tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post2087187444892512754..comments2024-01-15T12:16:41.302+00:00Comments on HousingPANIC - The Housing Bubble Blog with an Attitude Problem, 2005 - 2008: HousingPANIC Stupid Question of the Daybloggerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06585266242070350399noreply@blogger.comBlogger100125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-4305336478424048552008-06-04T06:39:00.000+01:002008-06-04T06:39:00.000+01:00Ya gotta wonder though. If the main growth in oil ...Ya gotta wonder though. If the main growth in oil consumption is developing countries and they get their money to buy oil presumably from Americans buying sh-- they don't need. Now the US is in recession. Where does that leave these countries?<BR/><BR/>Long term yes oil is going to become scarcer but at $100+ a barrel (or $200+) it is going to break a lot of economies.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-9716942930663785682008-06-03T20:51:00.000+01:002008-06-03T20:51:00.000+01:00if one tenth of the prospective science were real ...if one tenth of the prospective science were real and come true...i would live till 500 years and not be concerned about not getting more.........................Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-86063473330389419292008-06-03T20:25:00.000+01:002008-06-03T20:25:00.000+01:00its a big scam to make you think 2.00 buck a gallo...its a big scam to make you think 2.00 buck a gallon is cheap.......................Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-59067546583995182532008-06-03T19:05:00.000+01:002008-06-03T19:05:00.000+01:00IDIOTS!!!!! Oil MAY go down, but when the Chinese ...IDIOTS!!!!! Oil MAY go down, but when the Chinese uncouple their currency from the US dollar, it will allow over ONE BILLION people access to cheap oil. In turn this WILL drive the costs up here in America as Shiff and other predict another 40-50% drop in dollar value. <BR/><BR/>There are over ONE BILLION chinks and dot heads who are salivating at the idea of drag racing and sunday cruising - do not think for one second that this massive enrush of demand will not drive the prices up!!!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-45989137752565564532008-06-02T16:37:00.000+01:002008-06-02T16:37:00.000+01:00"So, are you telling me that you don't believe in ..."So, are you telling me that you don't believe in Multiple Regression Analysis or data mining? Pleazzzz..."<BR/><BR/>I use Regression Analysis and data mining in my work and trading on the side all the time. However, I'm keenly aware that regression analysis only works if the observer/participants' action has no effect on the phenomenom/market-place. For example, the Black-Scholtz model behind LTCM, and the loan performance analysis in recent years were both thoroughly back-tested for data going back decades. Yet, they failed miserably because actions by the artitrargers/decision-makers using those models fundamentally changed the market place.<BR/><BR/>At the college admission office, the decision of the administion officers is literally 100% of the market volume. There is other transaction or counter party. Following an "ideal candidate" model is guaranteed to get a student body that is far different from the ones that constituted the back test data to begin with . . . so projecting anything from that data would be simply invalid. <BR/><BR/>In the real world and real market place, observer/action- dependent "uncertainty" (akin to Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle in Quantum Physics) is a common occurence. The strict Newtonian/Cartesian clockwork simply won't work in the long run.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-32968874548269511562008-06-02T08:41:00.000+01:002008-06-02T08:41:00.000+01:00There is no "ideal" match of candidates and colleg...<I>There is no "ideal" match of candidates and colleges; the matching process itself will influence the institutional environment: monolithic "ideal" candidates fitting a specific set of criteria is not a good insititutional environment.</I><BR/><BR/>So, are you telling me that you don't believe in Multiple Regression Analysis or data mining? Pleazzzz...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-55165948301959497942008-06-02T03:58:00.000+01:002008-06-02T03:58:00.000+01:00I don't believe in the current peak oil craze. Whi...I don't believe in the current peak oil craze. While I'm not entirely convinced of the abiotic oil theory, I'm not sure if we are running out of oil yet. The scientific evidence isn't very strong if you ask me, and as far as energy goes, we certainly aren't running out of that. Fossil fuels furthermore aren't a good source of energy. Also, burning coal as a power source is much worse than nuclear fission, and biofuels can be as destructive as coal is. I can't imagine then making wood burning cars...or a biodiesel space shuttle.<BR/><BR/>I think the PO movement is tough talk. Suburban cowboys who think they can live off the fat of the land. Even a majority of your bona-fide survivalists have a very hard time out in nature, and most of the survivalist movement is loony tunes to begin with.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-65682648954739634722008-06-01T22:33:00.000+01:002008-06-01T22:33:00.000+01:00Anon 8:31,Your examples illustrated my point. Kur...Anon 8:31,<BR/><BR/>Your examples illustrated my point. Kurtzweil is bright-eyed engineer in search of "ideal" solutions; he doesn't quite understand that market place is a process: mistakes and corrections are part and parcel of the deal, not some intelligent design by a super smart guy. There is no "ideal" match of candidates and colleges; the matching process itself will influence the institutional environment: monolithic "ideal" candidates fitting a specific set of criteria is not a good insititutional environment. There is no ideal hedge trading method either. What the heck was Kurtzweil's hedge fund doing from 1999 to 2006 before it started trading? 1999 was a great time for hedge funds to start; 2006 was a terrible time to start trading as a hedge fund as the whole hedge fund industry went into a blood bath in 2007 and 2008.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-73884303419352092972008-06-01T22:27:00.000+01:002008-06-01T22:27:00.000+01:00Anon 8:16,I'm a big believer in creative destructi...Anon 8:16,<BR/><BR/>I'm a big believer in creative destruction. However, let's not get too carried away by "the next big thing." Desert solar generation requires a whole new electricity distribution network; this time, with trunk lines starting from the no-man's land back to the northeast instead of the other way around with the previous hydro-power. The distribution capacity will also have be significantly greater is electricity has to displace gasoline and diesel. We are not talking about fiberoptics where a new generation of faster switches can dramaticly increase capaicty. It takes good old fashioned metal conductors to carry electricity. Have you priced a mile long two inch thick pure copper or pure silver wire trunk line lately? It's not cheap. Yes, technology has a price deflating effect, and so does imports; however, the domestic monetary authority has proven itself quite capable of causing price inflation and make working people's lives miserable despite technology and import supply improvements.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-30921808015987907902008-06-01T18:31:00.000+01:002008-06-01T18:31:00.000+01:00First, Oil is going to drop just enough to bankrup...First, Oil is going to drop just enough to bankrupt Dubai and cause more fighting in Iraq.<BR/><BR/>After that, it is going to go to the stratosphere to stay. Bankrupting the maxed out American snapper turtle.<BR/><BR/>Nobody is safe, everyone is screwed, the market will make sure of that.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-54354129279285149822008-06-01T16:46:00.000+01:002008-06-01T16:46:00.000+01:001) Trains - As far as shipping commodities, I've r...1) Trains - As far as shipping commodities, I've read where they are exponentially more efficient than semi-trucks.<BR/>2) Electric cars - I am an investor of Dynegy and read the the postings of some very smart power generator folks and they say generating plants can not reduce their output during the night, which makes it the perfect time to juice up the ole electric car, with very little additional costs.<BR/><BR/>I think we Yanks can decrease our gasoline usage by 50% by planning our trips wisely and walking a bit more, which would upset Andrew, as there would be less fat on us to sizzle in the charcoal pit.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-47988770269296463062008-06-01T08:31:00.000+01:002008-06-01T08:31:00.000+01:00While Kurzweil was instrumental in inventing some ...<I>While Kurzweil was instrumental in inventing some of the OCR and speech recognition software and devices, his futurist predictions mark him as a typical statist engineer, who doesn't understand how the market place and human interaction work.</I><BR/><BR/>I disagree; here's why:<BR/><BR/><B>In 1968, during Kurzweil's sophomore year at MIT, Kurzweil started a company that used a computer program to match high school students with colleges. The program, called the Select College Consulting Program, was designed by him and compared thousands of different criteria about each college with questionnaire answers submitted by each student applicant. When he was 20, he sold the company to Harcourt, Brace & World for $100,000 (roughly $500,000 in 2006 dollars) plus royalties.[citation needed] He earned a BS in Computer Science and Literature in 1970 from MIT.<BR/><BR/>In 1999, Kurzweil created a hedge fund called "FatKat" (Financial Accelerating Transactions from Kurzweil Adaptive Technologies), which began trading in 2006. He has stated that the ultimate aim is to improve the performance of FatKat's A.I. investment software program, enhancing its ability to recognize patterns in "currency fluctuations and stock-ownership trends."</B>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-71783907885192285292008-06-01T08:16:00.000+01:002008-06-01T08:16:00.000+01:00You people are bizarre. We have a ton of ongoing i...You people are bizarre. We have a ton of ongoing innovative projects to mine half of American deserts with solar panels, that will power the entire country in less than 10 years, and you keep talking about Peak Oil and how oil prices will continue to shoot up forever. And I'm not even considering all the other alternative energy technologies. That's the problem with America, idiots never read about the science being developed or applied as we speak. Watch for the price of oil to start declining after Bush/Cheney are out. We're going through exciting times in America, another one in which revolutionary solutions are being demanded. Everything is collapsing around us for a reason: to come up with solutions.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-11353927993569140272008-06-01T05:26:00.000+01:002008-06-01T05:26:00.000+01:00Senate votes to not explore the ANWR, and Maxine W...Senate votes to not explore the ANWR, and Maxine Waters threatens to take over companies and have the gubbermint run them.<BR/><BR/>Where is Lee Harvey Oswald when you need him???Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-17090987392379703742008-05-31T21:32:00.000+01:002008-05-31T21:32:00.000+01:00hb slacker,"I'll win dumbass because I'll sue you"...hb slacker,<BR/><BR/>"I'll win dumbass because I'll sue you"<BR/><BR/>Well, I wouldn't make too much noise about it ahead of time. Sueing someone successfullly requires at least two things:<BR/><BR/>(1) that you are alive after the accident;<BR/><BR/>(2) that you do not suffer amnesia or blackout, so that the police report is not entirely written according to the guy in the Hummer.<BR/><BR/>Both conditions are somewhat dependent on how much braking the Hummer driver applies before impact. In some parts of the world, drivers are known for backing up and running over their pedestrian victims intentionally to kill them just so that there wouldn't be a live witness to offer a differing account of what happened. Such is the sad reality of human nature :-(Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-66923242131216387662008-05-31T15:39:00.000+01:002008-05-31T15:39:00.000+01:00Anonymous HB Slacker said... if i ran into you...Anonymous HB Slacker said...<BR/><BR/> if i ran into your prius with my hummer, who would win?<BR/><BR/> I'll win dumbass because I'll sue you<BR/><BR/> May 31, 2008 7:48 AM<<<<BR/><BR/>what if i ran over your lawyer with my hummer?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-71759988676430798522008-05-31T15:38:00.000+01:002008-05-31T15:38:00.000+01:00Anonymous Anonymous said... After the 2 oilmen...Anonymous Anonymous said...<BR/><BR/> After the 2 oilmen you elected TWICE get out of the White House, oil prices will collapse. Watch in November how oil prices will be nosediving.<BR/><BR/> May 31, 2008 1:27 AM<<<<BR/><BR/>keep dreaming. all discussion of oil in a speculative bubble and other such nonsense is a bit premature. hear me and hear me good. the oil per barrel price will be closing in on $200/barrel, just like the analyst are predicting. oil is a commodity. right now it is in correction. but time and time again, experts warn that the oil prices will continue to go up. one day soon, we will look back on 130/barrel oil and wish it was that cheap again. we complain about 4.00/gallon gas. heck how much is it in england? case closed. the united states does not have public transportation or electric trains. we are in deep doo doo. so many here commute to work. this will end. and so will the concept of large trucks. all of our trucks will soon look like japanese commercial trucks...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-62610647117732758582008-05-31T15:04:00.000+01:002008-05-31T15:04:00.000+01:00The perfect solution to the old crisis:The America...The perfect solution to the old crisis:<BR/><BR/>The Americano should start farm-raising a whole darn lot of the good old snapper turtle. The Americano will then be ensured of a steady supply of natural food from now until the fat-ass Americano cow comes home !!!<BR/><BR/>Imagine this: What is better than a grilled snapper turtle being skewered from mouth to ass on a green Chinese bamboo stick all sizzling, sputtering, roasting nicely, juices dripping, fat popping over a bed of white hot charcoal grill ???<BR/><BR/>### Furthermore:<BR/>Gasoline is now at its lowest level in the history of the Americano. It is only $135.00 a barrel of oil and it will head to $200 Americano dollar currency in a blink. Cheap and ready to be burned in a shiny, big-ass monster freaking Ford 350 truck, ain't it ?<BR/><BR/>So, tell me, does the average Americano, Joe6Pack and JaneZinfandel take it enough in the rear orifice yet by the forceful penetration of "Little Boy" + "Fat Man", or do you want more "Enter The Dragon" ?<BR/><BR/>Americano = Being Entered By The Dragon up the Kazook<BR/>"BORKAFATTY" AKA The Pig is swallowing, roosting, snouting, chomping at the maggot feed trough.<BR/><BR/>Heeeee... Haaaaa... Arrrrr...<BR/><BR/>And all of you retards, ass-head that voted for SHRUB and worshipped his ASS over the last 8 years, guess what, the chicken are coming home to roost on your head-ass. The ancient snapper turtle probably have more brain cell than you and your children combined together. Are you sorry yet ? Do you feel ashamed and stupid about your shallow thinking, narrow-minded love and blind, ignorant worshipping for DUBYA ? Do you, do you, do you ???AndrewHachttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05114474456963405679noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-79182884209706823932008-05-31T07:48:00.000+01:002008-05-31T07:48:00.000+01:00if i ran into your prius with my hummer, who would...if i ran into your prius with my hummer, who would win?<BR/><BR/>I'll win dumbass because I'll sue youAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-8084857518451908502008-05-31T06:59:00.000+01:002008-05-31T06:59:00.000+01:00Does anyone remember invention? We will eventually...Does anyone remember invention? We will eventually move away from oil and toward renewable energy,nuclear, etc. Electric cars will have the range and performance comparable to today's gas engines. The suburbs will continue to exist.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-25587968962048053032008-05-31T06:52:00.000+01:002008-05-31T06:52:00.000+01:00While Kurzweil was instrumental in inventing some ...While Kurzweil was instrumental in inventing some of the OCR and speech recognition software and devices, his futurist predictions mark him as a typical statist engineer, who doesn't understand how the market place and human interaction work.<BR/><BR/>I'm not a big believer in peak oil either. However, to think that just because energy source becomes domestic would make it affordable is quite laughable. The US is the leading food exporter in the world, yet that fact has not prevented food price tripling in the last couple years. The fundamental issue is the debasement of the legal tender. Anything that gets drafted by the investment community into taking up the role of money as store of value is guaranteed to go up in price dramaticly, be they stocks, real estate or commodity.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-67485117753529884252008-05-31T06:24:00.000+01:002008-05-31T06:24:00.000+01:00Anon 11:15,Venezuela does it by robbing the oil co...Anon 11:15,<BR/><BR/>Venezuela does it by robbing the oil companies through "natinalization." Oil industry is capital intensive to get the well started, then relatively low cost for pumping alone. Charvez is cooking the proverbial goose that lays the eggs down there . . . a great meal for the time being, but will be hungry tomorrow.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-11039859965540069482008-05-31T06:20:00.000+01:002008-05-31T06:20:00.000+01:00Realist,What's your problem? Did you read the "if...Realist,<BR/><BR/>What's your problem? Did you read the "if you are concerned with that" conditional in my sentence? Personally, I'm not into the CO2-GlobalWarming myth, but those who praise the high gas price might be.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-62565404587433164062008-05-31T06:06:00.000+01:002008-05-31T06:06:00.000+01:00Interesting that Glenn Beck had the genius Raymond...Interesting that Glenn Beck had the genius Raymond Kurzweil<BR/><BR/>http://tinyurl.com/ancsx<BR/><BR/>as a guest and he said that within 5 years, we'll probably have enough solar power/mirrors in American deserts to power the entire country. He mentioned that many projects that are underway funded by Google and other major companies. So I'm not really concerned about Peak Oil that much. <BR/><BR/>Read the Wikipedia link above re: Ray, before you come throwing rocks.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-71304117707324331942008-05-31T05:13:00.000+01:002008-05-31T05:13:00.000+01:00The Russians don't seem to be running out of oil. ...The Russians don't seem to be running out of oil. They were the ones who first developed the abiotic theory of oil production. This theory says that the earth as well as all other planets create petroleum continuously (check Wikipedia for more info). Even though I have read quite a few of Kunstler's books and blogs and listened to his speeches, I don't agree with the peak oil scenario. I do agree with his opinions on urban planning though. The oil is there on U.S. territory, we just have to drill for it in different ways than we have in the past.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com