tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post534359747442882923..comments2023-12-30T10:06:37.450+00:00Comments on HousingPANIC - The Housing Bubble Blog with an Attitude Problem, 2005 - 2008: HousingPANIC Stupid Question of the Daybloggerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06585266242070350399noreply@blogger.comBlogger37125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-4924914002761853382007-05-01T16:55:00.000+01:002007-05-01T16:55:00.000+01:00Barbara Walters says; 20/20Barbara Walters says; 20/20Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-3204196603481880932007-05-01T16:53:00.000+01:002007-05-01T16:53:00.000+01:00It depends on the inflation rate. If we have hype...It depends on the inflation rate. If we have hyper inflation it could be 2015, but if no inflation then 2025! <BR/><BR/>This "wreak" won't bottom for years. Remember Florida real estate in the roaring "20's! It just returned to the 1920's prices during this bubble. <BR/><BR/>People are going to hate real estate at the bottom, and with the Dem.s talking about reducing the rental and second home deductability in taxes this could drop it even more.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-21032562021345911272007-05-01T11:07:00.000+01:002007-05-01T11:07:00.000+01:00"Are you people really THAT clueless? Are you not ..."Are you people really THAT clueless? Are you not aware of the fact that tax revenues are at an all-time high, or are you just dumb followers of the corrupt MSM who don't report that? Or are you reading flyers passed out by long-haired pot-smoking liberal college kids, and believing them???"<BR/><BR/>Frank, would you please do us a favor and stop with your simplistic platitudes that come straight from the trunk of Rush Limbaugh!<BR/><BR/>"Tax cuts (and "deferrals" as you call them) have increased tax revenue 100% of the time."<BR/><BR/>Yawn... We've been through this before. It's called the Laffer Curve and no serious economist buys into it. If there were any truth to it, tax rates would be lowered to zero and the government would then get an infinite supply of revenue.<BR/><BR/>"ax hikes have decreased tax revenue 100% of the time. "<BR/><BR/>You have no proof of this whatsoever!!!<BR/><BR/>"I've created a lot of jobs with my business and I can tell you that would not have been possible, at least not on this scale, under the oppressive, pre-Bush tax rates."<BR/><BR/>Most of the new GOOD jobs that have been created since Bush's tax cuts have been in India. There goes your trickle-down theory out the window.<BR/><BR/>"You gullible people who buy into the MSM's spin need to read some basic economic books. "<BR/><BR/>I suggest you do the same. And stop listening to Limbaugh!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-62970213859912623312007-05-01T09:35:00.000+01:002007-05-01T09:35:00.000+01:00Yes, frank, because printing yet more money to fin...<I>Yes, frank, because printing yet more money to finance the war in iraq while also lowering taxes will have no bad consequences at all.</I><BR/><BR/>Are you people really THAT clueless? Are you not aware of the fact that tax revenues are at an all-time high, or are you just dumb followers of the corrupt MSM who don't report that? Or are you reading flyers passed out by long-haired pot-smoking liberal college kids, and believing them???<BR/><BR/>Tax cuts (and "deferrals" as you call them) have increased tax revenue 100% of the time. Tax hikes have decreased tax revenue 100% of the time. <BR/><BR/>I've created a lot of jobs with my business and I can tell you that would not have been possible, at least not on this scale, under the oppressive, pre-Bush tax rates.<BR/> <BR/>You gullible people who buy into the MSM's spin need to read some basic economic books.Frank Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07625929422222490759noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-48102619998111539072007-05-01T09:22:00.000+01:002007-05-01T09:22:00.000+01:00I agree with the one who said that people who say ...I agree with the one who said that people who say 10 - 15 years do not understand "inflation adjusted". Adjust for inflation, home prices have never been this high and the debt load people are carrying because if this has never been greater. The consequences to our economy are going to be very severe and real estate investing will become taboo. Then, homes will go back to being a place to live. I'd say, they will not hit this peak again for another 50 years.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-4509488957525427792007-05-01T04:36:00.000+01:002007-05-01T04:36:00.000+01:0020202020Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-75834631278771052692007-05-01T01:40:00.000+01:002007-05-01T01:40:00.000+01:00I agree with apollonius and cow tipping, the answe...I agree with apollonius and cow tipping, the answer is never. Or at least not in our lifetimes.<BR/><BR/>Home prices are wildly inflated. Returning to this price level in inflation-adjusted terms would mean another bubble like the one we're in right now. Noone alive right now will get caught in another real estate bubble. Even stupid people, when they burn their hand on the stove they understand never to do it again.<BR/><BR/>They won't understand the causes or consequences of this bubble so they will remain susceptible to other bubbles but real estate will become a forbidden territory. Even when prices drop low enough that you can make a good profit on rental properties everyone will think you're crazy for investing in real estate. But that's how you know there's easy money to be made.Paul E. Mathhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03719759088047080921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-46529334921323097182007-05-01T01:17:00.000+01:002007-05-01T01:17:00.000+01:00Frank,Republican or Democrat, the next administrat...Frank,<BR/><BR/>Republican or Democrat, the next administration will likely be forced to raise taxes.<BR/><BR/>If we want to rest of the world to continue buying our bonds (for if they don't, we collapse) we need to comfort them by slowing down the deficit spending and debt accumulation. We are so far in hole now, there's no way spending cuts alone will do it.<BR/><BR/>For the same reason, interest rates will probably have to be kept kind of high (other countries selfishly want a return on their big bond purchases), which will provide further downward pressure on home prices.<BR/><BR/>My guess is D.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-62591001542854153312007-04-30T20:32:00.000+01:002007-04-30T20:32:00.000+01:00Going with Never. Or at least not in my life time....Going with <B>Never.</B> Or at least not in my life time.<BR/><BR/>We're at the end of a 25 year trend toward lowering taxes. I doubt taxes will ever be this low again (in my life time) or land so expensive. Unfortunately for me this coincides with my natural working life. <BR/><BR/>Bad timing on my part.Apolloniushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12276810029052418383noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-59269783892720319002007-04-30T20:30:00.000+01:002007-04-30T20:30:00.000+01:0020172017Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09833211033844942379noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-66395359864401843742007-04-30T20:07:00.000+01:002007-04-30T20:07:00.000+01:00Remember, folks, the key phrase was inflation-adju...Remember, folks, the key phrase was <B>inflation-adjusted</B>. If you think that prices are going get anywhere near as high in terms of real dollars anytime soon then you don't understand the question.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-89985495652304378252007-04-30T18:50:00.000+01:002007-04-30T18:50:00.000+01:00Likely not this century, if ever. Read the Robert ...Likely not this century, if ever. Read the Robert Shiller paper "Long-Term Perspectives on the Current Boom in Home Prices" for some historical perspectives. The current US boom is unprecedented throughout history.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-66083960423439400612007-04-30T18:18:00.000+01:002007-04-30T18:18:00.000+01:00If the republicans win the whitehouse in 2008, the...If the republicans win the whitehouse in 2008, they will create even more easy lending policies, with no regulation;like they always do,and hyperinflation sets in by 2010, and that 2006 dollar will be worth a nickel in real 2006 purchasing power by 2010. So your question Keith needs to phrased accordingly.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-1291188137196665662007-04-30T18:15:00.000+01:002007-04-30T18:15:00.000+01:0020162016Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-86540991579472603492007-04-30T18:02:00.000+01:002007-04-30T18:02:00.000+01:00come on folks, be reasonable. assuming 2008 makes...come on folks, be reasonable. assuming 2008 makes 2007 look like 2006, we should hit rock bottom sometime late next year into 2009. so an inflation-adjusted recovery by 2015 seems plausible.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-72518866960661455142007-04-30T17:30:00.000+01:002007-04-30T17:30:00.000+01:00You have to love Republicans. They had control of...You have to love Republicans. They had control of all branches of government for 6 years and did nothing but lead the country to historic levels of debt. They presided over the largest bubble creation in all of history.<BR/><BR/>But those darn Democrats are going to ruin things in 2008!Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10602004656204639734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-28160304565097488932007-04-30T17:29:00.000+01:002007-04-30T17:29:00.000+01:00Yes, frank, because printing yet more money to fin...Yes, frank, because printing yet more money to finance the war in iraq while also lowering taxes will have no bad consequences at all.<BR/><BR/>In order to protect the environment a little they could at least replace $5 bills with $500 bills as those printers start overheating.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-54159566491620611352007-04-30T17:17:00.000+01:002007-04-30T17:17:00.000+01:00Bingo...Bingo...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-40700089106763783702007-04-30T16:52:00.000+01:002007-04-30T16:52:00.000+01:00I am going with a Nasdaq scenario -- never.I am going with a Nasdaq scenario -- never.Lost Causehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18396272153746076615noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-66253895398720738922007-04-30T15:36:00.000+01:002007-04-30T15:36:00.000+01:00Well let's see with the boomers retiring soon and ...Well let's see with the boomers retiring soon and therefore selling ther homes I'd say adjusted for inflation maybe 50- 60 years. That's about the right time for the next bubble, you need to wait until most of the people living through the current one are dead before you can get a new batch of suckers to fall for the same old line. <BR/><BR/>"It's different this time!"Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-37612409831909711952007-04-30T15:14:00.000+01:002007-04-30T15:14:00.000+01:002012, as foreign countries shift their over popula...2012, as foreign countries shift their over population burden to the U.S. by using their dollar reserves to purchase U.S. real estate.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-68713280120575583822007-04-30T15:06:00.000+01:002007-04-30T15:06:00.000+01:00E) Not this century.Also - Frank, you are a bit c...E) Not this century.<BR/><BR/>Also - Frank, you are a bit clueless. There have been no tax cuts under the current crop of Republican idiots. There have only been <B>tax deferrals</B>. Everything that looks like a tax cut to you is borrowed money put on credit cards, mainly the one issued by the Chinese government. Real tax cuts include spending cuts, which Republicans were unable to enact despite having full control of all three branches of the federal government. Of course the reason they were unable to cut spending is that they don't actually believe in small government; they believe in small government when Democrats are in charge, and in looting the government for their cronies when they are in charge.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-88070786529928389112007-04-30T14:48:00.000+01:002007-04-30T14:48:00.000+01:00Probably never. Remember that rents are a substan...Probably never. Remember that rents are a substantial part of the inflation indices and that the fair value of real estate is determined by the rent. So, one should expect that RE prices would be strongly tied to inflation. And the historical data backs this up. Generally, RE prices are relatively flat in inflation adjusted dollars.<BR/><BR/>We're currently at 2x the fair value. It'll fall back to fair value as everything eventually does (in real dollars.)<BR/><BR/>After the crash, it will take a long time for the market to forget the pain.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-20388316941634495242007-04-30T14:32:00.000+01:002007-04-30T14:32:00.000+01:00never say never.But hopefully not in our lifetimes...never say never.<BR/><BR/>But hopefully not in our lifetimes. The last credit explosion like this occurred in the 1920's. <BR/>Since the median price is 5-10x income in many areas, and real/adjusted incomes are going down thanks to global income arbitrage, I'd say the housing median price in adjusted prices represents the American society's high-water mark for greed, corruption, wealth, and ignorance of anything other than our own appetites.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-32456803765858970632007-04-30T14:14:00.000+01:002007-04-30T14:14:00.000+01:002020 - if people that bought after 2003 can hold o...2020 - if people that bought after 2003 can hold onto their homes until then - it may be possible for them to walk away with their original investment. If they ever take away the $250K/single and $500K/couple capital gains exemption - assets may never look so good again though.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com