tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post115351660803259908..comments2023-12-30T10:06:37.450+00:00Comments on HousingPANIC - The Housing Bubble Blog with an Attitude Problem, 2005 - 2008: HP'ers: Picture what a 30% to 50% decline in housing values looks likebloggerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06585266242070350399noreply@blogger.comBlogger40125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-1155386711555770762006-08-12T13:45:00.000+01:002006-08-12T13:45:00.000+01:00Hi there Blogger, a real useful blog.Keep with the...Hi there Blogger, a real useful blog.Keep with the good work.<BR/>If you have a moment, please visit my <A HREF="http://www.car-center.ws" REL="nofollow">used honda cars</A> site.<BR/>I send you warm regards and wishes of continued success.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-1155380236938936702006-08-12T11:57:00.001+01:002006-08-12T11:57:00.001+01:00Hi Fellow! I was just searching blogs,and I found ...Hi Fellow! I was just searching blogs,and I found yours! I like it!<BR/>If you have a moment, please visit my <A HREF="http://www.loans-center.biz" REL="nofollow">bad credit mortgage arizona</A> site.<BR/>Good luck!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-1155380230731970882006-08-12T11:57:00.000+01:002006-08-12T11:57:00.000+01:00Hi Fellow! I was just searching blogs,and I found ...Hi Fellow! I was just searching blogs,and I found yours! I like it!<BR/>If you have a moment, please visit my <A HREF="http://www.loans-center.biz" REL="nofollow">bad credit mortgage arizona</A> site.<BR/>Good luck!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-1155009728522100582006-08-08T05:02:00.000+01:002006-08-08T05:02:00.000+01:00Hello Friend! I just came across your blog and wan...Hello Friend! I just came across your blog and wanted to<BR/>drop you a note telling you how impressed I was with <BR/>the information you have posted here.<BR/>Keep up the great work, you are providing a great resource on the Internet here!<BR/>If you have a moment, please make a visit to my <A HREF="http://www.loans-center.biz" REL="nofollow">bad credit loan mortgage second</A> site.<BR/>Good luck in your endeavors!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-1153757488425172212006-07-24T17:11:00.000+01:002006-07-24T17:11:00.000+01:00We are just getting what we deserve - we are basic...We are just getting what we deserve - we are basically - spoiled, selfish, self centered, Liars, Cheats, and just out for our selves, So what we are seeing is the Death of The Big Lie We All Bought Into because of our Selfish Ness. Now the Reckoning Starts - First The Crys of I don't Deserve this - Second the Change of Financial Wealth will Occur - Third the Roar of Anger will fuel the Investigation and Search for Person(s) to Place the Blame on - Fourth - The Gap between the Haves and Havenots will grow by 15% Permantely adhering large groups of Individuals to Semi- Poverty for the Rest of their Natural Lives..<BR/>LET THE BLOOD LETTING BEGIN.....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-1153750426505408342006-07-24T15:13:00.000+01:002006-07-24T15:13:00.000+01:00A used car salesman is a good economic barometer. ...A used car salesman is a good economic barometer. One that I know sez the people have terrible credit and still want to get a car with no money down. J6P is getting very squeezed.<BR/><BR/>This is going to be very interesting. Possibly very dangerous. Traded for another gun last weekend (9mm).<BR/><BR/>I keep wondering why the date 2010 keeps popping up. Now I read that China will continue to use much of the world's concrete and steel building seaports and highways until then. India also. The demand for fuel in those 2 countries is increasing as a result.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-1153680426199920872006-07-23T19:47:00.000+01:002006-07-23T19:47:00.000+01:00"You guys are all crazy! when the bottom is reache..."You guys are all crazy! when the bottom is reached, no-one will want to buy. That is how you know it's the bottom. And, for that matter, very few people will understand, and have the balls or money to buy."<BR/><BR/> Are you kidding? I have about 200k I profitted from selling my primary home to a sucker last month!!! I am using that to buy at the botom.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-1153640106100144172006-07-23T08:35:00.000+01:002006-07-23T08:35:00.000+01:00The inflation issue is a tough one - makes decisio...The inflation issue is a tough one - makes decision-making tough.<BR/><BR/>If there'll be a big dollar devaluation, then now is the perfect time to buy real estate - right before interest rates and prices go shooting up.<BR/><BR/>That's a big bet to make, though. Inflation/devaluation would have a lot of consequences that the US Government wouldn't like - first of which that overseas military deployments would suddenly become MUCH more expensive and unwelcome. <BR/><BR/>Another consequence would be that oil markets would be under pressure to switch to pricing oil (currently priced in dollars) to a more stable currency. This would result in a situation where oil could become more expensive IN TRANSIT from wherever it is pumped, to here, as the dollar slips further against the euro or whatever substitute currency is chosen. <BR/><BR/>Another consequence would be that there would be a huge shakeup as the entire country retools to become a country that manufactures goods for domestic use and export rather than retailing imported goods. There would be a lot of import-substitution as cheap imported goods become expensive. If you believe there will be inflation, short big retailers selling imported goods (Wal-Mart, every other retailer). Malls would shut down.<BR/><BR/>Interest rates would skyrocket and the high cost of borrowing would deter risk-taking.<BR/><BR/>It's in the Federal Government's interest to prevent inflation, even at the cost of smothering the little guy (the homeowner). This is why the Fed isn't run by an elected official.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-1153609331903017962006-07-23T00:02:00.000+01:002006-07-23T00:02:00.000+01:00divide and conquer and distract with meaningless e...divide and conquer and distract with meaningless emotional issues.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-1153606783471174482006-07-22T23:19:00.000+01:002006-07-22T23:19:00.000+01:00"The politicians are still aruging about flag burn..."The politicians are still aruging about flag burning, gay marriage, stem cell research....it is infuriating."<BR/><BR/>The idea here is divide and conquer.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-1153582829395198792006-07-22T16:40:00.000+01:002006-07-22T16:40:00.000+01:00>>> RE: Washington DC and gunsRead Ann Coulters ch...>>> RE: Washington DC and guns<BR/><BR/>Read Ann Coulters chapter "A Ruger is a Girls Best Friend"<BR/><BR/>Funny, my wife carry's a Ruger before the book came out. (And she's blond ;-)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-1153582767553717922006-07-22T16:39:00.000+01:002006-07-22T16:39:00.000+01:00>>> How true, one aspect of living in DC is that I...>>> How true, one aspect of living in DC is that I am numb to the sight of unemployable teenage and twenty something thugs on the streets and subway, there are many areas that have been good areas that may quickly go bad as desperate owners rent to any thug with some cash to pay the first months rent. <BR/><BR/>And the worse of it is they don't let you carry a gun to protect yourself from them. I lived in Florida for a while which has similar issues, but at least it was easy to get a permit for a gun.<BR/><BR/>You would think in the nations capital you could exercise your constitutional right to defend yourself. Remember, the first thing the British did leading up to the revolution is to disarm Boston. (Which also leads in gun control, how ironic)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-1153575470440118902006-07-22T14:37:00.000+01:002006-07-22T14:37:00.000+01:00"Anonymous said... So Pa,Where do you live that's ..."Anonymous said... <BR/>So Pa,<BR/><BR/>Where do you live that's not a bubble town?<BR/><BR/>WL"<BR/> <BR/> Small town of Delta, in south central PA. but where you live dosen't matter. All of our bloggers know whether they are in a bubble area or not. Same rent to own formula applies everywhere.<BR/><BR/> "skytrekker said... <BR/>I think you will see a 30-40 percent decline in many markets- but the decline will likely be spread over 5-7 years- like water torture........."<BR/><BR/> So true. I would like to see this over and done with, but that "sticky" aspect of housing <BR/>will just draaaaaaaaaaaag it along.<BR/>Slow torture indeed!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-1153563822296734402006-07-22T11:23:00.000+01:002006-07-22T11:23:00.000+01:00So Pa,Where do you live that's not a bubble town?W...So Pa,<BR/><BR/>Where do you live that's not a bubble town?<BR/><BR/>WLAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-1153550260948370622006-07-22T07:37:00.000+01:002006-07-22T07:37:00.000+01:00Another notable sign;13.) U.S. might get dragged i...Another notable sign;<BR/>13.) U.S. might get dragged into war in aid of Israel, if Syria and Iran gets into the picture.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-1153540661381099212006-07-22T04:57:00.000+01:002006-07-22T04:57:00.000+01:00There are some real risks here. Notable signs of ...There are some real risks here. Notable signs of the times: (economic)<BR/><BR/>1) WaMu just laid off 900 people, 350 of them directly in the mortgage business.<BR/>2) Ameriquest off'ed 3800.<BR/>3) WaMu sold their mortgage business to another bank (Wells Fargo?)<BR/>4) Restaurants have been showing same-store sales going down.<BR/>5) Home Depot and Best Buy disappoint. (As well as others.)<BR/>6) Homebuilders disappoint big time.<BR/>7) Intel: laid off 1000, 10-15k more to come.<BR/>8) Dell, Disney, Intel, many others, earnings and forecast disappointments, rumored layoffs. Don't even start with GM, Ford.<BR/>9) Jobs growth has disappointed (been less than equilibrium for new workers) for a few months now<BR/>10) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac: two year-missing financial statements, management shuffling and firings<BR/>11) DJIA down 6% since may<BR/>12) Mortgage business slowing, homebuilders dealing with inventory glut.<BR/>13) Inflation is high, not just in the US, but around the world.<BR/>14) Inflation-adjusted income hasn't increased in 4 years.<BR/>15) Housing debt is near 10 tril. Government debt is 8.4 tril. Fed deficit is > 400 bil including Iraq/Afghan costs.<BR/>16) Most new jobs in the last few years has been in retail and real estate.<BR/>17) Gas is real expensive, as are health care and of course housing.<BR/><BR/>(social)<BR/>1) Everybody seems to be talking real estate. Everyone has friends who've made "quite a bundle" on housing recently.<BR/>2) Two TV shows on TLC about property flipping: "Flip That House" and "Property Ladder"<BR/>3) A coworker recently left work to start a positioin in the real estate business.<BR/>4) A huge glut of real estate professionals.<BR/>5) Constant barrage of radio ads peddling "100% financing 1% payment option adjustable rate loans"<BR/>6) People are paying way more than a few years ago on their mortgage payment, despite low interest rates.<BR/>7) Books by NAR chief economist proclaiming "Housing Boom No Bust: Get in WHile You Still Can". ("Dow 36,000", anyone?)<BR/>8) People can't even come close to paying real estate recurring expenses using rents collected.<BR/>9) Google "housing bubble": 10,000,000+ hits.<BR/>10) My roommate who works for a temp agency was called to work at a mortgage broker firm, calling up banks to get lists of mortgage clients for new leads. (said no)<BR/>11) War breaking out in Isreal/Lebanon. Could spread to Syria, Iran. Meanwhile, Iraq war is going nowhere, has potential for civil war.<BR/>12) Overheard a neighbor and a girl at the coffee shop talking about buying a home. Coffee shop girl was real proud that she'd saved $4,000 for a down payment and was wanting to look around for a condo. (In Cali! $4k!?!? DP on a litter box maybe)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-1153540414130417932006-07-22T04:53:00.000+01:002006-07-22T04:53:00.000+01:00Do any of you seriously believe that Congress will...Do any of you seriously believe that Congress will let millions of families lose their homes? There will be no depression because Uncle Sugar will bail them out. If you want to plan for something, get ready for the inflation and devaluation of the dollar that will accompany the bailout. <BR/><BR/>Illegals will get the boot for sure and look for a lot of expats to come back to the USA with their tail between their legs. That $3K/month pension check just won't cut it abroad anymore when one dollar = one peso.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-1153539204468034342006-07-22T04:33:00.000+01:002006-07-22T04:33:00.000+01:00You guys are all crazy! when the bottom is reached...You guys are all crazy! when the bottom is reached, no-one will want to buy. That is how you know it's the bottom. And, for that matter, very few people will understand, and have the balls or money to buy. <BR/><BR/>If we go into a depression, the prices will tank below anything I've seen on this site. Get a grip!<BR/><BR/>The dark ages are almost nere!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-1153538910535106942006-07-22T04:28:00.000+01:002006-07-22T04:28:00.000+01:00Boston isn't going to come down 30-50%? Mercy chil...Boston isn't going to come down 30-50%? Mercy child, it is already half way down to 30% and the fun has just begin. <BR/><BR/>Look through the lags and see the possiblities. <BR/><BR/>America has been in decline since its last REAL boom between 96-2000(3 indicators, employment growth,wage growth and real wealth hitting all growing during a period of years. During the 91-01 expansion, that is what happened from Q3 1996 to Q1 2000). It has been declining since then, with decay in Urban areas, wealth effect only still happening at the top, weak job creation, bitter labor environment that is worse than the numbers indicate. <BR/><BR/>Classic Monetary phenom boom, much like the "short boom" of 72-73 after the historic 60's expansion monetised by the FED, though this one got started a little later and has lasted a year longer, but the end result will be the same, a recession then stagflation. <BR/><BR/>A bitter pill. Might as well take our medicane now, pay the piper and come out of it in the 2010's a stronger and wiser nation. But alas, I figure the poor policy will continue, fools.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-1153535649336890552006-07-22T03:34:00.000+01:002006-07-22T03:34:00.000+01:00sold at the peak said..."The Bubble rapidly accele...sold at the peak said...<BR/><BR/>"The Bubble rapidly accelerated gentrification...<BR/><BR/>...People forget, that cycle can reverse itself any time...."<BR/><BR/>How true, one aspect of living in DC is that I am numb to the sight of unemployable teenage and twenty something thugs on the streets and subway, there are many areas that have been good areas that may quickly go bad as desperate owners rent to any thug with some cash to pay the first months rent.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-1153533742748695932006-07-22T03:02:00.001+01:002006-07-22T03:02:00.001+01:00Boston is already down 10-20%. My aunt sells real...Boston is already down 10-20%. My aunt sells real estate there. More to come. The time to buy is when prices form a 50% retracement pattern from the recent insane runup. That's how I figure out where the bottem is in a stock- so it may hold true. So, if prices went up 100k in the last few years (on a given property), then when they come down 50k, is when I'll start looking. Prices may go even lower due to macroeconomics.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-1153533739163641262006-07-22T03:02:00.000+01:002006-07-22T03:02:00.000+01:00"Anonymous said... cheaper housing will be good fo..."Anonymous said... <BR/>cheaper housing will be good for many. much higher disposible income. One friend says his mortgage takes up "most" of his income. another doens't go out at all anymore because he can't afford it."<BR/><BR/> The wife and I can afford to go out, we just don't want to. We both resent the higher and higher prices we are seeing slowly creep into the big picture, that wouldn't be there is Americans started living like adults with a brain between their ears instead of an "I WANT IT NOW" sign. I am seeing the slowdown in the local economy everywhere I go and everyone I talk to! The rank and file is noticing the rising prices of everything. And I am not in a housing bubble area! Its not going to be an overnight collapse in the economy, but I believe that a 30-50% decline in housing bubble areas is coming, bringing with it lots of hurt all around!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-1153531528186385252006-07-22T02:25:00.000+01:002006-07-22T02:25:00.000+01:00cheaper housing will be good for many. much highe...cheaper housing will be good for many. much higher disposible income. One friend says his mortgage takes up "most" of his income. another doens't go out at all anymore because he can't afford it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-1153531427740146982006-07-22T02:23:00.000+01:002006-07-22T02:23:00.000+01:00The thing that kills me is that everyone can now C...The thing that kills me is that everyone can now CLEARLY see what is coming. And yet, there is still NO LEADERSHIP....on ANY problem of importance.<BR/><BR/>The politicians are still aruging about flag burning, gay marriage, stem cell research....it is infuriating.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18675105.post-1153524846680170212006-07-22T00:34:00.000+01:002006-07-22T00:34:00.000+01:00You forgot to throw bird flu into the scenario...You forgot to throw bird flu into the scenario...Bloggerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07698536465854883850noreply@blogger.com