tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post6609741354324463257..comments2023-12-30T10:06:37.450+00:00Comments on HousingPANIC - The Housing Bubble Blog with an Attitude Problem, 2005 - 2008: Arizona Republic allows realtor to pen an article. Her advice to renters? "It's a great time to buy because home prices are coming down"bloggerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06585266242070350399noreply@blogger.comBlogger67125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-49814872036079948502007-07-14T00:59:00.000+01:002007-07-14T00:59:00.000+01:00FSBO Louisville said... Well, of course realtors l...FSBO Louisville said... <BR/>Well, of course realtors like to get their commission. On the flip side though, wouldn't you rather buy a house now and save money instead of later when prices go up again? <BR/><BR/>July 13, 2007 7:55 PM <BR/><BR/>----------------------<BR/><BR/>No, I'd rather buy a house later when prices have come down by 50% or so.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-57734642891525339082007-07-13T20:55:00.000+01:002007-07-13T20:55:00.000+01:00Well, of course realtors like to get their commiss...Well, of course realtors like to get their commission. On the flip side though, wouldn't you rather buy a house now and save money instead of later when prices go up again?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-40444930648041385122007-07-06T19:35:00.000+01:002007-07-06T19:35:00.000+01:00That's the "self-perpetuating downward spiral" pha...That's the "self-perpetuating downward spiral" phase. And what happens when there is no more water and no more cheap electricity to run all those air conditioners? How much will that McMansion in Phoenix be "worth" then? <BR/><BR/>July 06, 2007 3:14 AM <BR/><BR/><BR/>Tucson electric power has indicated that they will be increasing elctricity costs 20% in the next year or so.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-30028315952404959112007-07-06T19:33:00.000+01:002007-07-06T19:33:00.000+01:00Oh, forgot to mention that several friends of mine...Oh, forgot to mention that several friends of mine are also teachers and have been commenting that several students have indicated that they will be moving soon back to Mexico as their parents are illegal aliens and CANNOT find work. My brother also works commerical construction and has said that the owners have shit canned all of the illegals due to the new immigration laws in AZ.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-59531495409603553442007-07-06T19:29:00.000+01:002007-07-06T19:29:00.000+01:00keith said... Arizona and population growth:Past p...keith said... <BR/>Arizona and population growth:<BR/><BR/>Past performance does not guarantee future returns<BR/><BR/>Say it with me<BR/><BR/>Past performance does not guarantee future returns<BR/><BR/>People moved to places like Nevada and Arizona why? Because of jobs. What accounts for the job growth? Housing! Now what happens when housing goes poof? Jobs go poof. What happens when there are no jobs? Population loss.<BR/><BR/>The great population gainers will see a serious boomerang effect now that housing has collapsed. Even the uncounted illegals may go home<BR/><BR/>Just watch. And you'll be amazed. "Where did all the people go" they'll say in Phoenix. "Where did all the people go" <BR/><BR/>July 05, 2007 10:18 PM <BR/><BR/><BR/>This I have been seeing. Walmarts are no longer crawling with ten million screaming kids and their illegal families. Home Depot and Lowes are also DEAD, even on weekends! I don't see RE going up in AZ like some fo my friends around me are saying. In fact a lot of neigborhoods, newly developed, have either gone down the shit tubes due to no buyers, no renters, or only a few spec houses exist and the rest of the area is not developed.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-61491570893079644222007-07-06T06:22:00.000+01:002007-07-06T06:22:00.000+01:00"Rent for $2000 and get $0 deduction. Buy for $200..."Rent for $2000 and get $0 deduction. Buy for $2000 of which $1500 is interest and get 30% $450 in tax savings. Yea, a great deal indeed."<BR/><BR/>Actually this claim is not totally accurate. Most of the interest is paid at the beginning of the loan. As you progress into the loan, that deduction amount reduces substantially.<BR/><BR/>Also, you can save much more money by renting and then use the savings to lower your AGI by investing in investments such as monies or by maxing retirement accounts like 401(k), SEP IRA, etc. Please remember that most home buyers can't give 20% down, so they end up paying expensive PMI, which is not tax deductible. Condo assessments, HOAs, and expensive home insurance neither.<BR/><BR/>So, next time a realtwhore or FB tells you that the tax deduction is a huge incentive to buy a home, you know it's a lie.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-50709823023645351052007-07-06T05:46:00.000+01:002007-07-06T05:46:00.000+01:00Hey Keith, this is another gem for you to post abo...Hey Keith, this is another gem for you to post about two realthores back stabbing each other on deals and posting fake sex ads on Craiglist to get even. It's getting ugly out there!<BR/><BR/>http://tinyurl.com/2rcp8wAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-24213458083237273672007-07-06T04:35:00.000+01:002007-07-06T04:35:00.000+01:00Best Buy clerk: Now is a great time to buy a flat-...Best Buy clerk: Now is a great time to buy a flat-screen TV.<BR/><BR/>Car Dealer: Now is a great time to buy a car.<BR/><BR/>Doctor: Now is a great time for surgery and/or prescription drugs.<BR/><BR/>RealtWhore: Now is a great time to buy (or sell) a home.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-60829696797828474072007-07-06T04:18:00.000+01:002007-07-06T04:18:00.000+01:00Anonymous pussy said:STFU. If you don't like it mo...Anonymous pussy said:<BR/><BR/>STFU. If you don't like it move. Simple really.<BR/>----------------------------------<BR/>Nice.., real nice. Spoken, (written) like a genuine useless, phony underachieving piece of Arizona shit found crawling in places like Scottsdale.<BR/>How do you wipe the shitty sweat out of your dirty crack in this heat wave or do you lick it off?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-31823535357198748242007-07-06T04:14:00.000+01:002007-07-06T04:14:00.000+01:00"People moved to places like Nevada and Arizona wh..."People moved to places like Nevada and Arizona why? Because of jobs. What accounts for the job growth? Housing! Now what happens when housing goes poof? Jobs go poof. What happens when there are no jobs? Population loss."<BR/><BR/>----------------------<BR/><BR/>That's the "self-perpetuating downward spiral" phase. And what happens when there is no more water and no more cheap electricity to run all those air conditioners? How much will that McMansion in Phoenix be "worth" then?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-17988373583451303142007-07-06T04:12:00.000+01:002007-07-06T04:12:00.000+01:00Anon said:"Forecast:1. FACT: Iran is dependent on ...Anon said:<BR/>"Forecast:<BR/>1. FACT: Iran is dependent on external international oil development or they will not have enough production to export by 2014. 10 years from now Iran and US will be friends. Oil prices will drop"<BR/>----------------------------------<BR/><BR/>Iran's "external international oil development" is coming from China which is also helping arm Iran with state of the art air defense systems. Iran and the U.S. will not be friends unless we succeed in a regime change, "cancel" the contracts with China, and post a large military presence. Furthermore, oil prices will not drop unless there's a major depression which destroys demand. <BR/><BR/>And as far as real estate's appreciation, as Robert Shiller pointed out, from 1890 to 1990 appreciation on residential real estate was essentially zero after adjustment for inflation. A home is not an investment. You want to make money, buy income property. The massive run up in prices will correct to the mean because it represented excess credit/artificial demand, not real value.RJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07307437595686083352noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-37679625303633740372007-07-06T04:09:00.000+01:002007-07-06T04:09:00.000+01:00"3. "Over Time" real estate does appreciate. Espec..."3. "Over Time" real estate does appreciate. Especially when leverage is taken into consideration. Buy smart, plan well and you can see phenominal returns on your leveraged investment."<BR/><BR/>--------------------<BR/><BR/>Actually, "over time," real estate returns are just about ZERO in real terms. Sure, home prices have gone up a lot faster than inflation over the last few years. What goes up must come down.<BR/><BR/>Buy smart? Oh, you must mean wait a few years, at least, for prices to reach fundamental value, or even overcorrect to the downside. I agree with that.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-21770374355631157142007-07-06T04:05:00.000+01:002007-07-06T04:05:00.000+01:00"2. FACT: Baby Boomer housing demands (2nds) and n..."2. FACT: Baby Boomer housing demands (2nds) and next generation home buyers and illegal immigrants will create housing demand that outpaces current housing inventory over next 10 years."<BR/><BR/>----------------------<BR/><BR/>Sure, Paco the leaf blower operator will be buying that $800K McMansion on his $8/hour wage! (But hey, it's under the table!)<BR/><BR/>And how are a bunch of ageing Boomers, who are rapidly approaching retirement but haven't saved nearly enough, going to be paying for second homes? By taking second jobs at WalMart perhaps?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-40194049739081040042007-07-06T04:00:00.000+01:002007-07-06T04:00:00.000+01:00"1. FACT: Iran is dependent on external internatio..."1. FACT: Iran is dependent on external international oil development or they will not have enough production to export by 2014. 10 years from now Iran and US will be friends. Oil prices will drop"<BR/><BR/>-------------------------<BR/><BR/>ROFL!! I suppose 2.5 billion Chinese and Indians will just go back to riding bicycles and donkeys. Ever heard of a global economy?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-36539356532001173332007-07-06T03:56:00.000+01:002007-07-06T03:56:00.000+01:00It's 115 degrees in Phoenix today. Why would ANYON...It's 115 degrees in Phoenix today. Why would ANYONE want to live there???Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-51409154753493254062007-07-06T03:55:00.000+01:002007-07-06T03:55:00.000+01:00"Rent for $2000 and get $0 deduction. Buy for $200..."Rent for $2000 and get $0 deduction. Buy for $2000 of which $1500 is interest and get 30% $450 in tax savings. Yea, a great deal indeed."<BR/><BR/>--------------------------<BR/><BR/>Except that it's more like buy for $4000, and that's without factoring in depreciation (dropping home prices).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-82372036772332955532007-07-06T03:10:00.000+01:002007-07-06T03:10:00.000+01:00No jobs in the Midwest? That's news to me. I'm cur...No jobs in the Midwest? That's news to me. I'm currently working and have had two job offers the past month without even looking. I only make $60K a year, but it's higher than the California median and the cost of living is 50%. Is it really worth it living among millions of illegal immigrants and eating Ramen noodles just to say that you live in the land of fruits and nuts?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-64019235524249734482007-07-06T01:35:00.000+01:002007-07-06T01:35:00.000+01:00Rent for $2000 and get $0 deduction. Buy for $2000...Rent for $2000 and get $0 deduction. Buy for $2000 of which $1500 is interest and get 30% $450 in tax savings. Yea, a great deal indeed.<BR/><BR/>--<BR/><BR/>Well aren't we a rocket scientist! Give $1,500 to the bank to save $450 in income tax? Brilliant! Plus, you can only deduct interest when you ITEMIZE. Depending on income, dependents and other factors, some people make out better with the STANDARD deduction.<BR/><BR/>Go build a rocket ship, Brainiac!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-54611023544663964752007-07-05T23:59:00.000+01:002007-07-05T23:59:00.000+01:00Keith,Answer your own question in reverse - "where...Keith,<BR/><BR/>Answer your own question in reverse - "where WILL all the people go"?<BR/><BR/>Back to the midwest with the "great" economy there? Not!<BR/><BR/>Back to California with the high taxes there? Nope!<BR/><BR/>Back to the east coast with the high cost of living? No.<BR/><BR/>Maybe over to Florida where the housing bust is twice as bad? I don't think so.<BR/><BR/>So I guess all these jobless masses will just camp out somewhere in Nebraska, eating grass and waiting for someone to save them.<BR/><BR/>Watch what happens now that businesses can't hire illegals - some of the former real-estate workers WILL take the low-paying service jobs to make ends meet, as wages rise in those positions to find people. Gee, the busboy or cook at Chili's might be an American again now.<BR/><BR/>-jzAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-71550933023418430652007-07-05T23:37:00.000+01:002007-07-05T23:37:00.000+01:00Rent for $2000 and get $0 deduction. Buy for $2000...<B>Rent for $2000 and get $0 deduction. Buy for $2000 of which $1500 is interest and get 30% $450 in tax savings. Yea, a great deal indeed.</B><BR/><BR/>Three thoughts:<BR/><BR/>1. I don't qualify for the so-called "tax break." It gets phased out at certain income levels, and for a single person like me it's not that high - $135k/year. If I were married, maybe, because they get it up to $300k. But I'm not.<BR/><BR/>2. I rent for $3,500 and half of that is home-office deduction. If you "own" all you can do is depreciate a portion of your <B>principal</B> payment for home office, and we all know there's no principal for the first several years of a mortgage - 7 years on a 30-year. And, you wind up paying most of it back when you sell the house. My dad found that out the hard way when he sold one house to move to another and the IRS sent a huge bill asking for all the home office deduction money back.<BR/><BR/>It's the same reason I lease a car for business use instead of buying one. Buy = $15,000 depreciation over 3 years. Lease = 100% deductible. <BR/><BR/>3. You conveniently left out the fact that a house is a depreciating asset right now. The loss in value will far outstrip any tax saving you might get, real or imaginary.<BR/><BR/>It's like what I tell salespeople who try to approach business owners and say "my product is tax-deductible." All business owners (successful ones, anyway) know it's stupid to buy something for a tax break, because an expense is an expense, period. It's smarter to save a dollar than to spend it and get a .30 cent reward for it.Frank Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07625929422222490759noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-78344518012575657672007-07-05T23:30:00.000+01:002007-07-05T23:30:00.000+01:00Why is there so much human trash and phony scum co...<B>Why is there so much human trash and phony scum concentrated in Arizona and Phoenix/Scottsdale in particular?</B><BR/><BR/>Because it was World Headquarters for the real estate ponzi scheme. Every shyster, huckster, and hard-luck loser looking for a chance to make a quick buck flocked there.<BR/> <BR/>It's a shame because it was a nice place to live pre-2002 or so.Frank Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07625929422222490759noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-91023665003914366342007-07-05T23:18:00.000+01:002007-07-05T23:18:00.000+01:00Arizona and population growth:Past performance doe...Arizona and population growth:<BR/><BR/>Past performance does not guarantee future returns<BR/><BR/>Say it with me<BR/><BR/>Past performance does not guarantee future returns<BR/><BR/>People moved to places like Nevada and Arizona why? Because of jobs. What accounts for the job growth? Housing! Now what happens when housing goes poof? Jobs go poof. What happens when there are no jobs? Population loss.<BR/><BR/>The great population gainers will see a serious boomerang effect now that housing has collapsed. Even the uncounted illegals may go home<BR/><BR/>Just watch. And you'll be amazed. "Where did all the people go" they'll say in Phoenix. "Where did all the people go"bloggerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06585266242070350399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-81920933544530507132007-07-05T23:07:00.000+01:002007-07-05T23:07:00.000+01:00sinis said... I live in AZ and people around me ar...sinis said... <BR/>I live in AZ and people around me are actually saying that they are hearing that RE will take off again!! I keep telling them its supply and demand and there is no way possible that prices will go up. They are all saying that they are going to be realwhores here soon. Oh well... <BR/><BR/>July 05, 2007 6:30 PM <BR/><BR/>-----------------------------------<BR/><BR/>I also live in AZ, and I know where that is coming from. Basically, what I have seen is that the recently released census figures of both businesses and individuals moving here is increasing. Gilbert alone grew by 74% in 2006, Phoenix just passed Philly for 5th position. Now, before I get flamed by someone claiming that is all illegal immigration and those people do not buy homes. Realize that illegals don't fill out census forms. They would not get near a census taker in a million years. They are afraid of them. So what remain are a lot of people, a lot of inventory and all needing a place to live. Prices have come down very little here except in the fringes. The people that are not getting foreclosed by their liar loans are just telling buyers "You don't want to pay, then find someone else to buy from, I am not going to sell". The builders are building less. The math will catch up, maybe not for a year, but it will catch up. I strongly doubt that the big "blood in the streets scenario" will happen. A correction, yes, 50% no way! As far as the big impending death of Wall Street etc. That won't happen either. There are too many smart, rich people with money in both RE and Stocks to let that happen. It is a good ole boys club in Wall Street, and you better believe they are not going to let Joe Six Pack "Flipper" and "Joe daytrader" effect their lifestyle. This RE cycle is simply that, a cycle. A shakeout of all the amateurs. If you don't think so, just sit back and watch. But make up your own mind about buying. If you don't buy - realize that you may lose, if you do buy or sell now - also realize you may lose, but either way, don't use a realtor. Use a service like help u sell or buy owner. At least then you are looking the seller in the eye, and making a deal based on straight talk and not all the manipulation of the middle men.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-10763480537033432702007-07-05T23:00:00.000+01:002007-07-05T23:00:00.000+01:00AZhostage said... Questions:Why is there so much h...AZhostage said... <BR/>Questions:<BR/>Why is there so much human trash and phony scum concentrated in Arizona and Phoenix/Scottsdale in particular?<BR/>What sin have I committed that has trapped me in this steaming,sweating low-life shithole?<BR/>Lord, what do I have to do to escape this horrific living curse of a place? <BR/><BR/>July 05, 2007 8:22 PM <BR/><BR/><BR/>===================================<BR/>STFU. If you don't like it move. Simple really.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-19366933322944838022007-07-05T22:58:00.000+01:002007-07-05T22:58:00.000+01:00Frank@NeverColdCall.com said... Oh Dear God, not m...Frank@NeverColdCall.com said... <BR/>Oh Dear God, not more of the 'buy for the tax deduction' nonsense!!!<BR/><BR/>Spend one dollar to get thirty cents back? What a great deal! NOT!!! <BR/><BR/>July 05, 2007 6:36 PM <BR/><BR/>-----------------------------------<BR/><BR/>Rent for $2000 and get $0 deduction. Buy for $2000 of which $1500 is interest and get 30% $450 in tax savings. Yea, a great deal indeed.<BR/><BR/>Not saying now is a good time to buy, but you can't discount the tax advantage like that either.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com