tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post4411744907435573654..comments2023-12-30T10:06:37.450+00:00Comments on HousingPANIC - The Housing Bubble Blog with an Attitude Problem, 2005 - 2008: Alt-A "Liar's Loan" mortgage king IndyMac reports today. Three words you may or may not hear: Mark to Marketbloggerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06585266242070350399noreply@blogger.comBlogger39125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-9422673638256243832007-08-01T20:28:00.000+01:002007-08-01T20:28:00.000+01:00IMB is down pretty significantly today. I guess th...IMB is down pretty significantly today. I guess the real beef in the 10Q took a while to sink in.<BR/><BR/>There haven't been much good news in the ALT-A land today either. Moody's downgrades, etc. Seems to have hit all of the lenders, but particularly IMB.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-78580620982662603432007-08-01T01:08:00.000+01:002007-08-01T01:08:00.000+01:00Listen from min 12:00 to 12:10 he start to say it ...Listen from min 12:00 to 12:10 he start to say it offers a lot of protection from mark to market and changes to markets. He wants to tell the truth but something is keeping him from doing it. What could that thing be?burn baby burnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01305528692068486872noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-87327990818594715162007-07-31T19:52:00.000+01:002007-07-31T19:52:00.000+01:00FYI, IMB realtime now at $22, only up 1.5%, was up...FYI, IMB realtime now at $22, only up 1.5%, was up over 20% at the high. AHM opened after 1.75 days halted and it down 90%. If you bought a put option on Friday you could have made 700-900% in 2 business days. If you are a retard and bought a call option, you've lost 80-99% in 2 days :-)Trevor Cordeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14406735107819160262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-79726449802269909732007-07-31T19:51:00.000+01:002007-07-31T19:51:00.000+01:00Low or no documentation loans represented 81 perce...Low or no documentation loans represented 81 percent of all Alt-A purchase loans in 2006, up from 64 percent in 2004. <BR/>--<BR/><BR/>Low or no doc = liar. Now why would some one lie about how much money they make? <BR/><BR/>Bec they could not afford the house but still bought the b.s. about 20% up each year!stuckinthecityhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04103831140035179103noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-86316867069827234572007-07-31T19:49:00.000+01:002007-07-31T19:49:00.000+01:00where are the auditors? It really doesn't matter w...where are the auditors? It really doesn't matter what the CEO thinks the cancer is worth - WHAT MATTERS WHAT THE F*CKING MARKET THINKS THEY'RE WORTH. Geeze, how dense are some people? Kinda like homedebtors thinking their home is worth X, when the market is telling them the home is worth 1/2 of X.<BR/>--<BR/><BR/>They can't mark it to the market bec they have no clue WHERE the market IS! This thing is so bad, and everyone has just shut their eyes screaming, "IS IT OVER YET?!" <BR/><BR/>We won't know all that well, until all the ARMs pop go to auction, get passed over then sit with the bank for a long time. then the banks will just say f-it and dump. It's on them.stuckinthecityhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04103831140035179103noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-3229389189267206182007-07-31T19:34:00.000+01:002007-07-31T19:34:00.000+01:00AHM Down 87%!AHM Down 87%!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-5898712612075232632007-07-31T18:53:00.000+01:002007-07-31T18:53:00.000+01:00Keith,You just don't get it!-Jeff SkillingKeith,<BR/><BR/>You just don't get it!<BR/><BR/>-Jeff SkillingAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-10330443477236658432007-07-31T18:28:00.000+01:002007-07-31T18:28:00.000+01:00Wow, what crazy trading today. Not for the faint ...Wow, what crazy trading today. Not for the faint hearted<BR/><BR/>I got out before that short sqeeze, and I'm guessing this stock trades even on the day<BR/><BR/>Man, it's easy to manipulate stocks for the big boys. Someone pumped it and dumped, no doubt, and is now laughingbloggerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06585266242070350399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-460777697452870982007-07-31T18:21:00.000+01:002007-07-31T18:21:00.000+01:00Oh forget it, short squeeze is over. Realtime quo...Oh forget it, short squeeze is over. Realtime quote is only up 5.5% now and the OOTM long-date puts never got much below yesterday's price. The only way to have won here was to put a lowball limit order in early and wait for the little spike for an auto-fill. Hope none of you IMB shorters actually sold puts into that 15% suckers rally!Trevor Cordeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14406735107819160262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-63355253008501987532007-07-31T18:20:00.000+01:002007-07-31T18:20:00.000+01:00As the unofficial understatement of the day, I wou...As the unofficial understatement of the day, I would like to claim IMB stock volatility for the day as "high".Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-45335666665262384452007-07-31T18:12:00.000+01:002007-07-31T18:12:00.000+01:00Anon, that text that I quoted was (obviously) from...Anon, that text that I quoted was (obviously) from the 10-Q, which you'll find from the Indymac website.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-83231900654002641172007-07-31T18:10:00.000+01:002007-07-31T18:10:00.000+01:00Why are the Jan 2009 OOTM puts selling for MORE th...Why are the Jan 2009 OOTM puts selling for MORE than close of yesterday on a day when the stock is up 10-15%??? Even with the increased volatility, the puts should be lower on such a huge up day. Not to mention, the options usually command a huge premium the day *before* the earnings and return to earth *after* the earnings. I hope this rally lasts the rest of the day and levels out so the puts become a bargain.<BR/><BR/>I've seen this type of behaviour in the housing stocks where they pump up for zero reason just before they are about to tank again big time (few days to couple of weeks).Trevor Cordeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14406735107819160262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-62009421888120528862007-07-31T18:05:00.000+01:002007-07-31T18:05:00.000+01:00PLACE YOUR BETS!PLACE YOUR BETS!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-79705961935207657332007-07-31T18:04:00.000+01:002007-07-31T18:04:00.000+01:00Holy crap... IMB is irrational as hell today. 16%...Holy crap... IMB is irrational as hell today. 16% after that report and all the other MB's are down 8%+? I wasn't even looking to short the MB's (happy with the HB's) but I'm seriously tempted to buy some 2009 LEAPS on IMB today.Trevor Cordeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14406735107819160262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-10695952979170834402007-07-31T18:01:00.000+01:002007-07-31T18:01:00.000+01:00thanks, Finn, where can i see that report? edgar?...thanks, Finn, where can i see that report? edgar?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-4618772878069692542007-07-31T17:58:00.000+01:002007-07-31T17:58:00.000+01:00HOLY CRAP that's one heck of a short squeeze going...HOLY CRAP that's one heck of a short squeeze going on right now.<BR/><BR/>This is why shorting stocks or puts is gambling - only for fun and only money that you'd otherwise just as well take to the craps table<BR/><BR/>Meanwhile, I'm looking to get back in (short)!<BR/><BR/>Wow.bloggerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06585266242070350399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-83812931511742839232007-07-31T17:56:00.000+01:002007-07-31T17:56:00.000+01:00CLASSIC SHORT SQUEEZE TODAYCLASSIC SHORT SQUEEZE TODAYAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-2006319294279895012007-07-31T17:51:00.000+01:002007-07-31T17:51:00.000+01:00Somebody asked for the amount of neg am option arm...Somebody asked for the amount of neg am option arm interest amounts. From the report:<BR/><BR/><I> Included in our loans held for investment portfolio at June 30, 2007 were $1.0 billion in pay option ARM loans,<BR/>or 22% of the portfolio, as compared to $1.3 billion, or 24% of the portfolio, at June 30, 2006 and $1.2 billion, or<BR/>18% of the portfolio, at December 31, 2006. As of June 30, 2007, approximately 88% (based on loan count) of our<BR/>pay option ARM loans had negatively amortized, resulting in an increase of $38.6 million to their original loan<BR/>balance. This is an increase from 74% and 83% at June 30, 2006 and December 31, 2006, respectively. The net<BR/>increase in unpaid principal balance due to negative amortization was $4.8 million and $11.8 million for the three<BR/>and six months ended June 30, 2007, respectively, which approximated the deferred interest recognized for the<BR/>periods. The original weighted average loan-to-value on our pay option ARM loans was 73%, while the estimated<BR/>current LTV is 67%, calculated based on the Office of the Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight House Price Index<BR/>Metropolitan Statistical Areas data on a loan level basis. The decline in the current loan-to-value was due to<BR/>estimated appreciation of the underlying property values.<BR/></I><BR/><BR/>My conclusions: <BR/>-The amount of option arms is quite big, but they are reducing it, which is wise.<BR/>-The amount of loans that have negatively amortized is rather high and rising, which is bad<BR/>-The dollar amount of negative amortization seems to be very low, considering the total amount of option arm loans and the number of loans that have negatively amortized<BR/>-The dollar amount of neg am for the quarter seems rather low and insignificant considering their earnings, to the point that it surprises me a lot - someone please correct if I read it wrong<BR/>-Assuming the amount of negative amortization so far is as low as it seems, there won't be a significant amount of loans that are likely to hit the LTV limits any time soon<BR/>-The fact that they claim that the LTV is going down thanks to the increases in the values of underlying properties is rather, um, "interesting". Lets just say that I'm a bit skeptical about the relevance of the "Office of the Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight House Price Index" in light of the recent case-shiller report..<BR/><BR/>All in all, the big thing considering Indymac is the rise in the amount of non-performing loans. Which was to be expected, as can be seen from the markets.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-64437769278888002882007-07-31T17:46:00.000+01:002007-07-31T17:46:00.000+01:00I've gotta say, great presentation by the CEO - ve...I've gotta say, great presentation by the CEO - very cocky, very confident. Sure, his stock has collapsed and his business model is kaput, and they haven't marked their cancer to market, and they pulled guidance, but if you listened to that call IndyMac is the next google, and business is great.<BR/><BR/>He'd be a good NAR or White House spokesman. You want to believe the guy.<BR/><BR/>I don't.<BR/><BR/>But investors today do. Note they only took 3 or 4 questions. Not one tough one. <BR/><BR/>It'll be interesting how this story plays out. Anyone think "liar's loans" are going to get paid back - buy IMB. <BR/><BR/>I covered my puts today, 70% gain, happy. Might buy back in later.bloggerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06585266242070350399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-31305117812800386022007-07-31T17:34:00.000+01:002007-07-31T17:34:00.000+01:00Glad I bought the Jan08 puts. Might buy some more...Glad I bought the Jan08 puts. Might buy some more as IMB is up over 4 bucks right now!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-745197797106587452007-07-31T17:08:00.000+01:002007-07-31T17:08:00.000+01:00sheesh. IMB up $1.50when will they ever learn... o...sheesh. IMB up $1.50<BR/><BR/>when will they ever learn... oh well, my Oct puts have plenty of time left.42https://www.blogger.com/profile/13859128086869479774noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-88600031908322829982007-07-31T16:58:00.000+01:002007-07-31T16:58:00.000+01:00How much of Indymac's reported "profits" for the q...How much of Indymac's reported "profits" for the quarter are due to unrealized gains from unpaid NegAmOptARM interest?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-71803096176197617702007-07-31T16:42:00.000+01:002007-07-31T16:42:00.000+01:00Doesn't look like a free fall anymore, now over 5%...Doesn't look like a free fall anymore, now over 5% up. The increase in non-performing loans and the degradation of the ratio of allowance for loan losses to non-performing loans held for investment is staggering.<BR/><BR/>Obviously, the market was expecting something even worse than this.<BR/><BR/>Expecting IMB to "mark to market" is silly. They won't. They'll close their eyes and let the turd stink as long as they can. Then they'll come up with an "Oops - we just didn't see it coming".Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-52370864149388551672007-07-31T16:01:00.000+01:002007-07-31T16:01:00.000+01:00Wild day IMB is in freefall right nowWild day IMB is in freefall right nowAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-59584394889464159822007-07-31T14:39:00.000+01:002007-07-31T14:39:00.000+01:00Yes, looks like IndyMac management took the "wait ...Yes, looks like IndyMac management took the "wait 'em out", "cross the fingers' and "hide the truth" method.<BR/><BR/>No surprises - par for the course with IndyMac.<BR/><BR/>But the truth (eventually) will come out. And that truth is that the market value of the loans they're holding on their books is SIGNIFICANTLY below the value on their books.<BR/><BR/>Meanwhile, you have to wonder about the 21 year old kids probably auditing them. Doesn't help that their CFO came from their auditor - how's that for a cozy quid pro quo?<BR/><BR/>Conference call should be fun. Wonder if they'd let HP ask a question?<BR/><BR/>Mark to Market?bloggerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06585266242070350399noreply@blogger.com