tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post4923968681609678788..comments2023-12-30T10:06:37.450+00:00Comments on HousingPANIC - The Housing Bubble Blog with an Attitude Problem, 2005 - 2008: BUBBLETALK - new thread to talk about the housing collapsebloggerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06585266242070350399noreply@blogger.comBlogger366125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-15344280077969715302007-06-20T17:30:00.000+01:002007-06-20T17:30:00.000+01:00More solid proof that the housing catastrophy impa...More solid proof that the housing catastrophy impacts all business tied to it, directly or in-directly.<BR/><BR/>Now, that the housing industry has collapsed, those that were content<BR/>prices would go ever and ever upwards, are now fighting to keep what they have - suing if necessary to try and recoup their losses.<BR/><BR/>We're now in a position to be only reactive to the housing crisis and it's long term effects on the economy at large - a bad place to be for everyone.<BR/><BR/>~~~<BR/><BR/>Anonymous said... <BR/>Subprime storm winds will keep blowing<BR/><BR/>The number of homes entering foreclosure is expected to top 1 million this year, with 60% of those being subprime mortgages, says mortgage giant Freddie Mac.<BR/><BR/>The Mortgage Bankers Association predicts that adjustable-rate subprime foreclosures, already at a record, will rise into 2008, affecting borrowers, lenders and such Wall Street firms as Goldman Sachs and Bear Stearns, which packaged subprime loans into bonds.<BR/><BR/>Markets feel the stress<BR/><BR/>Bondholders are starting to feel the hit. Bear Stearns, the largest packager of subprime mortgages, saw its first-quarter profit rise 8%. But Bear Stearns' investors may not be doing as well. <BR/><BR/>The company's special $642 million hedge fund has lost 23% this year. The High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies Enhanced Leverage Fund, designed for wealthy investors, not only invests in subprime mortgages, but borrows money to invest, amplifying gains and losses.<BR/><BR/>The Bear Stearns experience is extreme, but investors are increasingly feeling pain from subprime mortgages. <BR/><BR/>On Monday, Moody's Investors Service, a Wall Street rating firm, downgraded 131 securities backed by subprime mortgages. "Second-lien mortgage loans securitized in 2006 are defaulting at a rate materially higher than expectations," Moody's said in a press release.<BR/><BR/>As defaults mount, investors will find themselves with fewer options. Bondholders will have relatively little cause to sue the companies that put together subprime-backed bonds, says Nanci Weissgold, partner at law firm Kirkpatrick & Lockhart Preston Gates Ellis. <BR/><BR/>Typically, the legal language in the bond's offering literature is broad enough for the packagers to argue that its risks were fully disclosed.<BR/><BR/>Nevertheless, where there are losses, there are lawsuits. Already, some buyers of mortgage-backed securities are suing investment banks, who, in turn, are suing mortgage originators. <BR/><BR/>In April, Bankers Life Insurance sued Credit Suisse for $1.3 million. Bankers Life had bought mortgage-backed bonds created by Credit Suisse in 2004. The bonds suffered a long series of downgrades, knocking their value down to a small fraction of their original value, according to the law firm of Paul Hastings Janofsky & Walker. <BR/><BR/>Bankers Life says that it wouldn't have bought the Credit Suisse securities if it had known how risky they really were. Essentially, the lawsuit says, the loans were made improperly, then packaged and sold to investors. <BR/><BR/>http://www.usatoday.com/money/<BR/>economy/housing/2007-06-18-<BR/>subprime-usat_N.htmAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-59050891206013087032007-06-20T04:24:00.000+01:002007-06-20T04:24:00.000+01:00This has driven me to start blogging about my loss...This has driven me to start blogging about my losses. <A HREF="http://www.condofiasco.com" REL="nofollow">condofiasco.com</A>Zackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11923460725681600753noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-54368805359898735242007-06-19T05:54:00.000+01:002007-06-19T05:54:00.000+01:00Subprime storm winds will keep blowingThe number o...Subprime storm winds will keep blowing<BR/><BR/>The number of homes entering foreclosure is expected to top 1 million this year, with 60% of those being subprime mortgages, says mortgage giant Freddie Mac.<BR/><BR/>The Mortgage Bankers Association predicts that adjustable-rate subprime foreclosures, already at a record, will rise into 2008, affecting borrowers, lenders and such Wall Street firms as Goldman Sachs and Bear Stearns, which packaged subprime loans into bonds.<BR/><BR/>Markets feel the stress<BR/><BR/>Bondholders are starting to feel the hit. Bear Stearns, the largest packager of subprime mortgages, saw its first-quarter profit rise 8%. But Bear Stearns' investors may not be doing as well. <BR/><BR/>The company's special $642 million hedge fund has lost 23% this year. The High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies Enhanced Leverage Fund, designed for wealthy investors, not only invests in subprime mortgages, but borrows money to invest, amplifying gains and losses.<BR/><BR/>The Bear Stearns experience is extreme, but investors are increasingly feeling pain from subprime mortgages. <BR/><BR/>On Monday, Moody's Investors Service, a Wall Street rating firm, downgraded 131 securities backed by subprime mortgages. "Second-lien mortgage loans securitized in 2006 are defaulting at a rate materially higher than expectations," Moody's said in a press release.<BR/><BR/>As defaults mount, investors will find themselves with fewer options. Bondholders will have relatively little cause to sue the companies that put together subprime-backed bonds, says Nanci Weissgold, partner at law firm Kirkpatrick & Lockhart Preston Gates Ellis. <BR/><BR/>Typically, the legal language in the bond's offering literature is broad enough for the packagers to argue that its risks were fully disclosed.<BR/><BR/>Nevertheless, where there are losses, there are lawsuits. Already, some buyers of mortgage-backed securities are suing investment banks, who, in turn, are suing mortgage originators. <BR/><BR/>In April, Bankers Life Insurance sued Credit Suisse for $1.3 million. Bankers Life had bought mortgage-backed bonds created by Credit Suisse in 2004. The bonds suffered a long series of downgrades, knocking their value down to a small fraction of their original value, according to the law firm of Paul Hastings Janofsky & Walker. <BR/><BR/>Bankers Life says that it wouldn't have bought the Credit Suisse securities if it had known how risky they really were. Essentially, the lawsuit says, the loans were made improperly, then packaged and sold to investors. <BR/><BR/>http://www.usatoday.com/money/<BR/>economy/housing/2007-06-18-<BR/>subprime-usat_N.htmAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-27272166676043608512007-06-19T05:35:00.000+01:002007-06-19T05:35:00.000+01:00Incentives are now a vital part of the slumping ho...Incentives are now a vital part of the slumping home market<BR/><BR/> Bloated with inventory, the residential real estate market's sales have slowed to a trickle, but prices have held firm. Or have they?<BR/><BR/>According to the National Association of Realtors, the median price of all housing types nationwide was $220,900 in April, down about 0.8 percent from a year earlier, when it was $222,600. <BR/><BR/> That sounds reasonably firm.<BR/><BR/>In April, the number of condominiums sold in Florida was down 27 percent from the prior year and median prices were up slightly, according to the Florida Association of Realtors.<BR/><BR/>That sounds very firm, but take a closer look.<BR/><BR/>Compared to 2006, the April condo sales pace dropped 57 percent in Orlando, 30 percent in Miami-Dade and 22 percent in Broward.<BR/><BR/>What the statistics don't show are the vast amount of incentives used to still move some inventory in both the new and resale markets, according to Peter Zalewski, broker for Bal Harbour-based Condo Vultures Realty.<BR/><BR/>Artificially inflated<BR/><BR/>A developer or seller can offer incentives, yet the property still sells at an artificially inflated price. That keeps the earlier buyers happy and still allows appraisals at the higher figure for loans and refinancing.<BR/><BR/>Zalewski sees up to 20 percent buyer incentives on a regular basis, from little or no down payments or no closing costs up to a 9 percent cash rebate, paid condo maintenance fees for up to two years and even master leases that make all payments for one or two years and guarantee a tenant for investment buyers.<BR/><BR/>"Many Orlando developers are paying an 11 percent broker commission - about four times the industry norm," Zalewski said.<BR/><BR/>His buyers like that because Condo Vultures gives its clients anything over 3 percent the firm earns on a deal.<BR/><BR/> Incentives appear to be the edge du jour for sellers.<BR/><BR/>Good old days<BR/><BR/>It's not like the past several years, when lines of buyers snaked around the block for three days and nights before a grand opening for the privilege of buying in a condo conversion. <BR/><BR/>Now, it's tough to make those sales.<BR/><BR/> Greasing the sales wheels<BR/><BR/>It is not just condo conversions greasing the sales wheels with incentives, or completed communities with excess inventory. Even communities that have not broken yet ground are getting their feet wet in the incentive pool.<BR/><BR/>Worthing Place, a Delray Beach high-rise condominium on Atlantic Boulevard, is offering a range of incentives just prior to the construction phase to reach its critical mass of sales needed for groundbreaking. They include interest-bearing deposits, an on-site rental program for investors, two years of mortgage assistance, two years of paid maintenance fees and a fly-and-buy program that picks up airfare and accommodations for qualified out-of-town buyers.<BR/><BR/>It could be worse.<BR/><BR/>Jim Beran, a Fort Lauderdale businessman with local rental property who has been traveling in the Midwest, said in an e-mail that three-story brick homes in Michigan's west coast resort communities are selling for as little as $35,000 each - with few takers.<BR/><BR/>"The South Florida market may have caught cold," Beran said, "but the Midwest has pneumonia." <BR/><BR/>http://milwaukee.bizjournals.com/<BR/>milwaukee/othercities/<BR/>southflorida/stories/2007/06/18/<BR/>story9.html?b=1182139200^1476927Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-69202195857346431552007-06-19T05:27:00.000+01:002007-06-19T05:27:00.000+01:00U.S. Homebuilder Confidence Declines to 16-Year Lo...U.S. Homebuilder Confidence Declines to 16-Year Low<BR/><BR/>Confidence among U.S. homebuilders fell this month to the lowest since February 1991 as interest rates climbed and delinquencies surged.<BR/><BR/>The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo index of sentiment declined to 28 this month from 30 in May, the Washington-based association said today. Readings below 50 mean most respondents view conditions as poor. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News forecast the gauge to stay unchanged this month.<BR/><BR/>Homebuilders including Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. are losing money as they cut prices to stem a slide in sales amid stricter standards for getting mortgages. Builders have scaled back projects to work off bloated inventories, a sign housing construction will weigh on growth for the rest of the year, economists say.<BR/><BR/>``There will be continuing declines in home building through the second half'' of this year, said Robert Mellman, an economist at JPMorgan Chase Corp. in New York. ``If rates hadn't gone up, we would have expected it would have stabilized. We've put off the stabilization in housing until early next year.'' <BR/><BR/>http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/<BR/>news?pid=20601068&sid=aOKq.<BR/>kVLKHB4&refer=economyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-837988851174663202007-06-19T05:14:00.000+01:002007-06-19T05:14:00.000+01:00When lenders compete, borrowers might not always w...When lenders compete, borrowers might not always win.<BR/><BR/>In fact, borrowers could lose big. It's up to borrowers to figure out their financial situation, know how much house they can afford and not use a mortgage as an excuse to overspend.<BR/><BR/>Part of that process involves getting finances in order, finding a lender and getting matched with a loan product that suits that person's financial picture.<BR/><BR/>In the fourth quarter of 2006, 1.19 percent of 43.5 million outstanding loans were in the foreclosure process, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. That's up 20 basis points over the fourth quarter of 2005.<BR/><BR/>Mortgage Bankers Association Chairman John Robbins said only a small percentage of delinquencies occur because borrowers don't manage their credit well.<BR/><BR/>He cautioned that there is a lot more to home ownership than a monthly payment, such as taxes and maintenance costs.<BR/><BR/>Once prospective borrowers figure out how much they can spend on a monthly payment, then they can think about getting a mortgage.<BR/><BR/>"I would recommend they start with a 30-year fixed mortgage," Robbins said. "It's the safest because you never have to worry about whether the interest rates are going to go up. You've eliminated any upsided risk."<BR/><BR/>He said consumers should start with the most conservative product and then, depending on their income, they can move to products with more risk.<BR/><BR/>"Fifty to 60 percent of borrowers should use nothing but a fixed-rate mortgage," said Ron Cahalan, author of 'Lenders Are Liars.' "If they're using anything else, they're buying more house than they can afford."<BR/><BR/>Cahalan said he's worked in the mortgage industry for 26 years and that 30 percent of loan officers don't counsel borrowers on the risks.<BR/><BR/>"You, as a borrower, need to ask all the right questions. Will the payments go up? If so, what's the worst case scenario?" Cahalan asked.<BR/><BR/>When To Buy<BR/><BR/>Your credit score can impact if or how much house you can buy, so housing affordability can be a concern to someone with less-than-perfect credit.<BR/><BR/>In some instances, home ownership might not be ideal depending on a person's financial situation.<BR/><BR/>A prospective buyer whose credit score is not high is seen as a higher lending risk and might only be eligible for a subprime loan.<BR/><BR/>"Most subprime borrowers should never be buying in the first place," Cahalan said.<BR/><BR/>He said subprime loans are for those who have had credit problems in the past, have a good job and are turning their credit around. He said less than 25 percent of subprime borrowers fit that mold.<BR/><BR/>"I don't think anyone with a 580 credit score should be buying a house," he said.<BR/><BR/>http://www.10news.com/money/<BR/>13497138/detail.htmlAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-31770380769304040852007-06-19T05:06:00.000+01:002007-06-19T05:06:00.000+01:00The chairwoman of the FDIC this week offered some ...The chairwoman of the FDIC this week offered some common-sense rules for preventing a repeat of the Lenders-Gone-Wild party that created the current subprime mortgage mess.<BR/><BR/>Had Sheila Bair's suggestions been in effect a few years ago, we would not be seeing record rates of foreclosure today or families by the tens of thousands facing eviction and ruin.<BR/><BR/>If Ms. Bair had her way, she would:<BR/><BR/>— Declare mortgages unaffordable if the monthly mortgage payment, including taxes and insurance, exceeds 50 percent of the family's income.<BR/><BR/><BR/>— Calculate that payment at what will be charged after any initial "teaser" rates expire and the interest rate jumps higher.<BR/><BR/>— Forbid so-called "liar loans" that are approved without verifying the borrower's income. Lots of borrowers, and some mortgage brokers, lied about borrowers' incomes in order to get loans approved.<BR/><BR/>— Put a two-year limit on penalties for prepaying loans. Such penalties have left people trapped with payments they can't afford but unable to refinance at better rates.<BR/><BR/>— Require taxes and insurance costs to be included in the mortgage payments, so that families aren't caught short when large bills arrive.<BR/><BR/>Unfortunately, Ms. Bair's Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation cannot act on her suggestions because mortgage regulation is the province of the Federal Reserve System.<BR/><BR/>The Fed snoozed while the subprime lending frenzy went wild early in this decade as housing prices shot through the roof. When the housing price bubble burst, the nightmares began for subprime borrowers and investors in subprime securities. <BR/><BR/>http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/<BR/>news/stories.nsf/<BR/>editorialcommentary/story/<BR/>7E83D408A6F38CA0862572FC00025D9B?<BR/>OpenDocumentAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-45335397364036060232007-06-19T04:58:00.000+01:002007-06-19T04:58:00.000+01:00Moody’s Downgrades 131 Subprime SecuritiesMoody’s ...Moody’s Downgrades 131 Subprime Securities<BR/><BR/>Moody’s announced late last week that it had taken negative action on 267 subprime securities, downgrading 131 in total. <BR/><BR/>Ratings on 131 securities were downgraded, of which 111 remain on review for possible further downgrade. An additional 136 securities had their ratings placed on review for possible downgrade. <BR/><BR/>Most of the securities affected had prior ratings of A and below. However, a small portion of the securities had ratings of Aa or Aaa. The Aaa-rated securities had their ratings downgraded by one notch.<BR/><BR/>http://www.housingwire.com/2007/<BR/>06/18/backtracking-moodys-<BR/>downgrades-131-subprime-<BR/>securities/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-89280952102882006942007-06-19T04:54:00.000+01:002007-06-19T04:54:00.000+01:0084 major U.S. lenders have "imploded"http://ml-imp...84 major U.S. lenders have "imploded"<BR/><BR/>http://ml-implode.com/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-10933635104578935922007-06-19T04:50:00.000+01:002007-06-19T04:50:00.000+01:00We would not regard US76c as a line in the sand.Ru...We would not regard US76c as a line in the sand.<BR/><BR/>Rumours the Reserve Bank intervened to lower the New Zealand dollar for a second time went unconfirmed today, but market participants seemed convinced despite the currency's short-lived dip.<BR/><BR/>The kiwi recovered almost all the half a US cent lost on rumours the central bank was selling NZ dollars, returning above US75.50c by late afternoon.<BR/><BR/>"Those rumours knocked the currency from the US75.45c area down towards (US75.00c), but I think it's also important to recognise that at the moment the global backdrop continues to be quite supportive for the kiwi," Bank of NZ chief currency dealer Mike Symonds said.<BR/><BR/>The Reserve Bank refused to comment on whether it had acted to bring the kiwi lower, or whether it had a policy about commenting on intervention. It had issued a statement accompanying its intervention a week earlier.<BR/><BR/>Market sources told NZPA the Reserve Bank had actively traded this morning to bring the NZ dollar down. The move was seen as pre-emptive to stop the currency moving through technical levels towards US76c.<BR/><BR/>Macquarie Bank senior economist Brian Redican said the Reserve Bank, which has a $7 billion warchest for such intervention, could act publicly by ringing up brokers and asking for quotes.<BR/><BR/>"Or they can try a more surreptitious approach where the market's trying to second guess whether the RBNZ's intervening and in what size, and those kinds of rumours can also be very effective," he said.<BR/><BR/>"The more uncertainty that the RBNZ can create in this type of environment, it means that day traders and fx traders will be a little bit more cautious about continuing to bid up the NZ dollar."<BR/><BR/>The Reserve Bank was unlikely to begin intervening regularly, but it was sending the message that times had changed and it was prepared to intervene on a periodic basis, he said.<BR/><BR/>"Certainly you don't want to overdo it unless you've got a very big financial windfall like China or Japan where you're so confident about taking on the markets. I think it is much more effective to do sporadic and quite infrequent interventions."<BR/><BR/>The prospect of Japanese interest rates remaining on hold for the foreseeable future, and weak US data, strong commodity prices and very strong appetite for carry trades -- which flow from low-yielding currencies such as the yen into the NZ dollar -- favoured the kiwi.<BR/><BR/>However, the spectre of further intervention would prevent the New Zealand dollar from outperforming other currencies as it has been, Mr Symonds said.<BR/><BR/>He expected the kiwi to remain stuck within a broader range of US74.50c to US76.50c, until global investor sentiment changed or domestic data became consistently weaker.<BR/><BR/>When the Reserve Bank intervened a week ago for the first time since the currency was floated, the kiwi had hit a post-float high above US76c.<BR/><BR/>"We would not regard US76c as a line in the sand -- the RBNZ will be wary of trying to stand in the way of larger global trends, and the pickup in NZD at the end of last week was clearly due to broad USD weakness," Westpac market strategist Michael Gordon said.<BR/><BR/>http://nz.news.yahoo.com/070618/<BR/>3/nfn.htmlAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-76275258546731889682007-06-19T04:41:00.000+01:002007-06-19T04:41:00.000+01:00The dollar weakened against most major currencies ...The dollar weakened against most major currencies on Monday, tracking a slide in U.S. bond yields, while the yen fell to near 4-1/2 year lows on fading expectations of higher Japanese interest rates.<BR/><BR/>The greenback extended losses after data on Friday showed underlying consumer price gains were smaller than expected last month. This sparked a bond market rally that pulled U.S. yields down from a five-year peak hit last week and pushed the euro above $1.34 for the first time since early June.<BR/><BR/>The yen fell to a fresh record low against the euro and dipped to multiyear troughs against sterling and the New Zealand dollar as investors ramped up carry trades that involve borrowing yen to buy higher-yield, higher-risk assets such as equities. <BR/><BR/>"The carry trade is being embraced, as are strong share prices nearly everywhere, and the correlation between a weakening yen and strong global equity markets continues to hold," said Dennis Gartman, independent analyst and author of the daily Gartman Letter.<BR/><BR/>Unlike the BOJ, the European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates further this year, and markets will look to a speech by ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet later on Monday for clues about the timing of future moves.<BR/><BR/>http://today.reuters.com/news/<BR/>articleinvesting.aspx?type=<BR/>hotStocksNews&storyID=2007-<BR/>06-18T135107Z_01_T360067_<BR/>RTRUKOC_0_US-MARKETS-FOREX.<BR/>xml&pageNumber=1&imageid=&cap<BR/>=&sz=13&WTModLoc=InvArt-C1-<BR/>ArticlePage1Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-59757348752167096752007-06-19T04:38:00.000+01:002007-06-19T04:38:00.000+01:00Greed & Fear in the bond market, the yen carry tra...Greed & Fear in the bond market, the yen carry trade and Japan<BR/><BR/>The US 10-year Treasury bond yield has now broken out of a 26-year trendline. If the move is sustained, that must - sooner or later - be very bad news for Wall Street-correlated equities as well as credit spreads, says CLSA’s Christopher Wood in the latest issue the bank’s (subscriber) newsletter, Greed & Fear.<BR/><BR/>“The bigger the spike in US bond yields, the more ultimately deflationary it will be due to the sheer scale of leverage in the system”, says Mr Wood. In the meantime, one explanation for the bond move is a growing focus on the double whammy posed by both rising energy and rising food prices, he notes. This has the potential, if sustained, to cause the Fed formally to shift its “inflation” target away from the “core” concept in response to growing political pressures. “Such a move would be very bad news indeed”, he says, noting that imported inflation pressures also seem to be growing in the US.<BR/><BR/>But, he says, there is one place that rising bond yields should prove rather more bullish for equities, both from a relative return and an absolute-return basis: Japan. Greed & Fear has been checking out the mood in Tokyo, “the world’s serial underperformer from a relative-return standpoint in the recent past, even if the Topix index has only essentially marked time since the monster up-move in the second half of 2005″. From the standpoint of the international investor, the relative underperformance has been further undermined by the chronic weakness of the yen, says Mr Wood.<BR/><BR/>The comparisons are stark: “Thus, the Topix has risen by only 2.1 per cent in dollar terms since the beginning of 2006, while the MSCI AC World Index and the MSCI Europe index have risen by 28 per cent and 40 over the same period<BR/><BR/>If the Bank of Japan harbours a genuine desire to raise rates [despite political opposition], “the political cover to do so has of late increased dramatically”, notes Mr Wood. As the consensus is “no longer looking for interest-rate cuts in America this year”, this makes it easier for the BoJ to resume tightening again, as does the recent increase in bond yields globally including in Japan, he reasons.<BR/><BR/>The central bank is concerned that if it does not get on with normalising rates, “it may soon be forced to do so by intensifying foreign pressure”, says Mr Wood. “The BoJ is increasingly uncomfortable with the escalating capital outflows given that the Japanese retail investor forms a key part of the yen carry trade. Indeed with further interest-rate hikes expected elsewhere, the risk is that the capital outflow turns into a tsunami if the BoJ remains on hold.”<BR/><BR/>The conclusion? Investors should assume that the BoJ will raise rates this summer and probably again by the end of this year unless there is some global external shock. Greed & Fear, he says, is of the view that the Japanese bank stocks are only likely to react fully to the tightening when it actually occurs. It is now also time to sell or at least underweight the property stocks.<BR/><BR/>http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/<BR/>2007/06/15/5229/greed-fear-in-<BR/>the-bond-market-the-yen-carry-<BR/>trade-and-japan/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-42139307558439480372007-06-18T23:48:00.000+01:002007-06-18T23:48:00.000+01:00LOWEST FOOD SUPPLIES IN 50 OR 100 YEARS:GLOBAL FOO...LOWEST FOOD SUPPLIES IN 50 OR 100 YEARS:<BR/>GLOBAL FOOD CRISIS EMERGING<BR/><BR/>SASKATOON, Sask.—Today, the United States Department of Agriculture<BR/>(USDA) released its first projections of world grain supply and<BR/>demand for the coming crop year: 2007/08. USDA predicts supplies will<BR/>plunge to a 53-day equivalent—their lowest level in the 47-year<BR/>period for which data exists.Roccmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13941353492023923157noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-2283709842073730822007-06-18T23:15:00.000+01:002007-06-18T23:15:00.000+01:00http://tinyurl.com/ysw8odBloomberg: U.S. Homebuild...http://tinyurl.com/ysw8od<BR/><BR/>Bloomberg: U.S. Homebuilder Confidence Declines to 16-Year Low (since 1991)<BR/><BR/>The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo index of sentiment declined to 28 this month from 30 in May, the Washington-based association said today. Readings below 50 mean most respondents view conditions as poor. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News forecast the gauge to stay unchanged this month<BR/><BR/>[Wow. Only 28/100. Sounds like a Pheonix public school student average.]<BR/><BR/>``There will be continuing declines in home building through the second half'' of this year, said Robert Mellman, an economist at JPMorgan Chase Corp. in New York. ``If rates hadn't gone up, we would have expected it would have stabilized. We've put off the stabilization in housing until early next year.''<BR/><BR/>[Guess that means it will "stabilize" at something like -8% a year?]<BR/><BR/>Thirty-year mortgage rates at the end of May averaged 6.37 percent, rising further to an average 6.74 percent at the end of last week, according to Freddie Mac, the second-largest purchaser of U.S. mortgages.<BR/><BR/>[Reset, anyone?]<BR/><BR/>The National Association of Realtors on June 6 lowered its forecasts for home construction and sales for at least a fourth time this year, saying stricter lending standards and a squeeze on subprime lending are making homes less affordable.<BR/><BR/>[Lowered estimates 4 times in 6 months. Nice work guys. Here's some advice from Rudy Guiliani - underpromise, overdeliver.]<BR/><BR/>JPMorgan Chase correctly forecast the drop in the homebuilding index. The bank's economists now project residential construction will fall at a 7.5 percent annual rate in the second half, compared with a previous forecast of a 2.5 percent drop.<BR/><BR/>[Ditto for you guys. Read HP.]gregorywhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13900940292043774887noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-65381119398539707422007-06-18T22:12:00.000+01:002007-06-18T22:12:00.000+01:00YEAH BUT He's only pulling in a total of 2800 a mo...YEAH BUT He's only pulling in a total of 2800 a month!!! Which barely covers his mortgage + PITI let alone everything else...SERIOUSLY you are on crack 1st ANON CLUE IT IN....<BR/><BR/>You must be a realtor or something?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-32935127036649582152007-06-18T20:08:00.000+01:002007-06-18T20:08:00.000+01:00"Let me clue you in:"Actually, no, is doesn't make..."Let me clue you in:"<BR/><BR/>Actually, no, is doesn't make sense now...lol.. <BR/><BR/>Let me clue you in...<BR/><BR/>How about car insurance @$100/mo?<BR/><BR/>What about home owners insurance, pmi, capex (boiler,plumbing,etc-something breaks every year -you know it), home owner's association? Think my $2800 is more accurate- more a minimum...<BR/><BR/>Can't get these #s to work for me...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-52432895237229811072007-06-18T18:54:00.000+01:002007-06-18T18:54:00.000+01:00http://tinyurl.com/25kafuBwahaha!!http://tinyurl.com/25kafu<BR/><BR/>Bwahaha!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-49971548878350411112007-06-18T16:27:00.000+01:002007-06-18T16:27:00.000+01:00Think this can't happen again...Think again.http:/...Think this can't happen again...<BR/><BR/>Think again.<BR/><BR/>http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=8450558837192717138Roccmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13941353492023923157noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-50759397062387603582007-06-18T16:15:00.000+01:002007-06-18T16:15:00.000+01:00CNBC has a new series: "American Greed: How far so...CNBC has a new series: "American Greed: How far some will go to become rich."<BR/><BR/>Casey, if you're reading this, is the first episode all about you?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-62332463072343604782007-06-18T15:35:00.000+01:002007-06-18T15:35:00.000+01:00Not really you clown. Taxes are way more than 20% ...Not really you clown. Taxes are way more than 20% on 50k. He's MAYBE taking home 2800-3000 MAX after 401k, Health Care Etc. leaving your DUDE with 300 dollars MAX in extra non essentials income. NOT alot of extra cash around...Oh, and he doesn't make it back from the IRS until MAY. So he is floating your extra 300$ a month. making him net cash negative on a monthly basis. which probably means he's using Consumer Debt to prop himself up and go on that summer fishing trip with his buddies.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-64998061724324183462007-06-18T14:28:00.000+01:002007-06-18T14:28:00.000+01:00Mix said... I don't get it.The average guy has a j...Mix said... <BR/>I don't get it.<BR/><BR/>The average guy has a job @ $50K. 50K/12*.8(estimated taxes of 20% give or take)=$3,300 post tax monthly take home... <BR/><BR/>Ohhhkay..so you figure if he 'owns' a '$400K' house, his monthly payment should be somewhere in the neighborhood of -$2,800. And his SUV payment, and gas bill to get to his job are say, around -$500...which, coincidentally is the same as his post tax earnings. <BR/><BR/>Now if these are assumptions are right (and they might not be, someone please correct me)- how does this guy eat? pay for clothing? pay his utilities, student loans, kids bills, furniture, get his haircut?<BR/><BR/>I'm a lil confused on the math here....Ideas? <BR/><BR/>June 18, 2007 5:40 AM <BR/><BR/><BR/>Let me clue you in:<BR/><BR/>$400K home with $0 down at 6% is $2400 not $2800. Of that he gets about $350 back in taxes, meaning his net cost is $1950.<BR/><BR/>You can lease an SUV for $250 a month. Assume a 20 miles commute each way that's 40 miles per day or 1000 miles a month @ 15MPG and $3 gas comes out to $450 a month.<BR/><BR/>Total cost for home and car is $2400, leaving $900 for other things.<BR/><BR/>A single guy can eat for $300 a month easy. $600 left over for whatever else.<BR/><BR/>Makes sense now?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-86837483683862133472007-06-18T13:28:00.000+01:002007-06-18T13:28:00.000+01:00"How true but who else is saying it, in fact who e..."How true but who else is saying it, in fact who else cares? "<BR/><BR/>Big deal! So what? He is still pro-war and pro-open-borders, and therefore unfit to be president.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-35443784140126264842007-06-18T13:27:00.000+01:002007-06-18T13:27:00.000+01:00Keith,Check out the latest Wall Street Journal (Ju...Keith,<BR/><BR/>Check out the latest Wall Street Journal (June 18th, C1, "Ills Deepen in Subprime-Bond Arena")<BR/><BR/>Moody's finally destroyed ratings on all the subprime toxic waste. This might finally be game, set, and match.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-78837749545073060052007-06-18T10:52:00.000+01:002007-06-18T10:52:00.000+01:00Sorry Keith, but I still like that McCain for reas...Sorry Keith, but I still like that McCain for reasons like this from the NY Times today:<BR/><BR/>As McCain races to play catch-up with his Republican presidential primary rivals he is only reminding military companies and lobbyists why they have never liked him. <B>“Defense contractors are more concerned with winning the next contract than performing on the current one,”</B> he charged at a recent campaign stop.<BR/><BR/>How true but who else is saying it, in fact who else cares?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-83833646063090699632007-06-18T06:40:00.000+01:002007-06-18T06:40:00.000+01:00I don't get it.The average guy has a job @ $50K. 5...I don't get it.<BR/><BR/>The average guy has a job @ $50K. 50K/12*.8(estimated taxes of 20% give or take)=$3,300 post tax monthly take home... <BR/><BR/>Ohhhkay..so you figure if he 'owns' a '$400K' house, his monthly payment should be somewhere in the neighborhood of -$2,800. And his SUV payment, and gas bill to get to his job are say, around -$500...which, coincidentally is the same as his post tax earnings. <BR/><BR/>Now if these are assumptions are right (and they might not be, someone please correct me)- how does this guy eat? pay for clothing? pay his utilities, student loans, kids bills, furniture, get his haircut?<BR/><BR/>I'm a lil confused on the math here....Ideas?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com