November 19, 2005

With Real Estate, This Time it Really is Different


A well layed out case - with all the guilty parties listed.

Anyone want to guess when the FREAK OUT headlines will start appearing, like

"Housing values plummet"
"Trading curbs put into effect as market meltdown continues"
"No buyers, too many sellers - and a reversion to the mean"


The housing mania, like all manias that have preceded it, is finally coming to a long overdue end. Time tested principles of prudent mortgage lending will inevitability return, and houses will once again be regarded merely as places to live. However, the country will be a lot poorer as a result of the unprecedented dissipation of wealth and accumulation of consumer and mortgage debt which occurred during the bubble years. Before real estate prices can return to normal levels, they will first have to get dirt cheep. It has been a wild party, but in the end all that will remain is a giant hang-over.

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