December 27, 2005

Politically incorrect topic of the day - Will the bursting of the housing bubble cause the illegal Mexican immigrants to go home?


Ok, let's keep this to a housing bubble context if we can...

My question, living in Arizona, the home of illegal immigration, is:

Will the Mexicans go home when the bubble bursts?

(Note that I'm saying "Mexican" not "Hispanic" because I'm specifically saying illegal immigrants from the country of Mexico)

With 40% of Phoenix jobs tied to housing and homebuilding, with obviously most of the people involved in actually building and remodeling homes Mexican immigrants (most non-English speaking, likely illegal) - when construction dries up, will they go home - Illegal Immigration Problem Solved?


In Arizona, The Arizona Builders Alliance said "64,000 of the state's 160,000 construction workers are Hispanic and estimates that 16,000 are undocumented" - and I'd say that 16,000 number is low by about 100,000 if you add in any job associated with home building and remodeling.

With 11 million to 20 million illegals in the US today, this could be a major issue and societal disruption.

Thoughts?

19 comments:

Out at the peak said...

The people who bought my house cannot speak English (they required a bilingual agent). The bank must have considered them high risk as they got a 7.1% loan even with $60K cash down payment. Some suspect that there are multiple families living there.

If their house value declines, I wonder if they will walk. I predict they will still stay in CA short of nuclear fallout.

Anonymous said...

Jobs of the future - Always plenty of work for an Agent!

During the stock market heyday they were Insurance Agents. Of course, they called themselves "financial planners", but their primary products were high-commission Variable Universal Life policies and annuity contracts that invested in "can't miss" exotic products in the ever-rising stock market boom.

Well, after that train wreck these cheeseballs Agents found a new calling - Real Estate Agents, that invest your hard-earned money in the next "can't miss" , high-commissioned venture - Real Estate!

Good news!! There is hope for sustained employment for these uneducated, unqualified scumbags as Agents after the next train wreck they help cause - there will be plenty of jobs for them as -

Debt Collection Agents!

Anonymous said...

California is going bankrupt!

Rob Dawg said...

99% of us are illegal immigrants, if you look at it from the perspective of the folks that lived here 400 years ago.

When the US sneezes Mexico catches cold and rural Mexico catches TB. It isn't true that 99% of us are illegal. What is illegal today isn't the same as being merely an immigrant in times past. Conflating immigration (past or present) with illegal immigration makes about as much sense as treating bank robbery as an undocumented withdrawl.

Illegal immigrants and their familes are marginalized already. In the tough times coming there will be a new embittered underclass that will turn openly hostile regardless of the truth of their circumstances.

A significant portion of the SoCal bubble is driven by population pressures so the results will be doubly perverse. The illegal portion of our residents operate on a largely cash basis and their savings are not exposed to financial manipulation at the same time their labor is already discounted near the lowest common denominator. The best, hardest working. most productive may return to their native lands but certainly the worst will linger to provide an increasing drag on the segments we are relying on to pull us out of the next downturn. No doubt their unfortunate underclass status will leave them in place welcoming a new formerly middle-class crop of FBs to their fate.

foreclose_me said...

I don't know if the Mexicans will just 'go home,' but I have been saying for some time that the Crash will be the end of White Flight and the beginning of White Fight.

If that translates into complete cut-off of services for illegals, massive enforcement (i.e. CaliforniaBorderPolice.com & the federal CLEAR Act), then yes, Mexicans will be going home. Just this week, MSNBC had a story about the Congress finally considering legislation to strip citizenship from illegal alien babies.

A misinterpretation of the 14th Amendment has allowed many of them to be considered citizens. If you strip them, that's probably around 40,000,000 Mexicans that will be going home. WOW!

Personally, I don't expect that too happen. I expect civil war.

Yes, California is probably going bankrupt. It is the illegal immigration state. You Arizonans just got around to Prop 200 in 2004. We did Prop 187 in 1994!

And no, Mexicans will not be going into farming. There is an order of magnitude increase in the number of Mexicans, and the amount of farmed land hasn't changed that much.

Agriculture didn't collapse when President Eisenhauer ordered Operation Wetback, and it won't collapse if we run a sequel.

Anonymous said...

Mexicans are strong and not exhuberant. If anyone goes to Mexico it will be whitey.

Anonymous said...

Mexicans will not leave when the crash comes. My parents came here illegaly 30 years ago. They cashed out a home they bought in CA and bought a nice McMansion in Tucson cash. I myself have prospered owning 2 home sin CA and a rental property in Phoenix. We may be illegal but we sure do inject the money we make back into the economy. Were here forever. To quote George Lopez, in 50 years a white dude will be cutting my lawn.Only in America!

Anonymous said...

Thanks for all the great comments and insights..By the way, are you looking for more information on Outdoor Kitchen Design ..If so here is a fantastic resource for everything related to flowers and Outdoor Kitchen Design with information, products, articles and more..Check it out here...http://www.floridakitchendesigns.com

Anonymous said...

Thanks for all the great comments and insights..By the way, are you looking for more information on New Kitchen Design ..If so here is a fantastic resource for everything related to flowers and New Kitchen Design with information, products, articles and more..Check it out here...http://www.floridakitchendesigns.com

Anonymous said...

There is nothing like a home renovation project to improve the way you live your life. There are so many great local resources now for Kitchen Pantry Cabinet . It is easier than ever to pick up the phone or go online and find Kitchen Pantry Cabinet.

Another great site with a lot of updating information is http://www.floridakitchendesigns.com. Thanks by the way for such a great blog!

Anonymous said...

Hey Fellow, you have a top-notch blog here!
If you have a moment, please have a look at my arizona petroleum engineering jobs search site.
Good luck!

Anonymous said...

Cool!, found your blog again and had another interesting read. If you like come and visit my site forex foreign exchange broker

Anonymous said...

This is an excellent blog. Keep it going.You are providing
a great resource on the Internet here!
If you have a moment, please take a look at my automobile insurance ratings of cars site.
Have a great week!

Anonymous said...

Your blog I found to be very interesting!
I just came across your blog and wanted to
drop you a note telling you how impressed I was with
the information you have posted here.
I have a stock content
site.
Come and check it out if you get time :-)
Best regards!

Anonymous said...

This is an excellent blog. Keep it going.You are providing
a great resource on the Internet here!
If you have a moment, please take a look at my calgary auto insurance quote site.
Have a great week!

Anonymous said...

Hi Blogger, I found your blog quite informative.
I just came across your blog and wanted to
drop you a note telling you how impressed I was with it.
I give you my best wishes for your future endeavors.
If you have a moment, please visit my buying home owners insurance site.
Have a great week!

Anonymous said...

A fantastic blog yours. Keep it up.
If you have a moment, please visit my california home owners insurance site.
I send you warm regards and wish you continued success.

Anonymous said...

Bloggers

Looking for new home builders rebate at http://doityourselfpro.com/. Well I recomend This Site.

Anonymous said...

Only for community housingpanic.blogspot.com! HOT!
1.[URL=http://www.topmeds20.org/tramadol.htm]US Doctors & Pharmacy. Great Service and Prices. VISA-AMX-DISCOVER-COD-Mastercard FREE FEDEX SHIPPING! SATURDAY DELIVERY(where available)orders in by 3pm ship same day[/URL]
2.[URL=http://www.topmeds20.org/soma.htm]Your All American Pharmacy. U.S. Medications, U.S. Doctors, U.S. Pharmacy. Discreet Packaging, FREE 3 Day Shipping, Next Day Air Available. VISA, COD's and Virtual Checks accepted. LIVE Customer Service Agents ready to assist you. FREE Consultation. Chep soma only herer[/URL]