1/10 of 1% of the population would be affected. <BR/><BR/>No, does not work that way you twit. Households with mortgages are made up of 4 or more persons. Also these people are linked to many others--financially and their neighbors are up to their eyeballs as well. Its a major problem. Do you work for NAR or are you just an idiot?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-18805639571503290612007-04-21T05:41:00.000+01:002007-04-21T05:41:00.000+01:00I love it! Some people are posting are still post...I love it! Some people are posting are still posting as if there is nothing wrong! Some annon posting saying that an 800% increase in FC's not an issue in a state of 30million--ha, ha, has how stupid can you be!!! Posters like this make it clear why we are where we are!! An 8 fold increase in foreclosures is a dynanmic indicator of things to come you twit. The forelcosures do not increase in a vacuum and have serious spreading effects. God why are some people a.) so stupid and b.) can they really be that stupid and know how to use a computer and talk abotu grains of sand. I tell you, you have a grain of sand for a brain......800% increase is A BAD THING. O.K.? Get it-its bad when foreclosures increase eight fold!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-22741695635421249822007-04-21T05:35:00.000+01:002007-04-21T05:35:00.000+01:00Another trend started in California.Another trend started in California.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-37352135821206938312007-04-21T05:14:00.000+01:002007-04-21T05:14:00.000+01:00One foreclosure in California, is like 3 foreclosu...One foreclosure in California, is like 3 foreclosures almost everywhere else in the country.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-21378594438299062722007-04-21T04:24:00.000+01:002007-04-21T04:24:00.000+01:00All exciting reasons for why the market is peaking...All exciting reasons for why the market is peaking, but it's a well-known phenomenom that happens around this time of year.<BR/><BR/>Tax day was April 17th, and people who are going to save on taxes by contributing to their SEP IRA, etc, have until tax day to do it (unless they apply for an extension). If you're paying taxes, you'll wait until the last day to pay, and typically alot of people who contribute to their plans will wait until tax day. My CPA says it's a mad rush at the brokerage houses, as people send payments in, and it'll take a few days for the contributions to make it into the market as mutual funds, etc. <BR/><BR/>It's so well-known, it's called the April 20th effect. It's basically foolish money rushing in to pump up the market.<BR/><BR/>HOWEVER, it's good news for bears, who need to buy short / put stocks on an upswing.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-4062487236794226192007-04-21T03:58:00.000+01:002007-04-21T03:58:00.000+01:00I don't know why we bother to refute the trolls, b...I don't know why we bother to refute the trolls, but here's a post from today's The Big Picture (Barry Ritholtz). Yeah, we're really cookin' now:<BR/><BR/>Back in Black<BR/>in Investing | Markets<BR/><BR/>Eddy Elfenbein points out that the SPX is now positive for the millenium, since its close at 1471.48 on April 17, 2007.<BR/><BR/>That's 0.15% higher than the December 31, 1999 close of 1469.25, for a 7-1/4 year gain of 0.15%. (The bad news is that inflation has increased by 22%; dividends have added about 12.5%)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-68084076024355172892007-04-21T03:56:00.000+01:002007-04-21T03:56:00.000+01:00It's not just southern Cal. San Mateo, Marin, Sal...It's not just southern Cal. San Mateo, Marin, Salinas, and Santa Clara Counties are all very over valued and have debit to income ratios far worse than those in L.A.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-16457674014740690522007-04-21T03:26:00.000+01:002007-04-21T03:26:00.000+01:00It's no big deal. There's nothing to see. Now move...It's no big deal. There's nothing to see. Now move along.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-27990540492596771492007-04-21T01:56:00.000+01:002007-04-21T01:56:00.000+01:00"even if the prices go down it will not effect the..."even if the prices go down it will not effect the country"<BR/><BR/>We'd take your financial advice more seriously if you knew the difference between <I>a</I>ffect and <I>e</I>ffect. Trolls: like shooting fish in a barrel.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-43950243467109912232007-04-21T01:41:00.000+01:002007-04-21T01:41:00.000+01:00"Since the start of the year the dollar's gone fro..."Since the start of the year the dollar's gone from .77 to .74 against the Euro, a 3.8% decline in the dollar<BR/>The DOW is up 4.0% YTD.<BR/>NASDAQ is up 4.6%<BR/>S&P is up 4.66%<BR/><BR/>Overall you're still ahead in US equities."<BR/><BR/>Right, now take out taxes, commissions & fees, on your gain and you're losing money hand over fist.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-8566235843006793672007-04-21T01:39:00.000+01:002007-04-21T01:39:00.000+01:00800............that's all?800............that's all?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-26092989319738479442007-04-21T01:27:00.000+01:002007-04-21T01:27:00.000+01:00to frank (renting in Newport), if rates are still...to frank (renting in Newport), if rates are still low when you plan to buy, why would you pay cash? You can make a lot more money in other investments...the yield on a home comes nowhere near. I manage a hedge fund for a billionaire in Orange County, and he doesn't own his home outright...for just this reason.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-43053636131916182242007-04-21T01:07:00.000+01:002007-04-21T01:07:00.000+01:00The Dow is up because the tax burdened people have...The Dow is up because the tax burdened people have funded this legalized gambling in the form of an IRA. <BR/><BR/> Watch next couple of weeks as the profits are taken!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-25828177476679943992007-04-21T00:58:00.000+01:002007-04-21T00:58:00.000+01:00I think there were 30K NOD in March for CA. The 1...I think there were 30K NOD in March for CA. <BR/><BR/>The 11K figure is houses lost to foreclosure for the QUARTER. The record is 15-16K in 1996. So it has increased alot and is almost at the peak.<BR/><BR/>What % of houses go from NOD to foreclosure? I thought I heard it has been high recently, up to 40%. If 40% of 30K March houses end up in foreclosure, that would be 12K, or 36K per quarter. That would be more than double the record.<BR/><BR/>How many houses in CA? 30 M people. I would guess 6M houses or so. Maybe 10% sell every year so 600,000 houses. So if 36K houses in a quarter go to the bank..over 140K per year...that's significant. <BR/><BR/>It's early yet. Would have though you'd see price declines in S. Ca but so far only SD.<BR/><BR/>AS for the dow, yes it's in dollars, but a falling currency isn't usually good for the economy of a country. Inflation, higher interest rates, etc. <BR/><BR/>Alas, I don't know why it goes up. "earnings", but it's nonsense. AS soon as china goes into a slowdown and it's parabolic market prices fall...that's the end. Deep recession, but when? <BR/><BR/>What can an honest man do when all around him are compulsive gamblers?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-20248792437527592742007-04-21T00:57:00.000+01:002007-04-21T00:57:00.000+01:00Actually, accounting for the devaluation of the do...Actually, accounting for the devaluation of the dollar, we're closing in on DOW 8,500.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com