tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post1186301578783313179..comments2023-12-30T10:06:37.450+00:00Comments on HousingPANIC - The Housing Bubble Blog with an Attitude Problem, 2005 - 2008: HousingPANIC Stupid Question of the Daybloggerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06585266242070350399noreply@blogger.comBlogger69125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-253916895997585762008-01-15T18:22:00.000+00:002008-01-15T18:22:00.000+00:00Outskirts of Nashville, Prices have fallen, but no...Outskirts of Nashville, Prices have fallen, but not by much. Only a couple of % points. But, really, I don't think that they were ever super wild to begin with. <BR/><BR/>It costs about 1000 to rent a 3 br house with a nice yard out here, cost pretty much the exact same to own. <BR/><BR/>Prices in my neighborhood range from 100-200k.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-42062558807085909852008-01-15T18:12:00.000+00:002008-01-15T18:12:00.000+00:00I live in Chicago (downtown, not the burbs) and I ...I live in Chicago (downtown, not the burbs) and I don't think prices have dropped at all. Supply is up, the market is slow but no falling prices yet.<BR/><BR/>This is one of the few liveable urban environments in the United States, the type of place where your own parking place is the equivalent of the holy grail. They can't create more land and jobs are plentiful. I imagine prices might come off some but they have not yet.<BR/><BR/>I am wondering what is happening with real estate in Manhatten?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-71168747165451108092008-01-15T17:11:00.000+00:002008-01-15T17:11:00.000+00:00I live at ground zero, Bakersfield CA. The average...I live at ground zero, Bakersfield CA. The average sel... er.. make that not-selling-rotting-on-the-market-for-9-months price has dipped by about 10-15% from peak. <BR/><BR/>The local public is past the denial stage, but they're not calling the shots anymore. The bank assigned trustees, who basically own all of the inventory, have been reluctant to take mark to market offers thus far. Maybe they're still in denial? Perhaps they're covering some investment manager's @ss by delaying the write off? <BR/><BR/>This is really getting to be a long cycle. Possibly a good future topic Keith?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-1027297346992693102008-01-15T01:46:00.000+00:002008-01-15T01:46:00.000+00:00I do not care if they were giving trips to massage...I do not care if they were giving trips to massage parlors, what I am trying to say is that about 1 year ago this rental market here was extremely tight. There is now a deluge of available rentals and rents are being pressured downward.<BR/>The amount of available commercial lease signs, business liquidations, homes for sale, repo auctions, closed restaurants, are unbelievable. There is a definite fear in the Inland Empire. <BR/><BR/> IcemanAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-34382674712442694082008-01-15T01:01:00.000+00:002008-01-15T01:01:00.000+00:00Sacramento, CAAs a licensed Loan Officer, I took a...Sacramento, CA<BR/><BR/>As a licensed Loan Officer, I took a lot of flack over the last 4 years for not buying and renting really nice houses for super cheap. but now that the median housing prices have fallen 24% since the peak in the summer or '05, I think we have another 15-20% to go. But these just represent the median prices, some of the ritzier places outside sacramento (folsom, granite bay, el dorado hills, etc.) are screwed. I know several contemporaries who have lost 20+% on their 600K+ homes and are mailing their keys back to the lender.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-70712846267429096912008-01-15T00:54:00.000+00:002008-01-15T00:54:00.000+00:00Living in a trendy neighborhood of Louisville, Ky ...Living in a trendy neighborhood of Louisville, Ky (yeah, but I have a job), a.k.a. fly-over country...I have a nice Victorian in a good neighborhood and have probably lost 5% over my purchase price this year after watching similar houses in the neighborhood going for 20-25% more for the last few years, at least I am not those folks! I still expect to loose another $15-25,000 (or 10%+ off the peak) this year alone. It is very hard to judge, some smaller new construction in the same area still sells for about the same price, and they are building and selling condos in the neighborhood, but I am waiting for the crash as peoples spending in the local art galleries, coffee shops, and so forth drops and these places close making this a much less inviting place to live. I fear another 10%+ drop next year, and a an eventual wipe-out of my "equity".Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-15819483638041680612008-01-15T00:16:00.000+00:002008-01-15T00:16:00.000+00:00Am in South Orange County, CA - having had my Alis...Am in South Orange County, CA - having had my Aliso Viejo townhome on the market for close to a year. Starting price in Jan. '07 was 529K - just closed escrow in Dec. at 425K. I nosedived the price when I found out the immediate next door unit was on its way to becoming an REO. However, I was real fortunate - I bought in '90 at 186K - never took out any equity, never indebted myself, and the place was almost paid off. I re-financed the interest rate years ago & joined the equity accelerator program, so the mortgage was close to being paid in full. Now, I'm leasing in Newport Coast for a year, waiting for nearby estate properties to nosedive. I'll have close to 50% in a cash downpayment. The community I left - Aliso Viejo - has one of the highest foreclosure rates in the County - + decay and blight setting in so many neighborhoods from lack of standards, community leadership & the community generally being an 'entry level' market. The 100% financing schemes of yesterday brought in an element now bringing down overall community standards. Homes are NOT selling - homeowners have indebted themselves foolishly - 2 & 3 families are moving into condos & SFRs; garages are being used for living areas & scores of vehicles are parked everwhere - looks like.. -- (fill in the blanks). Now that the community is approaching 20 years, its not aging well, nor is it being maintained. Water pipes are breaking in certain sub-dvisions (I was part of a small group of Homeowner Ass'ns trying to improve standards, but the trailer trash crowd wasn't interested in having standards raised - only in screaming during community meetings). Crime is increasing, as is general decay & malaise. People will now be reaping what they've sown & the clowns at City Council are clueless morons who have no sense of leadership whatsoever, let alone plans for dealing with this encroaching blight.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-85396130009656257122008-01-14T19:33:00.000+00:002008-01-14T19:33:00.000+00:001) Frederick County, MD2) Roughly between 15 and 2...1) Frederick County, MD<BR/><BR/>2) Roughly between 15 and 20 percent drop so far, looking at the numerous houses that I've tracked using MD's property assessment website, that were bought by idiots at the peak and on the market now or sold recently.<BR/><BR/>3) Total of about 40% or so peak to trough (that's nominal - probably 50%-55% in real terms), when looking at typical incomes for Frederick county (even for people that commute to DC suburbs or the long commute to DC itself) and typical house prices. Plain, mediocre 3 br / 2 ba ranchers that were selling for $450K in Sept. 2005 will realistically cost about $270K at the bottom if the median income increases by then (more like $225K if incomes don't increase). This drop is not daydreaming; this is looking at median household incomes (assuming 2 wage earners) and what you can afford each month with a standard 30-year mortgage and downpayment (which will be the norm again soon if it isn't already). The drop may be even greater if I'm being too optimistic about incomes and assuming the job market will be as strong in the futre as it is now. I've lived in this county for almost 30 years and have never seen such displacement of house prices from what people can realistically afford as I have in the last few years.<BR/><BR/>4) Mid-2010 at absolute earliest; more like 2011 or 2012.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-76750098927613173572008-01-14T19:10:00.000+00:002008-01-14T19:10:00.000+00:00On the outskirts of the Poconos, about 25 miles NE...On the outskirts of the Poconos, about 25 miles NE of Scranton. Listings daily outnumber closed sales 10-1...and the foreclosures have just begun to creep in...saw my first two weeks ago, and since then, there are more every day going up that are bank owned. <BR/><BR/>Back in 2001, you could purchase a 1500+ sq foot victorian style home in town for 20K. Last spring, that same home was selling for 140-160K. Today, listed at 110-125K. We sold near peak after buyint for 50K, and when I can get a place in town again for less than renting (PITI) I'll consider buying back in...we're out in the stix now renting and while the renting part is fun I'm not digging all the driving. Counter productive to being fiscally responsible.<BR/><BR/>And to think of all the morons who were screaming 'if we don't buy now we'll never get in!'.<BR/><BR/>Hiliarious. I see things going right back to 2004 prices (50-80K), because that's what we can AFFORD here based on local income levels.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-78642991648395281222008-01-14T16:34:00.000+00:002008-01-14T16:34:00.000+00:00I glanced at the classifieds and a landlord was gi...I glanced at the classifieds and a landlord was giving away 42" plasma screen tvs to sign a lease <BR/><BR/>---<BR/><BR/>42" TVs cost under $1000. Last apartment I rented was in 2002. Rent was $1100 a month and I got 1.5 free months rent or a $1650 value.<BR/><BR/>The 42" TV is a gimmick, but giving away freebies to sign an apartment lease is nothing new.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-7425139724951708862008-01-14T15:17:00.000+00:002008-01-14T15:17:00.000+00:00Lansing, MichiganHard to tell, so few houses are s...Lansing, Michigan<BR/><BR/>Hard to tell, so few houses are selling, but a good guess is 30 to 40% in some cases.<BR/><BR/>Biggest problems? Builders still unloading stock . . . and still finishing subdivisions in some cases. Saw a billboard driving in this morning advertising a 1500 sq ft, 3 brm, 1 & 1/2 bath (with unfinished basement) in a good suburban school district for $119,000. My guess is if you offered them $99K they would take it and run. RUN! How can people with existing homes compete with that sh*t?<BR/><BR/>I currently rent a 6 year old, 2500 sq ft, 4 bd, 2 & 1/2 bath for $1100 a month that the owner could not sell at $230,000 a year ago and he started at $255K. Three houses on my street (of about 20 homes) have gone into foreclosure in the past year. Three others were up for sale this past summer and even with a price drop, none of them moved. Several more sit empty, so it's getting kinda quiet here.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-82375692538146847562008-01-14T14:47:00.000+00:002008-01-14T14:47:00.000+00:00Northside of Chicago: nice relatively safe (somewh...Northside of Chicago: nice relatively safe (somewhat yuppified) neighborhood. The 2BR Condo on the corner has been sitting at 350K since September; down the street is a 1BR for 190K that's been sitting since at least June (both w/o parking.) Still pretty stubborn here, but no one's buying.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-33835585445783090202008-01-14T14:16:00.000+00:002008-01-14T14:16:00.000+00:00Montgomery County, MD, renterPrices are declining ...Montgomery County, MD, renter<BR/><BR/>Prices are declining some but it seems many sellers are stubborn and haven't realized they are losing by not negotiating price. I hope to see an additional 15% decline over the next year.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-78845373592179816822008-01-14T07:55:00.000+00:002008-01-14T07:55:00.000+00:00Anonymous said... I inherited a family home that D...Anonymous said... <BR/>I inherited a family home that Dad paid $40,000 for in 1964. If we loose 50% it will only be worth 2.5 million. I am so screwed.<BR/><BR/>I would't doubt it after your $2,000,000 HELOCBoombahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06416035661224110156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-70276756869305493372008-01-14T05:55:00.000+00:002008-01-14T05:55:00.000+00:00The Inland Empire is going to be an inferno.Its cr...The Inland Empire is going to be an inferno.<BR/><BR/>Its crashing hard and we have only just begun.<BR/><BR/>Housing is one of several problems that we have out here.<BR/><BR/>I glanced at the classifieds and a landlord was giving away 42" plasma screen tvs to sign a lease at the apartment complex. I saw another one that offered 4 months free rent and others that offered 1-2 months free rent.<BR/><BR/>Rents are starting to fall due to oversupply.<BR/><BR/>AUCTIONS are also becoming prevalent along with mass garage sales and estate sales.<BR/><BR/> ICEMANAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-61493439728187176872008-01-14T05:42:00.000+00:002008-01-14T05:42:00.000+00:00Suburbs of SLC, UtahAnother area where everyone th...Suburbs of SLC, Utah<BR/><BR/>Another area where everyone thinks we're immune but no houses are selling and all the construction help (read illegals) have flooded OUT of the area (I know because I volunteer at a medical clinic for illegals ad homeless). Dozens of now abandoned luxury homes, some only partially completed. Lots of RE fraud in the news ("River Bottoms fraud"). Utah was a hotbed for Option Arm A toxic loans (9.5% of all those ever written were here in our small state) and that reset day is coming in a few years (2010 and 2011). So this is going to get bad. I say 2012 for the bottom here and I agree with the above foreshadowing 75% declines. Utah hitorically lags behind the rest of the West and then recessions/depressions last commensurately longer here. It's coming Utahns -- get ready!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-17740656458905797142008-01-14T05:40:00.000+00:002008-01-14T05:40:00.000+00:00Our house in south riverside california appraised ...Our house in south riverside california appraised for $505,000 in March of 2007. We purchased in 2004 for $286,000. Our neighbors home(after being on the market for over a year) is bank-owned & it is now on the market for $287,000. I knew it was coming, but it's breathtaking! I figure it will go down to $150,000 when all is said & done.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-45367546715848945172008-01-14T03:49:00.000+00:002008-01-14T03:49:00.000+00:00OregonM2M : -5%Peak to trough :Within 5 years they...Oregon<BR/><BR/>M2M : -5%<BR/><BR/>Peak to trough :<BR/>Within 5 years they will be down 40% - back to mid to late 90's prices.<BR/><BR/>There is no bottom - prices will continue to fall into the 2020's. <BR/><BR/>You won't believe how bad things will be by then.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-75556172346827095682008-01-14T03:04:00.000+00:002008-01-14T03:04:00.000+00:00Another P.G. County (just inside the DC Beltway) r...Another P.G. County (just inside the DC Beltway) renter checking in. Happened to see some "price reduced" listings today, and have noticed the beginnings of a decline (5-10%?) <BR/> Would love to see 50 - 75% unadjusted by the time it is all over - bubble prices ran up 150% or more.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-66672016482203788272008-01-14T02:54:00.000+00:002008-01-14T02:54:00.000+00:00I live in Easter Pa., Bethlehem, Lehigh Valley. 1 ...I live in Easter Pa., Bethlehem, Lehigh Valley. 1 hour from NYC and 1 hour from Philly. Lot's of commuters into NY. Prices here are up 60% since '02. Nov, '06 through Nov, '07 pices up 6.3% with sales down 17%. We never had the run-up nor the crazy abuse of Option ARMS, speculators etc. Housing here was basically flat from '91-'02 so while we're up 60% in 5 years it's maybe 75% in the past 15. We went from a very low cost market to moderately priced. I'll never say it's different here but not all markets are the same. Areas with low wages, Phoenix, Florida, Central California will see 50%+ drops following 250% apreciation. Some areas I've been tracking have drops >40% already. We may see 10% decline here but it's still going up but much slower.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-64583393027805060282008-01-14T02:49:00.000+00:002008-01-14T02:49:00.000+00:00Renter in Rhode Island here, Prices are now down 1...Renter in Rhode Island here,<BR/> Prices are now down 10 to 20 + percent from the 2005 peak. Still, nothing is moving. The bank owned properties are now about 10 percent cheaper than those owned by locals, and falling. I have owned here several times, grew up here, and having sold a few years ago, I would say there is still at least another 30 percent to drop to get back to the norm. I would also think about the coming waves of property that will flood the market more when the baby boomers sell the house and retire. As for me, I've got popcorn, I'm watching.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-1938681268135611982008-01-14T01:22:00.000+00:002008-01-14T01:22:00.000+00:00Logan, Utah.Houses have not fallen yet at all. Ren...Logan, Utah.<BR/><BR/>Houses have not fallen yet at all. Rents (avg $1200/mth for a piece of crap) are high than mortgages (avg. $900/mth). Not enough rentals and lots of houses for sale. Everybody wants to rent but their aren't enough houses to rent. Low wages make people not able to afford a new house but yet rents are still high. It's a college town with transient Professors and stacking 8 college kids per house that are keeping the rents high. I'd buy but I think the houses are too expensive for the $1200/mth they can bring in rent. The avg house price here is $190,000 but it should be more like $160,000 based on local salaries. Very weird. I hate living in a non-disclosure state!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-31788918823831798952008-01-14T00:22:00.000+00:002008-01-14T00:22:00.000+00:00Suburbs East of TampaIn my neighborhood, we're dow...Suburbs East of Tampa<BR/><BR/>In my neighborhood, we're down approx. 35% based on the last sale in December. A pending sale has yet to close, but I'll go with 35%.<BR/><BR/>Ultimately, I think we will end up 40% below peak. <BR/><BR/>In real dollar terms, we're easily down over 50%, heading towards 60%.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-57362842694821039712008-01-14T00:16:00.000+00:002008-01-14T00:16:00.000+00:00I inherited a family home that Dad paid $40,000 fo...I inherited a family home that Dad paid $40,000 for in 1964. If we loose 50% it will only be worth 2.5 million. I am so screwed.<BR/><BR/>Thank god I'm a big saver.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-25086465521635050442008-01-13T23:59:00.000+00:002008-01-13T23:59:00.000+00:00Los Angeles (Harbor area)Prices currently off 5-10...Los Angeles (Harbor area)<BR/><BR/>Prices currently off 5-10% from the high.<BR/><BR/>However, sales are very slow, so it is a bit hard to actually know what real prices are. In particular, if you must sell fast, you will likely lose more than that.<BR/><BR/>My prediction is for another 25% fall, which will bottom out in 2010-2011.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com