tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post1401198974443407493..comments2023-12-30T10:06:37.450+00:00Comments on HousingPANIC - The Housing Bubble Blog with an Attitude Problem, 2005 - 2008: Anyone surprised at how bad this asset deflation is getting now?bloggerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06585266242070350399noreply@blogger.comBlogger85125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-34784927712740164172008-02-11T23:58:00.000+00:002008-02-11T23:58:00.000+00:00I'm with you keefer. I don't dabble too much in t...I'm with you keefer. I don't dabble too much in the stock market lately. I am keeping my investments in the three "Gs" <BR/><BR/>Guns<BR/>Groceries<BR/>GMC pickup truckAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-47003396163408763582008-02-09T20:07:00.000+00:002008-02-09T20:07:00.000+00:00Bank dick,M2 and M3 represent credit transactions ...Bank dick,<BR/><BR/>M2 and M3 represent credit transactions which are different from monetary printing. VERY KEY TO THIS ARGUMENT.<BR/><BR/>Refer http://tinyurl.com/32pph3<BR/><BR/><BR/>If you read this article, which I provided you will find the following conclusions, which I agree with:<BR/><BR/><BR/>-Credit is expanding rapidly but with fractional reserve lending via sweeps and other mechanisms such as GSE debt creation and various carry trades, actual money itself is now contracting. <BR/><BR/>-This is further proof that the Fed has now totally lost control. What else can it mean when credit is soaring in the face of what otherwise appears to be rather tight monetary policy? <BR/><BR/>***-The distinction between money and credit is significant. A huge expansion in money supply leads to hyperinflation like the Weimar Republic or Zimbabwe.*** <BR/><BR/>***-A huge expansion in credit eventually leads to things like the tulip mania implosion, the railroad bust, and the great depression.***<BR/><BR/>-The Fed will fight this tooth and nail but right now their hands are tied. When the Fed starts lowering rates to combat this malaise, look for gold to soar. <BR/><BR/>-Long term, there is no way out. The policies of Greenspan and Bernanke will be repudiated. <BR/><BR/>Therefore, you do not need to see M3 drop to see deflation. M' is a more accurate predictor of deflation than M3. <BR/><BR/>I do agree with you that the FED will do anything in its power to create inflation. <BR/><BR/>DannyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-34851124194934813992008-02-09T02:29:00.000+00:002008-02-09T02:29:00.000+00:00ponch said...>>>I live an amazing life. I have eve...ponch said...<BR/>>>>I live an amazing life. I have everything I want for little cost, and I basically make a game out of living cheaply. I don't go overboard, and I do treat myself (and others) more and more as I become more wealthy.<BR/>February 07, 2008 5:20 PM<BR/>=====================<BR/><BR/>I like your style Ponch! Your girlfriend is lucky to have found a man like you, seriously. It's great to know there are others out there who don't believe in WASTE.<BR/><BR/>I used to be a clothes whore once upon a time. I loved shopping at the Gap, A&F, Banana Republic etc. until I found out their clothes were manufactured using slave labor and child labor in China and other countries! So I stopped supporting them.<BR/><BR/>I now purchase my clothes from the Studio's second hand stores. The actors only wear the clothing items once or twice. So I buy $200+ jeans for $35 or less etc. I too love the thrill of the hunt on EBay when I NEED (key word) to buy an item. I still own a PS1 and am happy with it, bought it used many years ago.Princess Mononokehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11062180421571379213noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-60707750155943832082008-02-09T01:23:00.000+00:002008-02-09T01:23:00.000+00:00To anonimous above,I am no trying to argue against...To anonimous above,<BR/><BR/>I am no trying to argue against gold here. As I have said before, gold is a risk hedge, and therefore should do good in times of economic turmoil, i.e. now.<BR/><BR/>But I do believe in the deflation camp.<BR/><BR/>DannyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-8589574698835199192008-02-08T23:45:00.000+00:002008-02-08T23:45:00.000+00:00Anon 5:13From your link: "M Prime approximates M1 ...Anon 5:13<BR/><BR/>From your link: "M Prime approximates M1 with sweeps added back in"<BR/><BR/>OK, so let's look at the OBVIOUS reason it's gone negative. The reason M Prime is down is that a lot of people and institutions are moving their money out of U.S. banks and those big sweep accounts are disappearing. <BR/><BR/>In our fractional reserve system there really is no distinction anymore between money and debt. They are interchangeable as any hedge fund manager will testify. The broad supply measure of "money", M3, is up and increasing rapidly. When you see M3 drop for a month or two in a row, come back and talk deflation.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-80603975234638422362008-02-08T21:26:00.000+00:002008-02-08T21:26:00.000+00:00Anonymous said... Keith, you are a loser. You keep...Anonymous said... <BR/>Keith, you are a loser. You keep predicting The Great Unwinding as if you are some sort of a master predictor. You don't know shit. For several years people like you and others (Robert Prechter, Peter Schiff, Stephen Roach, etc...) keep predicting that the end is near and it never happened. So keep hoping for an epic financial disaster while I laugh all the way to the bank.<BR/><BR/>February 08, 2008 6:43 AM<BR/><BR/>-------------------<BR/><BR/>Actually, Schiff's predictions have been pretty good. Someone following his advice over the past few years would have done very well indeed.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-81304314733180399172008-02-08T21:22:00.000+00:002008-02-08T21:22:00.000+00:00Anonymous said... Although, i am protecting my fut...Anonymous said... <BR/>Although, i am protecting my future loot by financing my education with student loans that are fixed @ 2.875%<BR/>___________________________________<BR/>Who cares? You still have to pay it back. It's not free money.<BR/><BR/>February 08, 2008 5:09 AM<BR/><BR/>------------------<BR/><BR/>The real question is whether the investment in education pays off with higher future earnings. Thanks to the wonders of globalization, that is not the nearly sure thing it used to be.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-20402519559686963552008-02-08T21:18:00.000+00:002008-02-08T21:18:00.000+00:00Anonymous said... Keith,Another thing I forgot to ...Anonymous said... <BR/>Keith,<BR/><BR/>Another thing I forgot to mention is that the dollar is rallying. You got that right, it is rallying and it will keep rallying. Careful with the metals boys.<BR/><BR/>Mish had a good write on it today. <BR/><BR/>Danny<BR/><BR/>February 08, 2008 2:24 AM<BR/><BR/>------------------<BR/><BR/>And yet gold keeps going up. It is inevitable that gold will rise against all the paper currencies. See, gold is much harder to produce than colored pieces of paper with numbers and pictures on them.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-3011859655883126452008-02-08T17:16:00.000+00:002008-02-08T17:16:00.000+00:00RE: Apple and AAPL share prices1) Poor people don'...RE: Apple and AAPL share prices<BR/><BR/>1) Poor people don't buy Apple products<BR/>2) ditto for cheap-ass IT types/Dell fanboys<BR/>3) The rich don't share your Wal-Mart mentality<BR/><BR/>There will always be a market for high-end, quality products. IMO AAPL is oversold at these prices.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-58887006458300910202008-02-08T17:13:00.000+00:002008-02-08T17:13:00.000+00:00Bank dick,Mish explains M3 and M prime pretty good...Bank dick,<BR/><BR/>Mish explains M3 and M prime pretty good in this write. <BR/><BR/>http://tinyurl.com/yvew95<BR/><BR/>Buffet might be right when he says that there is plenty of money at cheap prices, but what he is not telling you is that no one wants to lend money, and no one wants to borrow money.<BR/><BR/>Another good write about this.<BR/><BR/>http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2007/09/is-us-printing-money-like-mad.html<BR/><BR/>DannyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-37522816321377460412008-02-08T16:13:00.000+00:002008-02-08T16:13:00.000+00:00Anonymous said... LA-Thrifty sez:Hey Ponch! You ha...Anonymous said... <BR/>LA-Thrifty sez:<BR/><BR/>Hey Ponch! <BR/><BR/>You have to answer a question -- <BR/><BR/>I live like you do, but I comb thrift stores MERCILESSLY. I love it. I have closet full of clothes and I hardly pay a dime for it. But what swap meets are you talking about? The one on Vermont near LACC? Melrose at Fairfax? Which???<BR/>============================<BR/><BR/>I stop in the Goodwill store whenever I am in town, and the place is now packed every time I go in. You are hard put to find a parking place on the lot (old abandoned food store.)<BR/><BR/>The regular clientele has been replaced by middle to upper middle class patrons and the place has been re-designed to look like a boutique. They are also getting VERY selective as to what goods they will accept as donations for resale.<BR/><BR/>United Way has also gone the same direction, set up like a boutique, taking only designer clothes, collectables, and antiques (yes, I said antiques!)<BR/><BR/>Looks like second hand is becoming big business!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-62536646102608811532008-02-08T15:33:00.000+00:002008-02-08T15:33:00.000+00:00They won't dump the dollar because there are not e...They won't dump the dollar because there are not enough buyers to take $4 trillion sloshing around the world's CB's. They will continue to use the dollar reserves to buy US assets and companies. The Chinese and Arabs will soon own Wall Street. They will use that knowledge to build their own capital markets and dump us when they're ready.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-3025326101021046352008-02-08T15:30:00.000+00:002008-02-08T15:30:00.000+00:00Do you guys realize that the DOW is a price-weight...Do you guys realize that the DOW is a price-weighted index? It's a total scam.<BR/><BR/>The S&P is a market-weighted index, which is representative of the performance of the index. The S&P has been flat since March 2000. That's 8 years with zero gains.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-72955359845540428892008-02-08T15:27:00.000+00:002008-02-08T15:27:00.000+00:00I don't know if AAPL is so cheap in a recession. P...I don't know if AAPL is so cheap in a recession. People can buy a nice $200 phone from Motorola, Samsung or LG instead of a $600 iPhone. People can buy a nice mp3 player for $100 instead of a $300 iPod. When AAPL starts cutting prices and profit margins fall, what will the EPS be? Cut the profit margins in half, and the stock doesn't look so cheap anymore.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-24749146646577396752008-02-08T15:16:00.000+00:002008-02-08T15:16:00.000+00:00"I don’t believe in Helicopter Ben. The fed is act...<B>"I don’t believe in Helicopter Ben. The fed is actually shrinking the money supply at this moment."</B><BR/><BR/>Better look again anon:<BR/><BR/>http://tinyurl.com/m7bs7<BR/><BR/>M3 increased $10 billion last week and is growing at an annualized arte of about 16%. Our buddy Ben hasn't even brought the 'copter engines past idle yet. Listen to what Warren Buffett says<BR/><BR/><I>"I wouldn't quite call it a credit crunch," he said. "Money is available, and it's really quite cheap because of the lowering of rates that has taken place."<BR/><BR/>However, he said what had taken place was "a re-pricing of risk," leading to an "unavailability of what I might call 'dumb money', of which there was plenty around a year ago."</I><BR/><BR/>Plenty of money available at interest rates that reflect true borrowing risks -- leading to -- <I>inflation</I>.<BR/><BR/>The politicians and bankers need inflation to stay in power. They will do whatever it takes.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-67511340930794949152008-02-08T14:40:00.000+00:002008-02-08T14:40:00.000+00:00response to crashdummy's deflation predictionWe kn...response to crashdummy's deflation prediction<BR/><BR/>We know better then them, don’t we? There was high inflation the last 8 years. There will be deflation the next 5.<BR/><BR/>If you agree with the same definition of inflation and deflation that I do, than no, there will be deflation. Definition of inflation: Expansion of money and credit. Definition of deflation: Decrease of money and credit. Even though I agree with you to some extent that lowering the rates is an attempt to create inflation, it will fail. If you do your homework on this, you will find out that money and credit are now contracting. It ties in with the huge write offs at banks. And no, I don’t believe in Helicopter Ben. The fed is actually shrinking the money supply at this moment.<BR/><BR/>I don’t see how China can strengthen the yuan. But let’s just say that when you’re clients are too broke to pay for your goods in the first place, I doubt you would like to increase the price. That does not seem like a reasonable business decision. <BR/><BR/>I find it hard to believe that most things will not go down in prices. Just go to Walmart, Kohl’s, Target, Macy’s, Sears, K-mart, etc, etc, and you’ll see how they are slashing prices to remain competitive in this terrible economic environment. That sounds like deflation to me my friend. Even Starbucks is contemplating a $1 cup. I am not arguing that everything will drop either. Just do some research in Japan’s deflation experience for your answer.<BR/><BR/>I don’t think it’s in those countries’s interest to drop the dollar. If they all do drop the dollar, than yes there will be hyperinflation for us, and a depression for them. I don’t see how this can play out, if they stand more to loose than we do. Another thing is, the dollar will start to rally against all major currencies in the next few years, and it already started to rally. The dollar is way oversold. So soon, we will not be talking about how they will dump the dollars.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-13085537710545585332008-02-08T12:36:00.000+00:002008-02-08T12:36:00.000+00:00Look to Argentina my friends. Not as a way out b...Look to Argentina my friends. Not as a way out but a solution. Argentina had a terrible recession and hyperinflation. People lost their houses, business and factories shut down. With so many people losing homes there was no where for them to go except the streets. Instead everyone went back to their houses and their bankrupt factories and took over. They ignored the laws and govt. What is the govt going to do? arrest them? kill them? nope. nothing. The govt is allowing people to live in their houses and work in their businesses. Not having to pay their mortgage/rent is allowing the economy to grow again.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-38982645241013949272008-02-08T12:26:00.000+00:002008-02-08T12:26:00.000+00:00response to danny's deflation predictionDeflation?...response to danny's deflation prediction<BR/><BR/>Deflation? The BLS didn't count the huge home price increases into the inflation numbers for the last 5 years. Why would they work those declining home prices in now?<BR/><BR/>Fed Reserve will continue to lower rates, causing more inflation.<BR/><BR/>China is going to strengthen the yuan over the next few years, preventing prices in the US to drop.<BR/><BR/>I understand real estate will drop, but everything else has to go up.<BR/><BR/>In fact, we are going through stagflation right now.<BR/>Stagnant growth, and growing inflation. <BR/><BR/>Now if foreign countries, especially OPEC, drop the dollar as the reserve currency and medium of international exchange, we could see hyperinflation. <BR/><BR/>Think about it. International trade is done in dollars. If everyone stops using the dollar, all of that money will flood back in to the US. and the only way to control that is to raise interest rates.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-35061483955973122492008-02-08T09:36:00.000+00:002008-02-08T09:36:00.000+00:00Well well, look what I found. Confirmation that we...Well well, look what I found. Confirmation that we are having fake rallys so the insiders can dump their stock.<BR/><BR/>http://www.cnbc.com/id/23055625<BR/><BR/>Market "Jinx" Broken, But Troubles Still Hanging Around <BR/><BR/>Posted By:Bob Pisani <BR/><BR/>The good news is that we broke the three day jinx and did not end at our lows for the day. More good news: retailers for the most part did not drop, despite poor January sales. <BR/><BR/>The bad news: a stronger midday rally was quashed. Worse, selling intensity picked up notably at the top, which occurred right after 2 PM ET. <BR/><BR/>In other words, traders sold right into the rally, heavily. <BR/><BR/>This illustrates the central problem: buying conviction (demand) is not that strong.<BR/><BR/>Absent some catalyst (like dramatic rate cuts) that sends sellers temporarily to the sideline, supply of stock (i.e. sellers) is readily available.<BR/> <BR/>This means that the stocks that rallied most off the January bottom--retailers, financials--are in a bit of a no-man's land right now.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-36431177844076160802008-02-08T08:48:00.000+00:002008-02-08T08:48:00.000+00:00"If you buy stocks now, you're going to lose your ..."If you buy stocks now, you're going to lose your shirt. The smart money is trying hard to create fake rallies just to sell. The same is happening with the phony "global growth" stocks, which the corrupt MSM helps to push with tools like Kudlow and Bartiromo. Nothing but pumping and dumping going on.<BR/><BR/>Cash is king!"<BR/><BR/>That comment is worth another read!<BR/>I enjoy the insights from the smart people on this board. A lot of weird things going on. I've noticed a lot of REITs rallying during the day and then being dumped down in the after hours market. You have to wonder what secret dealings are going on.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-12185113096422907762008-02-08T06:43:00.000+00:002008-02-08T06:43:00.000+00:00Keith, you are a loser. You keep predicting The Gr...Keith, you are a loser. You keep predicting The Great Unwinding as if you are some sort of a master predictor. You don't know shit. For several years people like you and others (Robert Prechter, Peter Schiff, Stephen Roach, etc...) keep predicting that the end is near and it never happened. So keep hoping for an epic financial disaster while I laugh all the way to the bank.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-75710380469586915162008-02-08T05:19:00.000+00:002008-02-08T05:19:00.000+00:00RSX – Russia? – That is a maybe (although they hav...<B>RSX – Russia? – That is a maybe (although they have their own huge housing bubble)</B><BR/>-----------------------------------<BR/>Yep, they have it. <BR/>When we were leaving Russia, we sold our 2 bedroom (1 bedroom in USA) condo for $9400. This days you can buy the same condor I guess for $50000-$60000. What about median salary? Yep, it went up too, maybe 2 or 3 times. Do the math.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-24156245629865685112008-02-08T05:09:00.000+00:002008-02-08T05:09:00.000+00:00Although, i am protecting my future loot by financ...<B>Although, i am protecting my future loot by financing my education with student loans that are fixed @ 2.875%</B><BR/>___________________________________<BR/>Who cares? You still have to pay it back. It's not free money.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-67285575858628023192008-02-08T04:05:00.000+00:002008-02-08T04:05:00.000+00:00Anyone selling puts on ultrashort ETFs?ETFs like S...Anyone selling puts on ultrashort ETFs?<BR/><BR/>ETFs like SRS and SKF are great for trading.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-65130830465661702822008-02-08T03:46:00.000+00:002008-02-08T03:46:00.000+00:00LA-Thrifty sez:Hey Ponch! You have to answer a q...LA-Thrifty sez:<BR/><BR/>Hey Ponch! <BR/><BR/>You have to answer a question -- <BR/><BR/>I live like you do, but I comb thrift stores MERCILESSLY. I love it. I have closet full of clothes and I hardly pay a dime for it. But what swap meets are you talking about? The one on Vermont near LACC? Melrose at Fairfax? Which???Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com