tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post5298415389317019599..comments2023-12-30T10:06:37.450+00:00Comments on HousingPANIC - The Housing Bubble Blog with an Attitude Problem, 2005 - 2008: FLASH: New home prices crash at least 11% nationwide while sales fall 10% VERSUS LAST YEARbloggerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06585266242070350399noreply@blogger.comBlogger131125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-78948377190253817842007-05-29T02:00:00.000+01:002007-05-29T02:00:00.000+01:00Bankguy said:"If I had an investment fund, Brazil ...Bankguy said:<BR/>"If I had an investment fund, Brazil is one of the last countries I'd consider..."<BR/><BR/>It doesn't matter what you or I would consider. What is China going to do with it's trade surplus? As of now it looks like they're on a global raw materials and resource shopping spree that is giving them plenty of incentive to invest in developing countries on a massive scale. China is investing in places like Sudan because of the oil in the Darfur region. See http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/engdahl/2007/0521.html.<BR/>Nope. Don't depend on China to support the DOW or the housing market. <BR/>BTW. The DOW is way down if you measure it in commodities such as oil, gold, silver, or industrial metals. It is also down in Euros or Pounds. In Real dollars it will have to hit 14,000 just to return to its Y2K high. <BR/>Housing is on its way down as well. Its just a matter of time. Stay in cash.RJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07307437595686083352noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-91900014094243180482007-05-28T05:58:00.000+01:002007-05-28T05:58:00.000+01:00Keep spinning away losers. Oh no 16% up is really ...<I>Keep spinning away losers. Oh no 16% up is really a 10% down. I live in a shithole apartment instead of a beautful house, but I'm so much better off. I drive a 20 year old Honda instead of a new BMW but I'm so much happier.</I><BR/>-----<BR/>I live in a nice 2 bed appartment on the lake on a 25 acre parcel that's mostly woods and lawn -- deer, rabits, beavers, the occaisional osprey. It feels like being in the country but I'm actually right in town. It's nice. Houses in the same area with waterfront (my window is 30' from the water) are 0.5 to 1m and stacked atop each other like sardines. For real open space like I have, the homeowners have to go to a park. I pay $780 per month.<BR/><BR/>My car is an older jetta. About 4 years ago, before it was paid off, I thought about upgrading. Then the title came in the mail and the next month I had no payment to make. That was the first moment I truly loved that car. The last thing I want now is a BMW car payment. All my paid off car takes is insurance, oil, and gas. I love it.<BR/><BR/>And as for the gas, every month I'm making 5 times my energy usage (and this is at unleaded for $3.60/gal) with my canroys (Canadian Royalty Trusts -- oil/nat. gas). I suppose I could have used that money as a downpayment on a crappy house in a lousy neighborhood, but my canroys are paying about 12-14% in dividends, with payments made monthly. With a weakening dollar, they're going to get sweeter. <BR/><BR/>PLUS, the 15% tax the Canadian govt takes off the dividends, I can deduct dollar for dollar from my US tax liability (this isn't the game of reducing taxable income, if I owed $10 and paid $2 to Canada, I'd pay the US $8). Considering what a boondogle Bush has caused, I feel much better paying taxes to Canada than to my own country.<BR/><BR/>Anyway, I have a nice place, an OK and well-running car, investments that pay me a nice dividend, and no debt (except for my student loans). I'm totally happy not having my nestegg tied up in real estate.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-52013896977996456092007-05-27T22:42:00.000+01:002007-05-27T22:42:00.000+01:00If I had an investment fund, Brazil is one of the ...If I had an investment fund, Brazil is one of the last countries I'd consider. Brazillian courts have a piss-poor record for upholding contract and property rights for foreign investors, and their government bureaucracy is about as corrupt as any you'll find in South America. Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia, the U.S., Canada, and English-speaking EU countries all are much better places to put capital to work.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-786940464953159182007-05-27T20:14:00.000+01:002007-05-27T20:14:00.000+01:00Hey, for those trying to catch a falling star, rem...Hey, for those trying to catch a falling star, remember the number 17. That is the number of years it took Japan for its RE market to reach historical P/E norms. <BR/><BR/>17 YEARS! <BR/><BR/>At best we are in year two, and right now we are in a massive and cruel bull trap. Anons wanting to have the sheriff boot some poor suckers out who got caught with a toxic loan cuz you are entitled to upgrade your house and they were in the way!?<BR/><BR/>Just remember, those thugs in a uniform know where you live too!<BR/><BR/>King of the Bitter RentersUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14162153473676990398noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-47934743226375216232007-05-27T20:12:00.000+01:002007-05-27T20:12:00.000+01:00Hey, for those trying to catch a falling star, rem...Hey, for those trying to catch a falling star, remember the number 17. That is the number of years it took Japan for its RE market to reach historical P/E norms. <BR/><BR/>17 YEARS! <BR/><BR/>At best we are in year two, and right now we are in a massive and cruel bull trap. Anons wanting to have the sheriff boot some poor suckers out who got caught with a toxic loan cuz you are entitled to upgrade your house and they were in the way!?<BR/><BR/>Just remember, those thugs in a uniform know where you live too!<BR/><BR/>King of the Bitter RentersUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14162153473676990398noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-76591922394198971792007-05-27T17:00:00.000+01:002007-05-27T17:00:00.000+01:00MAYBE IF THE BUILDERS START GIVING NEW HOMES AWAY ...MAYBE IF THE BUILDERS START GIVING NEW HOMES AWAY FOR "FREE", THEY CAN CONTINUE TO BOOST SALES NUMBERS TO THE MOON IN THE COMING MONTHS!<BR/><BR/>WHAT A FARCE!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-77736756018014802172007-05-27T11:07:00.000+01:002007-05-27T11:07:00.000+01:00"Brazil? Their markets are too small to absorb eve..."Brazil? Their markets are too small to absorb even a fraction of the investment capital in the new Chinese fund."<BR/><BR/>Brazil is the 8th largest economy in the world. The GDP of the state of Sao Paulo alone is greater than the entire GDP of Argentina. The Chinese (and South Koreans) is all over Brazil, sending trade delegations, opening trade offices, building factories, building strong commercial relationships, etc. Meanwhile, the US is distracted with expensive phony wars.<BR/><BR/>Another thing, Brazil has commenced the project of 4 more nuclear power plants, which indicate future needs of clean energy for rapid economic expansion. They already have 2 plants (Angra I and Angra II) that are about 30 years old, never had a problem, and totally built with total Brazilian technology.<BR/><BR/>Let's see: the 8th economy in the world, fifth largest country in size, population of 200 million, biggest biodiversity areas in the planet that attract investments from Chinese biotech companies, successful mfr and one of the main suppliers of aircrafts (Embraer), largest exporter of commodities (soy, coffee, sugar, orange juice, ethanol, metals from company Vale do Rio Doce), world's largest exporter of poultry, satellite launch provider, currently number 1 market for Ferraris in the world, second largest in private jets (only behind the US), third largest in helicopters (only behind the US and Japan), auto sufficient in oil (Petrobras), one of the main manufacturers and exporters of automobiles (VW, Mercedes, Audi, Toyota, Mitsubishi, Nissan, Ford, Citroen, etc), largest mfr and exporter of footwear, world's largest iron ore producer, there are 93 million cell users (and growing) which makes Brazil the 6th in the world. BTW, all the Motorola cell phones sold in the US are made in Brazil. The list is too long.<BR/><BR/>The Brazilian economy and market is huge with less than one fifth of the country's potential farmlands being cultivated. While the US gets distracted with stupid stuff (like the phony war on terror thing), China has been building important economic and strategic alliances all over South America.<BR/><BR/>China wants to diversify away from that huge amount of worthless American treasuries. Investing more money back into the US wouldn't create a very good hedge.<BR/><BR/>Finally, here are the top 10 export markets for Brazil in 2005. China is climbing fast and furious, already in third place:<BR/><BR/>1. United States (18.9% of total exports)<BR/>2. Argentina (8.4%)<BR/>3. China (5.7%)<BR/>4. Netherlands (4.5%)<BR/>5. Germany (4.2%)<BR/>6. Mexico (3.5%)<BR/>7. Chile (3.1%)<BR/>8. Japan (3.0%)<BR/>9. Italy (2.7%)<BR/>10. Russia (2.5%)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-89747488761021099242007-05-27T04:12:00.000+01:002007-05-27T04:12:00.000+01:00Someone said:Apparently, a nontrivial portion of t...Someone said:<BR/><BR/><B>Apparently, a nontrivial portion of the people on the sidelines seem to believe that the current downturn in residential real estate is a normal cyclical downturn and that we are near the bottom. If so, buying now isn't such a bad idea. <BR/><BR/>If, on the other hand, the downturn turns out to be much longer/deeper, then these folks are going to have to wait a long time to recoup even the current discounted prices.</B><BR/><BR/>Well, the thing to realize here is that housing prices ARE cyclical, and DOES follow trends. Anyone who's unfamiliar with the periodicity (AKA cyclical nature) of a sine wave is urged to examine one!<BR/><BR/>A review of a graph of Schiller housing prices (Which covers 150-odd years) shows that what goes up ALWAYS comes down: revision to the mean is a beatch! Take all the "noise" and variability out of the graph, and you'll see that home prices appreciate only 0/4%, ON AVERAGE.<BR/><BR/>Of course, the problem is many people's only experience with paying attention to home prices has occurred in recent years: so their whole experience is filled with home prices going UP, not DOWN. <BR/><BR/>Shame: maybe if they'd taken an Economics 101 course, they'd have even a modicum of knowledge about market behavior as it pertains to "bubbles" (AKA boom/bust cycles).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-14927438546466415682007-05-26T19:39:00.000+01:002007-05-26T19:39:00.000+01:00DOW is up and homedebtors are down. Stupid debt la...DOW is up and homedebtors are down. Stupid debt laden fools think they are rich. HAHAHAAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-12693921053127627322007-05-26T05:40:00.000+01:002007-05-26T05:40:00.000+01:0080% profit my arse!80% profit my arse!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-761407094731779492007-05-25T22:56:00.000+01:002007-05-25T22:56:00.000+01:00"I sold my house in December and paid 7.5% in fees..."I sold my house in December and paid 7.5% in fees.<BR/><BR/>6% was for the realtor<BR/>1.5% was for misc. fees"<BR/><BR/>Did you even try to negotiate the 6%? I did when I sold and got the agents to split 4%Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-16391491631270398512007-05-25T18:53:00.000+01:002007-05-25T18:53:00.000+01:00New home sales are the canary in the mine harbinge...<I>New home sales are the canary in the mine harbinger.</I><BR/><BR/>New building permits are a more forward leading indicator.<BR/><BR/>Off a cliff...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-3910195291649023042007-05-25T18:41:00.000+01:002007-05-25T18:41:00.000+01:00Nah nah nahnah nah nahheyyy heyyy heeyyy goood bye...Nah nah nah<BR/>nah nah nah<BR/>heyyy heyyy heeyyy <BR/>goood byee<BR/><BR/>Buh bye Keith. You are becoming irrelevant. There was no bubble, there is no bubble. There was no crash thee is no crash.<BR/><BR/>Housing is booming again. Dow is setting records every day. Only thing that's crashing is your readership.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-82128882662980182252007-05-25T17:38:00.000+01:002007-05-25T17:38:00.000+01:00Just sold a house in salt lake city for a 80% prof...Just sold a house in salt lake city for a 80% profit in 1 1/2 years. The market is still selling in Utah. I think its the best market in the USA. no gloom and doom.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-32384705230362225752007-05-25T17:19:00.000+01:002007-05-25T17:19:00.000+01:00I love the people who are oblivious to the facts s...I love the people who are oblivious to the facts see this blip on the bubble, and think the next month is even going to be better! Like watching a ship sink then watch in it's death throws jut out of the water before it goes to it's watery grave in the deep dark depths of the ocean. All the while these morons on the rail pointing and saying "LOOK IT IS COMING BACK UP!!!", then as it slides into the depths they say...."oh". <BR/><BR/>Yeah this means that all the economists and all the data are wrong, the inventories **poof** gone, all the foreclosures **poof** gone, all the subprime and alt-a messes **poof** gone. I guess you guys are firmly planted in the land of logic and reason, and definitely not being unrealistic and stupid....no not at all.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-18882551478420771802007-05-25T17:14:00.000+01:002007-05-25T17:14:00.000+01:00QUOTE: "Keep spinning away losers. Oh no 16% up is...QUOTE: "Keep spinning away losers. Oh no 16% up is really a 10% down. I live in a shithole apartment instead of a beautful house, but I'm so much better off. I drive a 20 year old Honda instead of a new BMW but I'm so much happier. I don't follow the "mainstream" media, I only follow the rantings of crackpots online and I'm so much smarter."<BR/><BR/>Everything you say here is true, so if you were meaning to troll, a word of advice, "Sarcasm doesn't work in text".Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-14678299211660504202007-05-25T17:13:00.000+01:002007-05-25T17:13:00.000+01:00QUOTE "The thing is builders can afford to discoun...QUOTE "The thing is builders can afford to discount prices in a way individual homedebtors never could. My guess would be that there is some kind of "fire sale" on new homes going on, getting as much cash back in the bank before the market really tumbles. I am betting the existing home sales will be bloody awful! An individual cannot go lower than what they owe, period. This is going to be interesting....."<BR/><BR/>This is what I said yesterday, and today we hear that existing homes sales suffered there biggest drop in FOUR years, how are all you trolls feeling today, bit stupid? Well, that would be the same way you feel every day, I suppose.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-82531518587597291902007-05-25T15:46:00.000+01:002007-05-25T15:46:00.000+01:00The funny thing is that FB's have no money to inve...The funny thing is that FB's have no money to invest in the stock market because all of it is tied into that overpriced boat anchor home which is depreciating in value. LMAOAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-13447179516816054482007-05-25T15:15:00.000+01:002007-05-25T15:15:00.000+01:00Sales of new homes rose so dramatically BECAUSE ho...Sales of new homes rose so dramatically BECAUSE home sales in March were so low. If March sales hadn't been horrible, decent April sales wouldn't have been such a contrast. April 2007 sales are still lower than April 2006 sales, most articles just don't mention that.<BR/><BR/>April home sales are up from March because it's spring and because some sellers are finally dropping their prices. Even with dropping prices, fewer houses are selling than did last year in the same month.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-13159168412230280212007-05-25T15:08:00.000+01:002007-05-25T15:08:00.000+01:00"And Bill Gross said it's now UNLIKELY the FED cut...<B>"And Bill Gross said it's now UNLIKELY the FED cuts interest rates.<BR/><BR/>Not exactly "interest rates will go down" as you interpreted it."</B><BR/><BR/>The Fed doesn't control mortgage interest rates. They are largely a supply and demand situation and since 2001, the Bank of Japan has been pumping the "supply" by way of the carry trade. Now China's central bank is about to enter the picture with $350B to lend (on top of the $400B investment fund). With that much money entering the system, do you honestly think rates are going to rise?<BR/><BR/>Figure it out and stop believing the doomsday crowd. There WILL be a reckoning some day, but it may be 5, 10, or even 20 years from now.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-82327181991275093292007-05-25T14:54:00.000+01:002007-05-25T14:54:00.000+01:00Report from the street (my 'street'):Local aquaint...Report from the street (my 'street'):<BR/><BR/>Local aquaintences that have been involved in the Real Estate industry are mostly now either:<BR/>-out of work and looking for a job<BR/>-lucky to have kept their job but proactively looking for another job <BR/><BR/>This is in a "non-bubble" area. I really think the fast food joints around here could use some help from these clerks. Unfortunately, they'll have to adjust to earning what they're really worth.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-39194088299889605862007-05-25T14:06:00.000+01:002007-05-25T14:06:00.000+01:00Anonymous said... 108 posts on this topic...now th...Anonymous said... <BR/>108 posts on this topic...now that is a sign of panic, among the renting crowd. <BR/><BR/>Keep spinning away losers. Oh no 16% up is really a 10% down. I live in a shithole apartment instead of a beautful house, but I'm so much better off. I drive a 20 year old Honda instead of a new BMW but I'm so much happier. I don't follow the "mainstream" media, I only follow the rantings of crackpots online and I'm so much smarter.<BR/><BR/>Yeah sure thing. <BR/><BR/>May 25, 2007 10:52 AM<BR/>-----------------<BR/>The pathetic trolls just will never admit it until they are the one's out on the street and they will say "I never saw it coming" <BR/><BR/>New home sales are up MoM 16% but down YoY 10% and price is down 11% but I did not catch if this # was YoY or MoM.<BR/><BR/>New home sales are the canary in the mine harbinger. Resales must compete or sit & rot until developers work through all their excess inventory. Many sellers cannot wait that long and will do what must be done to compete for buyers or refuse and go into foreclosure instead which creates the same result, a price competitive resale.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-81902399533580557142007-05-25T11:52:00.000+01:002007-05-25T11:52:00.000+01:00108 posts on this topic...now that is a sign of pa...108 posts on this topic...now that is a sign of panic, among the renting crowd. <BR/><BR/>Keep spinning away losers. Oh no 16% up is really a 10% down. I live in a shithole apartment instead of a beautful house, but I'm so much better off. I drive a 20 year old Honda instead of a new BMW but I'm so much happier. I don't follow the "mainstream" media, I only follow the rantings of crackpots online and I'm so much smarter.<BR/><BR/>Yeah sure thing.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-39756613059886833762007-05-25T10:54:00.000+01:002007-05-25T10:54:00.000+01:00You know maybe we can't entirely blame the MSM her...You know maybe we can't entirely blame the MSM here, the whole liberal media diatribe injects a sort of "give em what they want" approach to the news.<BR/><BR/>Obviously more complicated then that, editors are a cowardly corporate hacks nowadays. Newpaper magagement is attending cocktail parties with Carl Rove.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-76131070936054639562007-05-25T10:33:00.000+01:002007-05-25T10:33:00.000+01:00What does LOL stand for as everytime I look for th...What does LOL stand for as everytime I look for that word? i get lolita porn???Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com